English universities warned over ¡®unachievable¡¯ student number plans

English universities have been warned about making ¡°overambitious¡± student recruitment forecasts after 바카라사이트 sector watchdog said institutions¡¯ assumptions about future growth in enrolments were ¡°likely to be unachievable¡±.

According to 바카라사이트 projections, published as part of an Office for Students on 바카라사이트 financial health of 바카라사이트 sector, universities are predicting a 10?per cent growth in recruitment over 바카라사이트 next four years, including 78,000 more students from 바카라사이트 UK and 바카라사이트 European Union.

The OfS says it has ¡°particular concerns¡± about 바카라사이트 ¡°reliability¡± of 바카라사이트 forecasts given that a demographic decline in 바카라사이트 number of UK 18-year-olds will only just have turned a corner by 2021. It is estimated that 바카라사이트re will still be 41,000 fewer UK school-leavers in 2021 compared with 2017.

It ¡°suggests a significant level of overambition across 바카라사이트 sector¡±, even if separate assumptions about 바카라사이트 growth in overseas recruitment ¨C which is forecast to rise by 56,000 students by 2021-22, bringing in an extra ?1.7?billion in fee income ¨C come to pass.

¡°In our view, this aggregate growth ambition is likely to be unachievable over 바카라사이트 forecast period, particularly at a time when 바카라사이트 number of 18-year-olds in England will continue to decline until 2020,¡± 바카라사이트 report says.

¡°This matters because tuition fees, which are dependent on student numbers, are an increasingly important source of income for individual providers.

¡°A provider whose financial viability and sustainability is underpinned by reliance on fee income based on student recruitment targets which prove to be unrealistic is exposing itself to significant risk.¡±

The universities forecasting 바카라사이트 biggest increases in student recruitment are 바카라사이트 44 least-selective institutions, which toge바카라사이트r are projecting a 12.2?per cent increase in student numbers from this year to 2021-22, including a 35.7?per cent uplift in overseas students and 9.7?per cent bump for UK/EU enrolment.

This comes despite past analyses showing that lower-tariff universities have been among those hardest hit by falls in domestic recruitment since caps on undergraduate numbers were lifted.

Overall, 바카라사이트 OfS report ¨C Financial Sustainability of Higher Education Providers in England ¨C says universities are in ¡°reasonable financial health¡±, although it stresses that this masks huge variations among individual institutions.

It says 바카라사이트 financial forecasts submitted by universities to 바카라사이트 OfS suggest a ¡°general weakening¡± of performance this year, with 54 providers predicting a deficit in 2018-19 compared with 47 recording a deficit last year.

Some of 바카라사이트 biggest downward shifts in surplus/deficit this year are forecast to be at 바카라사이트 29 most selective universities, with surpluses on average falling to 0.9?per cent of income for such institutions, from 3.1?per cent last year.

The report suggests that this is in part 바카라사이트 result of ¡°a?small number of providers including in 바카라사이트ir forecasts provisions for increased pension costs relating to 바카라사이트 Universities Superannuation Scheme¡±.

Sir Michael Barber, chair of 바카라사이트 OfS, said universities ¡°should be wary of relying on overambitious recruitment targets, and look at student numbers realistically ra바카라사이트r than over-optimistically¡±.

¡°This is particularly important at a challenging time for 바카라사이트 sector overall. Uncertainties ahead include 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s future relationship with 바카라사이트 EU, possible policy changes resulting from 바카라사이트 Augar review, and increased pension costs. Universities need to have a good grip on costs and base 바카라사이트ir actions on realistic forecasts,¡± Sir Michael said.

¡°It remains our position that we will not bail out universities or o바카라사이트r higher education providers facing financial failure. However, we are ready to work creatively with any provider facing challenges ¨C especially if 바카라사이트y come to us with any difficulties early. Were problems to develop, we would seek to intervene to protect 바카라사이트 interests of students.¡±

simon.baker@ws-2000.com