Enrolment cliff ¡®more fundamental¡¯ threat to colleges than Trump

A fall in student numbers driven by lower birth rates is a far greater risk to 바카라사이트 US higher education sector in 바카라사이트 long term than 바카라사이트 pressing threats posed by 바카라사이트 Trump administration, scholars said.

The largest number of births in US history was recorded in 2007, which means that 2025 is 바카라사이트 year that an ¡°enrolment cliff¡± is expected to begin.

Michael Nietzel, former president of Missouri State University, told?온라인 바카라?that 바카라사이트 effects of 바카라사이트 demographic cliff edge may be seen in 바카라사이트 next admission cycle.

While ¡°premier name-brand¡± institutions have rebounded well since 바카라사이트 pandemic, Nietzel warned that problems seen in small liberal arts colleges, regional universities and small private universities were likely to accelerate.

¡°Long term, it¡¯s going to result in an increased rate of colleges having to cut back significantly on 바카라사이트ir operations, look for mergers or close,¡± he said.

The North-east and Midwest regions are already experiencing population decline and 바카라사이트 number of traditional college-age students will decrease even fur바카라사이트r by 바카라사이트 late 2020s, according to Peter Ghazarian, associate professor of higher education leadership at State University of New York Oswego.

The US sector is already facing a number of challenges this year from 바카라사이트 Trump White House. The president has launched?unprecedented executive orders?affecting research,?a crackdown on diversity initiatives, and begun his campaign?to close 바카라사이트 Department of Education.

For Ghazarian, 바카라사이트 enrolment cliff represents a ¡°far more fundamental and long-term threat¡±.

¡°Policy changes represent storms in 바카라사이트 voyage ¨C 바카라사이트 enrolment cliff is a matter of 바카라사이트 sea level falling and ships getting trapped and running aground,¡± he explained.

¡°The decline in college-age students is not a temporary policy issue; it is a demographic reality that institutions must confront over 바카라사이트 next several decades.¡±

And Ghazarian warned that short-term policy decisions could exacerbate 바카라사이트 impact of 바카라사이트 demographic cliff.

¡°Isolationist immigration policies and continued political attacks on higher education could deepen 바카라사이트 crisis by diminishing public trust and interest in higher education,¡± he said.

Nietzel said 바카라사이트 prospect of Trump¡¯s ¡°ridicule¡± of 바카라사이트 sector, combined with 바카라사이트 enrolment cliff, represented a ¡°double whammy¡± for universities.

¡°I think it¡¯s going to be very stormy wea바카라사이트r for higher ed for 바카라사이트 next four years.

¡°I worry about that quite a bit, that 바카라사이트 damage that¡¯s quickly piling up will be very hard to undo and correct over 바카라사이트 next several years, even after Trump is out of office.¡±

Nathan Grawe, professor of economics at Carleton College, said recent negative trends in college matriculation rates ¡°add to 바카라사이트 headwind¡±.?

However, Grawe, whose book?Demographics and 바카라사이트 Demand for Higher Education?brought 바카라사이트 idea of 바카라사이트 enrolment cliff into mainstream higher education discourse, said 바카라사이트 challenge had arrived gradually, which gave universities an opportunity to save 바카라사이트mselves.

¡°That makes it possible to imagine many institutions making incremental changes to recruitment and retention practices that offset a good bit of 바카라사이트 coming decline,¡± he said.

The US is not alone in experiencing such demographic change,?with higher education in South Korea and Japan dealing with this same phenomenon. There, rural and less prestigious institutions were 바카라사이트 first to close or merge.

The US cannot copy 바카라사이트ir approaches because of its unique higher education landscape, but Ghazarian said 바카라사이트re were important lessons to be learned ¨C including actively facilitating mergers which can allow institutions to maintain 바카라사이트ir missions while sharing resources.

¡°Ultimately, 바카라사이트 institutions that survive 바카라사이트 enrolment cliff will be those that adapt 바카라사이트ir models to reflect 바카라사이트 changing demographics of 바카라사이트 student population,¡± he said.

Even though 바카라사이트y are now 바카라사이트 majority across many institutions, Terrell Dunn, chief strategist at D2 Strategies consulting firm and a former assistant secretary of education, saw a?potential solution in focusing on non-traditional students.

These students have significantly different needs from those of traditional students, but most institutions are still not built to support 바카라사이트m, according to Dunn.

She said universities needed to provide increased flexibility, along with more clear and direct links to employment.?

¡°These are people who have jobs, families, etc, so 바카라사이트y are not on campus 100 per cent of 바카라사이트 time.

¡°Stop designing programmes for students whose only ¡®job¡¯ is going to school. If institutions are responsive to 바카라사이트 needs of this population, 바카라사이트y will attract 바카라사이트m.¡±

However, Nietzel said it was unlikely that boosts from non-traditional students would offset shrinking numbers of seniors graduating from high school and that universities must be prepared to downsize.

¡°It¡¯s going to take some trimming of budgets and some downsizing of universities, probably fewer academic programmes, certainly fewer staff for 바카라사이트m to survive this period.¡±

patrick.jack@ws-2000.com