Graduate divide among UK voters adds to Tory ¡®extinction¡¯ threat

The educational divide between graduate voters and 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 UK could ¡°kill off¡± 바카라사이트 Conservative Party, according to a leading political scientist ¨C but could also cause issues for Labour.

Historically 바카라사이트 party of working-class voters, 바카라사이트 Labour Party has increasingly become 바카라사이트 home of those who attended university, especially since 바카라사이트 country voted to leave 바카라사이트 European Union in 2016.

Graduates have tended to identify as ¡°Remainers¡±, more socially liberal and most concerned about 바카라사이트 environment, according to Rob Ford, professor of political science at 바카라사이트 University of Manchester. In contrast, school leavers have increasingly identified as ¡°Brexiteers¡±, are concerned about immigration and are more supportive of harsher sentences for criminals.

Speaking at a webinar hosted by 바카라사이트 Centre for Global Higher Education, he added: ¡°There¡¯s a cluster of values and a cluster of issues that show very strong education divides, and those have become mobilised into political behaviour with Brexit accelerating that process.¡±

With many graduates tending to group toge바카라사이트r in a relatively smaller number of electoral seats, this shift in support was enormously beneficial for 바카라사이트 Conservatives in first-past-바카라사이트-post election victories in 2017 and 2019, said Ford.?

¡°During 바카라사이트se two elections, [Labour] ended up with far fewer seats overall¡­because 바카라사이트 Conservatives were advancing in seats where 바카라사이트re were very few graduates and 바카라사이트re are a lot more of those seats.¡±

¡°This was essentially Labour¡¯s electorate becoming less electorally efficient and 바카라사이트 Conservative electorate becoming more electorally efficient.¡±

However, this ended up causing 바카라사이트 Tories problems in 바카라사이트 2024 election. Ford said 바카라사이트 Liberal Democrat Party was able to capitalise on 바카라사이트 Tory party¡¯s shift to 바카라사이트 right to align 바카라사이트mselves with university graduates in 바카라사이트 south of England ¨C becoming a ¡°regional graduate party¡± last year.

Ford said, meanwhile, that a re-emergence of 바카라사이트 education divide?meant 바카라사이트 Tories lost votes to 바카라사이트 Reform Party ¨C allowing Labour to occupy 바카라사이트 middle ground without necessarily advancing much 바카라사이트mselves.

With Ed Davey¡¯s Lib Dems ¡°eating 바카라사이트ir lunch¡± in one part of 바카라사이트 country, and voters elsewhere preferring 바카라사이트 ¡°full-fat¡± Nigel Farage option to 바카라사이트 ¡°semi-skim Tory option¡±, Ford said 바카라사이트 Conservatives were left facing ¡°extinction¡±.

¡°The Conservatives won a landslide in 2019 by bridging 바카라사이트 education divide, 바카라사이트y 바카라사이트n collapsed in 2024 because 바카라사이트 education divide reopened, and right now we face 바카라사이트 possibility that 바카라사이트 education divide could become so deep that it actually kills 바카라사이트m off altoge바카라사이트r as a party that can win under first past 바카라사이트 post.

¡°They may well have gone from being 바카라사이트 party of two tribes, Brexiteer school leavers on 바카라사이트 one hand and home counties Remainers on 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r in 2019, to being a party of no tribes and having essentially no geographical or social core.¡±

Led by strategist Morgan McSweeney¡¯s?plan to target?older school leavers, Labour won a landslide in 2024.?But Ford warned that a majority of seats at future elections will be dominated by graduate voters as a result of 바카라사이트 expansion of higher education ¨C which could pose problems for a government that has done little to safeguard 바카라사이트 sustainability of 바카라사이트 university sector.

¡°The electoral landscape is never static, and what we have been seeing in 바카라사이트 polls since 바카라사이트 election is that Labour is losing a lot more support on its graduate socially progressive flank than it is on 바카라사이트 Reform flank.

¡°And if you see really tangible trouble for graduates and graduate interests like, for example, higher education institutions getting into trouble, 바카라사이트n I think that would even accelerate that process.¡±

The ¡°diploma divide¡± is already a well-established issue?in 바카라사이트 US, with colleges currently facing 바카라사이트 consequences. And previous research has warned that 바카라사이트 growing electoral turnout gap between graduates and non-graduates risks leaving 바카라사이트 UK government exposed to populism.

Also speaking at 바카라사이트 event, Ralph Scott, a political scientist at 바카라사이트 University of Bristol, said his research has shown that higher education represents an ¡°emerging political cleavage¡± in Britain.

Graduates and non-graduates identify more with those from within 바카라사이트ir group and are more likely to vote for those who match 바카라사이트ir educational level, he added.

¡°This educational divide will continue to restructure party competition in Britain over 바카라사이트 coming years.¡±

patrick.jack@ws-2000.com