International students ¡®to verge on majority¡¯ at top universities

Half of students at?Australia¡¯s most prestigious universities are on?track to?be from overseas, just as?government reviews encourage smaller and higher-quality overseas student cohorts.

A study by global college chain Navitas projects that 51?per cent of?students at?Australia¡¯s oldest tertiary institution, 바카라사이트 University of Sydney, will be?overseas citizens by?2030. International students will comprise 50?per cent of?load at 바카라사이트 University of Melbourne, 48?per cent at Monash University, 46?per cent at UNSW Sydney and 44?per cent at 바카라사이트 University of Queensland.

The projections, presented at 바카라사이트 Australian International Education Conference in Adelaide, apply a 3.7?per cent compound annual growth rate to universities¡¯ international student cohorts in?2019. Domestic enrolments are projected to grow at a more sedate 1.8?per cent.

Campus views: Is your university worth 바카라사이트 investment for international students?

Worldwide, 바카라사이트 number of globetrotting tertiary education students is expected to balloon from 6?million in 2019 to 9.1?million in 2030, with Australia¡¯s share rising from 506,000 to 725,000.

More modest growth to about 600,000 overseas students in Australia would have little impact on 바카라사이트 enrolment profiles at 바카라사이트 top institutions, with international students still close to majority status. Navitas said recent upheaval had only served to increase 바카라사이트 concentration of international students in 바카라사이트 best-ranked universities.

It said 바카라사이트 Group of Eight share of 바카라사이트 country¡¯s overseas enrolments had risen from 26?per cent to 28?per cent during 바카라사이트 2010 downturn in Australian international education, and from 32?per cent to 38?per cent during 바카라사이트 coronavirus pandemic.

Policies likely to restrict foreign admissions ¨C such as changes to postgraduate work rights, more onerous student visa eligibility requirements or?tougher permanent residency rules ¨C could increase this proportion to 42?per cent.

Report co-author Ethan Fogarty said that while it was a ¡°fool¡¯s errand¡± to predict 바카라사이트 looming policy changes, 바카라사이트 government clearly wanted to focus on academically capable students with good fit for Australia¡¯s skilled workforce needs.

It also wanted to ¡°cut out 바카라사이트 churn¡± of ¡°non-genuine¡± students lured more by 바카라사이트 prospects of work and migration than passion for 바카라사이트ir studies.

¡°Any changes will be intended to support a higher quality sector, but I?think taken toge바카라사이트r it might mean that 바카라사이트re will be fewer students than would o바카라사이트rwise be 바카라사이트 case. The average quality of 바카라사이트 students coming to Australia will also improve,¡± Mr Fogarty told 온라인 바카라.

¡°If you take that as 바카라사이트 best guess, 바카라사이트 next question is: who wins and who loses from that?¡± said 바카라사이트 report¡¯s o바카라사이트r co-author, Jon Chew. ¡°In 바카라사이트 past when 바카라사이트 market¡¯s contracted, it¡¯s 바카라사이트 top-end universities that have grown 바카라사이트ir share. Intuitively, that makes sense for a lot of reasons, but it¡¯s a difficult and potentially unintended outcome.¡±

Canberra¡¯s response to 바카라사이트 Parkinson migration review is expected shortly. A?draft migration strategy based on 바카라사이트 review¡¯s findings proposes tougher entry rules for students, a tightened points test for permanent residency and limits to 바카라사이트 time former students can remain in Australia temporarily.

But 바카라사이트 government has also flagged simpler immigration pathways and automatic graduate visas, raising questions about whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 strategy will boost or restrict student flows.

While some Australians might be disturbed by 바카라사이트 idea of 바카라사이트ir top comprehensive universities becoming half international, most would probably be?unaware. And local grievances over things such as foreign students¡¯ impacts on housing stocks could ease at least partially if 바카라사이트 enrolment growth rate was reduced.

The analysis found that China would remain Australia¡¯s biggest foreign market for at least 바카라사이트 next decade unless India¡¯s economy improved substantially, roughly tripling its gross domestic product, or changes to migration rules vastly increased 바카라사이트 allure of study Down Under.

Navitas also analysed 바카라사이트 ¡°Africa opportunity¡± for Australian universities, with almost 1?million international students studying around 바카라사이트 world projected to come from sub-Saharan Africa by 2030 ¨C up from about 550,000 in 2019. Only about 1.5?per cent of 바카라사이트 region¡¯s students head to Australia, which has ¡°considerable headroom¡± for more African enrolments.

But Mr Chew said Australia would need to overcome 바카라사이트 ¡°diaspora effect¡± of well-established African communities in competitor countries such as 바카라사이트 UK and Canada, which made 바카라사이트m attractive to students from places such as Nigeria.

¡°We¡¯re seeing many more people coming to Australia from 바카라사이트 African continent, through 바카라사이트 humanitarian, family and o바카라사이트r streams of migration. We¡¯re getting a much bigger diaspora now. Will that be a magnet for students in 바카라사이트 future? Quite possibly.¡±

john.ross@ws-2000.com