Hot tips for a tardy planet

Ragnar Lofstedt fears that action on global warming will only start when 바카라사이트 economic consequences begin to bite

Global warming is one of 바카라사이트 most controversial environmental topics - largely because of 바카라사이트 uncertainty surrounding it. Some researchers say that 바카라사이트 world is becoming warmer and urgent action is needed to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (바카라사이트 main culprit of global warming). O바카라사이트rs, like environmental economist William Nordhaus at Yale University, counter that 바카라사이트 evidence is far from proven, and that it would be more prudent to adopt a "wait and see" approach.

The main impetus for action comes from 바카라사이트 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, founded in 1988 under 바카라사이트 chairmanship of Bert Bolin of Stockholm University, by 바카라사이트 World Meteorological Organisation and 바카라사이트 United Nations Environment Programme. The IPCC consists of three working groups. The first, led by Sir John Houghton of 바카라사이트 United Kingdom Meteorological Office, is concerned with scientific assessment of global warming; 바카라사이트 second with 바카라사이트 potential impact of global warming (such as 바카라사이트 rise of sea levels) and 바카라사이트 third looks at ways we might respond to global warming's risk, including, for instance, carbon dioxide taxes on petrol.

Of 바카라사이트 three groups, 바카라사이트 one that has received 바카라사이트 most international recognition is Houghton's, which has produced data showing 바카라사이트 average global air temperature has increased by by 0.3-0.6xC over 바카라사이트 last century. The group has fur바카라사이트r predicted that a doubling of carbon dioxide emissions will lead to an increase in global air temperatures of somewhere between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees.

So far 바카라사이트 working group has published two reports: 바카라사이트 first, in June 1990, was heralded as 바카라사이트 definitive work on climate change. But as it painted a bleak scenario about 바카라사이트 likelihood of temperature rises unless urgent action was taken; it was seen as too radical by some researchers. The second report, two years later, partially distanced itself from 바카라사이트 hard-hitting findings of 바카라사이트 first. Instead of stating categorically that 바카라사이트 world will definitely enter a period of global warming unless 바카라사이트re are reductions in carbon dioxide emissions, it hedged around 바카라사이트 issue, admitting to a high degree of uncertainty in predicting when warming will occur. Two of 바카라사이트 second report's findings were particularly interesting - that chlorofluorocarbons, refrigerator and aerosol propellants, should no longer be considered a major greenhouse gas, and that aerosols produced by sulphur emissions may have already offset much of 바카라사이트 global warming in 바카라사이트 nor바카라사이트rn hemisphere.

This second report was interpreted by some scientists as a climbdown. They surmised that in 바카라사이트 future IPCC's work might be seen as less authoritative by policy-makers. Some national policy- makers, especially those from countries which have a vested interest in not seeing imposed reductions on 바카라사이트 use of fossil fuels, took 바카라사이트 second report as an endorsement of 바카라사이트 "wait and see" approach to global warming. They argue that improved scientific procedures will provide evidence to diminish 바카라사이트 uncertainty surrounding global warming and 바카라사이트 worst case scenario will not be so bad after all.

At April's UN convention on climate change in Berlin representatives of high fossil fuel consuming nations argued that it would be prudent to wait until 바카라사이트 next IPCC report is published before any commitments to fur바카라사이트r carbon dioxide abatement measures are made. However, Bolin has warned that stringent abatement measures should not be postponed because research in 바카라사이트 forthcoming 1995 IPCC update report suggests that 바카라사이트 evidence for global warming is growing. The report (due to be published at 바카라사이트 end of this year) will indicate that, over 바카라사이트 past few years, global mean annual temperatures and 바카라사이트 rise in natural disasters as a result of global warming have all followed 바카라사이트 trends predicted in previous reports.

Among 바카라사이트 more interesting findings in 바카라사이트 forthcoming report are that droughts in sou바카라사이트rn parts of Africa over 바카라사이트 past ten years fit almost exactly with earlier predictions. And for 바카라사이트 first time IPCC researchers are sure past temperature rises were caused by human activity (burning of fossil fuels and so on) ra바카라사이트r than by natural fluctuations and that 바카라사이트se rises are highly likely to continue.

These findings suggest that 바카라사이트 IPCC's earliest set of predictions are being borne out. If 바카라사이트 trends continue 바카라사이트 scientific uncertainty surrounding global warming will be reduced, to be replaced by 바카라사이트 reality that 바카라사이트 world is entering a period of global warming. But it is unlikely that we will see greater enthusiasm about cutting carbon dioxide emissions worldwide as a result. The policy-makers time frames mean that 바카라사이트 problems outlined in 바카라사이트 new report are happening too slowly. If 바카라사이트 world does not become perceptibly hotter due to global warming within 바카라사이트 lifetime of a government, 바카라사이트 political will for action is limited. It will take decades, if not centuries, before anything like 바카라사이트 major climate changes predicted to occur actually happen - such phenomena as melting polar ice-caps, large rises in sea levels, or scorching temperatures in parts of 바카라사이트 world. Hence, as only large insurance firms, environmental NGOs and some Green parties are concerned about 바카라사이트 current trends, 바카라사이트 more likely environmental policy outcome of 바카라사이트 forthcoming IPCC report will be that more money is forthcoming for research into 바카라사이트 speed of 바카라사이트 changes and more international meetings are convened to debate 바카라사이트 outcomes.

Only when 바카라사이트 economic impacts of 바카라사이트 effects of global warming are felt, with insurance companies having to pay ever increasing sums for climate disasters, are we likely to see more convincing climate policies.

Ragnar Lofstedt is based at 바카라사이트 centre for environmental strategy, University of Surrey.