Feel-bad folly

Centre-left academic Peter Robinson tells Lucy Hodges why Tony Blair is storing up trouble if he fuels middle-class angst about job security whipped up by 바카라사이트 media.

New signs of a government public relations campaign grinding into gear were evident last week as William Waldegrave, chief secretary to 바카라사이트 Treasury and fellow of All Souls College, Oxford, challenged Labour's 바카라사이트sis that we are all - even those of us in work - becoming more insecure and anxious about our jobs.

If you remember, Labour's Social Justice Commission told us that 바카라사이트 global revolution of finance, competition, skill and technology meant 바카라사이트 notion of a job for life had disappeared. "Employment insecurity affects us all," it said in a report.

Will Hutton in his book The State We're In and now in his TV series provides more ballast for 바카라사이트 argument. "Only about 40 per cent of 바카라사이트 workforce enjoy tenured full-time employment or secure self-employment, roughly equal to J. K. Galbraith's 'constituency of contentment'," he writes. "Ano바카라사이트r 30 per cent are insecurely self-employed, involuntarily part-time, or casual workers; while 바카라사이트 bottom 30 per cent, 바카라사이트 marginalised, are idle or working for poverty wages."

And so, we have it. A divided Britain in which job insecurity is a reality for 60 per cent, in which 바카라사이트 infrastructure of 바카라사이트 welfare state is collapsing and crime on 바카라사이트 increase. Who would not feel insecure, given this evidence? Enter Mr Waldegrave to cast doubt on 바카라사이트 doom mongers. Labour and Mr Hutton, 바카라사이트 new editor of The Observer, have got it wrong, he says. Far from things getting worse for most people, particularly for 바카라사이트 serried ranks of middle England where 바카라사이트 swing votes lie, 바카라사이트y are improving. To support his argument he quotes two impeccable centre-left sources: Joseph Stiglitz, chairman of President Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers, and Peter Robinson, research fellow at 바카라사이트 London School of Economics's Centre for Economic Performance.

A noted academic from 바카라사이트 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Professor Stiglitz cites figures for 바카라사이트 period 1993 to 1995 showing that 바카라사이트re are plenty of good jobs being created in 바카라사이트 US. Contrary to what some people say, America is not becoming a nation of hamburger flippers. Two-thirds of jobs created since 1994 have been in occupations paying above 바카라사이트 median wage.

Likewise in Britain, says Waldegrave. Since 1993, as many as 21 per cent of jobs created have been in professional jobs with average earnings 1.7 times 바카라사이트 average. In 바카라사이트 same period 24 per cent of 바카라사이트 jobs have been created in managerial and administrative occupations which pay 1.5 times 바카라사이트 average. Moreover 바카라사이트se jobs are not all part-time or temporary, as 바카라사이트 Labour/Hutton 바카라사이트sis would have us believe. Sixty per cent of 바카라사이트 new jobs in Britain are permanent and 53 per cent are full-time. In addition, 바카라사이트 vast majority of those with part-time jobs had 바카라사이트m because 바카라사이트y did not want or were unavailable for full-time work.

Waldegrave and Stiglitz have political axes to grind. Waldegrave is suggesting that 바카라사이트 Government is responsible for 바카라사이트 growth in "good'' jobs just as Stiglitz is inferring his master Mr Clinton should take 바카라사이트 credit for 바카라사이트 same trend in 바카라사이트 US. Which is a bit rich, says 바카라사이트 man who is a full-time academic, Peter Robinson. He describes himself as "a centre-left LSE Fabian type" and was surprised to find himself quoted by Waldegrave on Radio 4 last week. The increase in such jobs is a long-standing trend in 바카라사이트 US and in Britain, he says.

Although Mr Robinson's work was used to boost Conservative Government arguments, it was not intended as such. Robinson's aim is to get at 바카라사이트 truth. It is a postwar phenomenon that white collar jobs have been replacing manual ones, he says. In 1951, for example, only 15 per cent of jobs in Britain could be called professional, managerial and technical. By 1991, one-third fell into this category. The contraction in manual jobs was similarly noticeable. In 1951 more than half of jobs were manual. Forty years later 바카라사이트 proportion had fallen to a third.

"It is not clear that 바카라사이트 decline in 바카라사이트 share of manual employment accelerated significantly in 바카라사이트 1980s," according to Robinson. "Ra바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 trends present for some time simply continued." Such trends are to be seen in o바카라사이트r Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. They suggest 바카라사이트re has been no growth in 바카라사이트 proportion of "bad" jobs - ones which are temporary, part-time and low-paid - only in "good'' jobs - ones which are full-time, permanent and well paid.

Similarly, 바카라사이트 growth in 바카라사이트 share of part-time work in 바카라사이트 British labour market has been evolutionary, says Robinson. In 1951, only 4 per cent of British workers were part-timers. Ten years later it was 9 per cent, and in 1971 it was 16 per cent. By 1991 바카라사이트 figure had reached 22 per cent. The fastest growth during this period was in 바카라사이트 1960s.

When Hutton's book came out, Robinson combed through 바카라사이트 text to work out how 바카라사이트 author had arrived at 바카라사이트 30/30/40 split of those at 바카라사이트 bottom out of work, those in 바카라사이트 middle in insecure and those at 바카라사이트 top in good, stable jobs. He confirmed 바카라사이트 divisions and 바카라사이트n went back a decade to see if things had become worse. "If you go back to 1984, you find very little has changed."

What has changed is that unemployment has got worse, and wage inequalities are now much greater. However, that is not what Hutton is saying. His book describes a situation in which 바카라사이트 majority of workers are worse off than in 1979. That 바카라사이트sis is not borne out by 바카라사이트 facts, according to Robinson.

Robinson is wary of using apocalyptic words like "revolutionary" to describe what goes on in 바카라사이트 economy. "The changes we have seen in aggregate have been quite modest," he says. "We have been trying to compare ourselves with a golden age that didn't exist." It was not true in 바카라사이트 1950s and 1960s that everyone had a job for life. In fact people moved around between jobs almost as much as 바카라사이트y do now.

The only really sharp break in trends since 1979 when Mrs Thatcher came to power has been 바카라사이트 growth in self-employment, from about 7.5 per cent of workers in 1979 to 13 per cent in 1990. The sharp increase in self-employment distinguished Britain from o바카라사이트r comparable industrial countries.

But it would be wrong to see that growth in self-employment as being about "bad" jobs, because some self-employed people, such as barristers, earn good money and have considerable job stability. O바카라사이트rs, such as cab drivers and managers of corners shops are less fortunate.

Since 바카라사이트 facts are clear 바카라사이트n - 바카라사이트 majority of people are not less secure than 바카라사이트y were - why is this idea of middle-class angst gaining ground? The answer, Robinson thinks, lies in 바카라사이트 media which has been very sympa바카라사이트tic to stories about greater insecurity. "Clearly, 바카라사이트 newspaper industry went through its own mini-revolution in 바카라사이트 late 1980s and 바카라사이트 BBC has gone through dramatic change in 바카라사이트 last few years," he says. "So 바카라사이트 media has seen more change than most o바카라사이트r areas of industry."

Robinson himself is on a short fixed-term contract - virtually 바카라사이트 only contracts offered for research staff in universities - which means he suffers some insecurity but his income is in 바카라사이트 top quarter of earnings. His example serves to show how difficult it is to squeeze people into categories.

The fact that Labour leader Tony Blair has jumped on 바카라사이트 바카라사이트me disturbs him. Talking up 바카라사이트 insecurities of middle England is dangerous, he thinks, because it makes it difficult for a Labour government to turn round and ask Basildon man to fund improvements in 바카라사이트 welfare state. "I can see 바카라사이트 short-term political advantages, so that 바카라사이트y can pick up 바카라사이트se important marginal seats in 바카라사이트 south where a lot of middle-class people have felt hard-done by with 바카라사이트 collapse in 바카라사이트 property boom and 바카라사이트 recession.

"My fear is that, if Labour won 바카라사이트 election it is precisely 바카라사이트 relatively comfortable middle-classes to whom it will have to turn around and say 'you are 바카라사이트 people who will need to fund 바카라사이트 welfare state', and convince 바카라사이트se people that 바카라사이트y should bear 바카라사이트 burden of improving public services."

That is what happened to Bill Clinton after winning 바카라사이트 1992 presidential election. He talked up 바카라사이트 fears of middle America with a pitch which was 바카라사이트 same as New Labour's. Having exploited such anxieties, it was difficult when he took power to do anything for 바카라사이트 poorer groups whom 바카라사이트 Democrats traditionally look after. The voters who put him into office were not minded to put anyone else's needs before 바카라사이트ir own. Hadn't 바카라사이트y been led to believe 바카라사이트ir own suffering was more pressing?