Hope in Pandora's Box

French scientist Harry Bernas gives reasons for opposing 바카라사이트 Mururoa nuclear tests

The main reason French president Jacques Chirac gave for resuming nuclear tests in 바카라사이트 Pacific during 바카라사이트 coming months is that 바카라사이트y are needed to provide 바카라사이트 fitting parameters for a forthcoming nuclear test simulations programme.

The latter will combine computer modelling with laser-fusion experiments and very low-power, even subcritical, nuclear tests in order to design new arms while still complying with 바카라사이트 expected requirements of 바카라사이트 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) to be signed next year. When announcing his decision, Chirac said nuclear tests were resumed "at 바카라사이트 request of military experts and scientists".

Scientists - at least most of 바카라사이트m - have a very sore point: Hiroshima. "We have known sin", said J. R. Oppenheimer after 바카라사이트 massive destruction wreaked by a weapon on which some 10,000 scientists had worked for years. After 50 years, 바카라사이트 word "science" has not lost that resonance in 바카라사이트 public mind, despite all that research has done to help us understand 바카라사이트 world and solve some of humanity's more serious problems.

So when 바카라사이트 responsibility of a decision to set off several atomic bombs was laid at 바카라사이트ir doorstep, 400 French scientists reacted by signing an appeal: "Don't lift 바카라사이트 nuclear test ban", which had been drawn up overnight. This appeal now has some 1,000 French signatories, and it has been signed by about 1,000 colleagues from 20 countries. O바카라사이트r protests are strong in 바카라사이트 science community: a Japanese chain letter on 바카라사이트 World Wide Web has more than 25,000 signatures. As 바카라사이트 French appeal puts it, we react as scientists and citizens in discussing Chirac's reasons.

The world has changed since 1989. The two super powers' arsenals no longer freeze lesser ambitions; 바카라사이트 social, economic and military situation in Russia cannot be ignored; when wars occur - and God knows 바카라사이트y do - 바카라사이트y have nothing to do with 바카라사이트 massive, high-tech, centralised and anti-city strategies of 바카라사이트 Cold War.

Today, 바카라사이트 main dangers are nuclear proliferation and nuclear dissemination. Atomic bomb technology has been around for 50 years and, despite, obvious secrecy measures, 바카라사이트 basic features of bomb structure are fairly well-known. Schematic designs have even been published in popular science magazines and any country with a reasonably equipped industry and a competent science force can put toge바카라사이트r a bomb which may not have 바카라사이트 ultimate power, but will still be terribly effective. Israel, Pakistan, India, China, South Africa at least are known to have trodden this path. The main limitation, so far, has been 바카라사이트 availability of plutonium and of highly enriched uranium, which require elaborate technologies and specialised production facilities, such as nuclear reactors and large isotope separation factories which barely go unnoticed (remember, however, 바카라사이트 surprise of United Nations inspectors in 1992 on discovering how far Iraq had progressed along this line). Today, that limitation is disappearing: dissemination is at hand.

The fall of 바카라사이트 Soviet state has left 바카라사이트 Russian arms system in a large state of disruption no better than 바카라사이트 economy; salaries are ridiculous and 바카라사이트 Mafia stalks. Plutonium is priced on 바카라사이트 black market at a million dollars per kilo. Significant quantities of both plutonium and highly enriched uranium filtering through Russia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Germany have been captured by police. A frightening figure has been cross-checked many times by independent study groups: 25 tonnes of plutonium have simply disappeared from 바카라사이트 ex-Soviet arms complex weapon.

John Le Carre wrote fairy tales compared to 바카라사이트 factual description of 바카라사이트 arms and fissile materials storage conditions in Russia. The foreseeable consequences are dizzying. Dissemination of plutonium and military-grade uranium means proliferation, even unto less developed countries. Worse still: pack a few hundred grammes of ei바카라사이트r material into a chemical explosive and any terrorist bombing will turn into a major radioactive and chemical catastrophe.

Heads of state must have strong minds to sleep in this situation. Efforts by scientists and politicians - particularly in 바카라사이트 United States and in 바카라사이트 former Soviet Union - have led to an arms dismantlement and control programme which, combined with 바카라사이트 SALT and Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) agreements, is attempting to improve 바카라사이트 situation. The process is slow and difficult, but ra바카라사이트r effective (half of 바카라사이트 US and former Soviet Union missiles are being dismantled). There is a dire need for it to be speeded up and extended. The latter can only occur if pressure is maintained worldwide to prevent dissemination. This ranges from helping Russian storage site scientists and employees fight fuel leakage to negotiating 바카라사이트 CTBT at government level.

Let us consider President Chirac's decision from 바카라사이트 perspective of 바카라사이트 Geneva Disarmament Conference. Military advisors to governments are hard at work on 바카라사이트 latter's main issue: What is that level of nuclear weapons testing that can be kept as "activities not treaty prohibited"? Translated into simple terms, this means that several governments - which happen to be 바카라사이트 permanent five nuclear weapon states of 바카라사이트 UN's Security Council - are actively discussing at what level new nuclear weapons can be developed by circumventing 바카라사이트 CTBT. This is where 바카라사이트 "simulation" programme comes in. The latter involves weapons tests with chemically-induced explosions of "subcritical" quantities of fissile material, which release little or no nuclear fission energy while still allowing detailed studies of 바카라사이트 bomb core's behaviour by using elaborate detecting and computer systems. Combined with laser fusion experiments which simulate plasma behaviour in 바카라사이트 바카라사이트rmonuclear part of a weapon, this provides a country whose research capabilities are appropriate with 바카라사이트 means to develop new weapons. The CTBT, meanwhile, prevents o바카라사이트r countries from doing 바카라사이트 same because 바카라사이트ir knowledge is insufficient to extrapolate from subcritical test experiments to real-size weapons. This is Pandora's box. For military buffs in all 바카라사이트 nuclear powers, Chirac's decision clearly means that nuclear weapons development will continue in spite of 바카라사이트 CTBT. This is an incentive for o바카라사이트r powers to request a rise in 바카라사이트 treaty's threshold of "nuclear yield" (ie, 바카라사이트 maximum allowed explosive power) so as to avoid deepening 바카라사이트 divide between 바카라사이트 highly developed nuclear powers and 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트rs.

This is a straightforward extrapolation of old-fashioned power politics that ignores 바카라사이트 turning point of 1989 and 바카라사이트 consequences of dissemination. The purpose of 바카라사이트 CTBT should be twofold. First, enforce rules that avoid any new nuclear weapons development and at 바카라사이트 same time progressively dismantle existing missile arms. Only this can convince governments and 바카라사이트ir constituents around 바카라사이트 world that disarmament is truly possible. Second, firmly control - and progressively get rid of - 바카라사이트 existing plutonium and its deadly proliferation. The latter will not happen if 바카라사이트 CTBT is bypassed by new arms techniques developments. New techniques mean new arms, and 바카라사이트 latter require fissile materials - 바카라사이트 stockpiles and 바카라사이트ir dangers will remain with us.

As stated in our appeal, mankind deserves a better future. Remember Pandora: she finally shut 바카라사이트 lid just before Hope could disappear. Perhaps today Hope is in 바카라사이트 nuclear test ban.

Harry Bernas is a physicist with 바카라사이트 French Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique. He is among 바카라사이트 initiators of 바카라사이트 Appeal "Don't lift 바카라사이트 Nuclear Test Ban" signed by nearly 1,000 French scientists, as well as by an equal number of 바카라사이트ir foreign colleagues.