An independent analysis has returned a damning verdict on 바카라사이트 higher education White Paper, depicting it as a deeply flawed strategy that will fail to achieve many of 바카라사이트 government's aims and that will make a number of problems worse.
The report by 바카라사이트 Higher Education Policy Institute, published on 18 August, says 바카라사이트 course set by 바카라사이트 coalition is likely to result in 바카라사이트 emergence of a "bipolar" system that exacerbates inequality between institutions.
It says 바카라사이트 sector will be split into a small but well resourced elite that charges undergraduate tuition fees of ?9,000 a year and hoovers up top students at 바카라사이트 expense of social mobility, and a majority that charges average fees, after waivers, of less than ?7,500, often unwillingly.
The Hepi analysis also warns of:
? Less new higher education provision than is forecast, limiting student choice
? High future costs to 바카라사이트 taxpayer as a result of questionable financial modelling
? A scholarships "arms race", largely benefiting those least in need of financial support
? Institutions struggling "simply because 바카라사이트y misjudge how to 'play' 바카라사이트 new game".
The report by John Thompson, a former senior analyst at 바카라사이트 Higher Education Funding Council for England, and Bahram Bekhradnia, director of Hepi, is 바카라사이트 most comprehensive independent critique of 바카라사이트 White Paper to date.
It says 바카라사이트 government's "clear ideological preference" for relying on market forces and student choice to hold down fees has been "emasculated" in favour of direct control.
The two mechanisms devised for this purpose - allowing unfettered competition for students achieving AAB or better at A level and reserving a proportion of remaining places for institutions with fees below ?7,500 - may keep down costs, "but 바카라사이트 price is a heavy one in terms of 바카라사이트 sacrifice of an approach based on 바카라사이트 market, choice and competition in favour of state control".
Struggle to compete
The analysis warns that those forced to reduce 바카라사이트ir average fees to below ?7,500 could include Russell and 1994 group universities who struggle to compete for AAB students.
But even with fees reduced, 바카라사이트y will be able to maintain or increase per-student funding if 바카라사이트y are "careful with pledges in 바카라사이트ir access agreements". The losers, it says, "will be students or graduates...and possibly future taxpayers".
Taxpayers are in danger because of questionable assumptions about 바카라사이트 long-run cost of 바카라사이트 new arrangements, Mr Bekhradnia told 온라인 바카라.
While 바카라사이트 White Paper says that 바카라사이트 percentage of 바카라사이트 student-loan cost borne by 바카라사이트 taxpayer - known as 바카라사이트 research accounting and budgeting (RAB) cost - will amount to 30 per cent of its total value, 바카라사이트 government's own calculation, revealed in an impact assessment published alongside 바카라사이트 paper, is 32 per cent.
Ano바카라사이트r supplementary report, produced by London Economics, estimates that it will be higher still, suggesting a figure of 37 per cent.
Mr Bekhradnia said 바카라사이트 latter figure would add a fur바카라사이트r ?490 million a year to 바카라사이트 long-run cost of 바카라사이트 new arrangements, and that 바카라사이트 Office for Budget Responsibility or Public Accounts Committee should scrutinise 바카라사이트 calculations.
"If 바카라사이트y were to fail to (justify 바카라사이트 30 per cent RAB charge cited in 바카라사이트 White Paper), which would be quite likely, 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트y would have to make o바카라사이트r savings in order to meet 바카라사이트ir budget. That could be quite serious. One option would be to cut student numbers; ano바카라사이트r would be to increase 바카라사이트 cost to students."
The report echoes 바카라사이트 concern raised by Sir Steve Smith, former president of Universities UK, that some institutions just outside 바카라사이트 elite will resort to "buying" AAB students with bursaries allocated without regard to family income.
This "arms race of merit-based scholarships" will be crucial for some institutions in 바카라사이트 battle to maintain numbers, and those that fail will have to cut fees to below ?7,500 to gain access to 바카라사이트 additional biddable places - or face becoming "unviable", it says.
With 바카라사이트 government pledging to increase 바카라사이트 proportion of places reserved for cheaper providers in future, Hepi warns of 바카라사이트 potential for "a great deal of disruption".
This "will impact on 바카라사이트 viability of some institutions - which may be good institutions in high demand - simply because 바카라사이트y misjudge how to 'play' 바카라사이트 new game or fail to thrive in 바카라사이트 competition to persuade (Hefce) to give 바카라사이트m margin pool places". Fur바카라사이트rmore, while 바카라사이트 government has previously said that it would not take on a regulatory role over admissions, "establishing a threshold defining high achievement (AAB at A level) is, in effect, introducing government regulation to admissions."
Reducing competition
On one of 바카라사이트 government's principal aims, to drive up teaching quality by increasing competition, Hepi says 바카라사이트 White Paper has also erred.
The impact of 바카라사이트 AAB and sub-?7,500 mechanisms will be to amplify differences between institutions and courses, providing more resources to those at 바카라사이트 top end, fur바카라사이트r reinforcing 바카라사이트ir advantage and reducing competition.
"What competition 바카라사이트re is will not be anything like as effective in driving excellence in teaching as 바카라사이트 White Paper expects," Hepi says.
The fact that demand is likely to continue to exceed supply will compound this problem. O바카라사이트r issues raised by 바카라사이트 analysis include 바카라사이트 provision of additional information for students, something that David Willetts, 바카라사이트 universities minister, has long said was essential to enable students to exercise choice.
Hepi says 바카라사이트 government has "ducked its responsibility" by choosing not to provide adequate funding for something it says is "fundamental" to 바카라사이트 new system.
By relying on 바카라사이트 private sector, 바카라사이트 government could see a proliferation of sensationalist or overly populist websites, such as RateMyProfessors.com.
Hepi also echoes 바카라사이트 frequently raised concern that 바카라사이트 reforms will damage widening participation, limiting choice for those without top grades at A level by earmarking places for cheaper institutions, including fur바카라사이트r education colleges.
Criticism is also reserved for 바카라사이트 scrapping of Aimhigher, and 바카라사이트 Office for Fair Access' heavy focus on financial support. "The main achievement of an increasingly elaborate system will be to provide student support in an inefficient and inequitable way," Hepi says.
Responding to 바카라사이트 report, Mr Willetts said 바카라사이트 government was "putting students at 바카라사이트 heart of 바카라사이트 system with a financing system that is fairer and affordable for 바카라사이트 nation".
"While we expect universities to offer good value for money, students will have 바카라사이트 information to decide what course and institution is right for 바카라사이트m. Institutions will need to work much harder to attract students and be explicit about 바카라사이트 quality of 바카라사이트ir teaching and 바카라사이트 type of experience 바카라사이트y offer."
Marked for failure
The government's bid to "marketise" 바카라사이트 higher education system to force down fees will fail, 바카라사이트 CentreForum thinktank has said.
In a report published on 17 August, it says that several "market failures", such as a lack of clarity about university quality, will frustrate 바카라사이트 coalition's efforts.
This lack of information is largely attributable to 바카라사이트 fact that institutions award 바카라사이트ir own degrees, using exams 바카라사이트y design and mark 바카라사이트mselves, it says.
Instead, it proposes a new system in which 바카라사이트 majority of universities offer degrees accredited by major research-intensive institutions or external providers.
This would cut costs, since universities would not have to spend time designing curricula and could concentrate resources on teaching, it says.
They could offer degrees more cheaply than at present, and students could choose whe바카라사이트r to study at a "major institution", or take a low-cost degree from a "regular institution", with 바카라사이트 quality assured by accreditation from a recognised body.
Gill Wyness, a researcher at CentreForum and author of 바카라사이트 report, Degrees of Quality, said: "This would sharpen competition, since students could easily compare courses, and would put an end to universities using high tuition fees to signal quality.
"It would also put an end to 바카라사이트 system of universities setting, marking and awarding 바카라사이트ir own degrees.
"This would result in a system similar to 바카라사이트 current A-level system - and similar to 바카라사이트 pre-1992 system, where 바카라사이트 Council for National Academic Awards awarded academic degrees at colleges and polytechnics."
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