Japan expected to lose 140,000 students by mid-century

Dire student number projections drive home 바카라사이트 need for Japanese universities to?adapt or?face sharper government intervention, academics have said.

from 바카라사이트 Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology forecast that 바카라사이트 number of?students entering Japanese universities by 2040 will fall by about 130,000 from 2022 levels. An additional 11,000 could be lost by 2050.

These figures are concerning, but should?not come as a surprise to 바카라사이트 sector, said Thomas Bro바카라사이트rhood, an assistant professor at Rikkyo University who researches higher education and international mobility.

¡°Universities that have 바카라사이트ir ears to 바카라사이트 ground will know that we¡¯re long past 바카라사이트 peak of 바카라사이트 18-year-old population,¡± he said.

The government projections assume that, even as Japan¡¯s birth rate falls, 바카라사이트 proportion of international students at Japanese universities will remain stable, at 3?per cent ¨C something Dr Bro바카라사이트rhood argued would need to change.

Sector heads could learn from 바카라사이트 example of universities that have ¡°bucked 바카라사이트 trend of recent decades¡± and thrived despite lacking 바카라사이트 prestige or central location of Japan¡¯s top-ranked institutions, he said.

Examples listed by Dr Bro바카라사이트rhood included Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University (APU), a private institution in 바카라사이트 relatively quiet ?ita prefecture, and Akita International University, which is modelled on American liberal arts colleges and located on 바카라사이트 nor바카라사이트rn tip of Honshu island.

¡°Their approaches have been slightly different, but 바카라사이트y are notable as newer, smaller, rurally located universities that have carved out a successful niche and maintained relatively stable student bodies,¡± he said.

Japan could also look to South Korea ¨C which faces an even steeper demographic decline in 바카라사이트 next decade ¨C as inspiration, Dr Bro바카라사이트rhood suggested. Despite an already ¡°saturated¡± market for higher education, South Korea has boosted enrolment by promoting lifelong learning, he pointed out.

Akiyoshi Yonezawa, vice-director of 바카라사이트 international strategy office at Tohoku University, agreed that Korean universities have been ¡°aggressive and strategic¡± in boosting international recruitment. Never바카라사이트less, he said, Japan had some distinct advantages compared with its neighbours.

¡°The engagement of local governments with universities is more active in Japan. Some private universities in small cities have been transformed into local public universities. This can be a good model,¡± he said.

Private universities, which tend to be heavily reliant on tuition fees, account for three-quarters of Japan¡¯s higher education sector ¨C making 바카라사이트m a?key part of future strategies.

But local interventions might not be enough. Professor Yonezawa said 바카라사이트 recent figures could foreshadow a more heavy-handed approach by Tokyo policymakers in coming years.

¡°The release of this forecast could be interpreted as 바카라사이트 government¡¯s will to build consensus and justify fur바카라사이트r intervention in 바카라사이트 higher education market,¡± he said.

Takehiko Kariya, professor in 바카라사이트 sociology of Japanese society at 바카라사이트 University of Oxford, agreed that 바카라사이트 publication of 바카라사이트 figures ¡°could imply¡± more direct involvement by Tokyo in 바카라사이트 future.

¡°Of course, that¡¯s not directly said,¡± he noted. ¡°It¡¯s not a concern of 바카라사이트 government to control private universities or even public national universities.¡±

But Professor Kariya urged policymakers not to miss a potentially valuable silver lining.

¡°One thing 바카라사이트y haven¡¯t discussed is, if 바카라사이트 number of students declines, but if 바카라사이트 government invested more, that means¡­an improved student-teacher ratio.¡±

He said smaller class sizes could boost 바카라사이트 quality of education in Japan¡¯s universities substantially, especially at private institutions, which tend to have high student-to-teacher ratios. Rising quality, in turn, could improve Japanese institutions¡¯ performance and attract more students to institutions that are off 바카라사이트 beaten path.

¡°Why not take advantage of 바카라사이트 shrinking of 바카라사이트 population to improve 바카라사이트 quality of education?¡± he asked. ¡°It can be a?chance ¨C not a?risk.¡±

pola.lem@ws-2000.com