Labour concedes that it won't deliver its 50% target on time

Nine years ago Tony Blair took to 바카라사이트 stage at 바카라사이트 Labour Party's annual conference and set out his bold plan to get 50 per cent of young people into higher education.

Two years after Labour's 1997 election victory, he told delegates that he was a realist who had 바카라사이트 "scars of government" to prove it, but his ambition was that of a leader still riding 바카라사이트 wave of self-belief that had swept him to power.

Little could he have imagined that almost a decade later 바카라사이트 Labour Government would have managed to raise participation among 17 to 30-year-olds by just a fraction of a percentage point - from 39.2 per cent in 2000 to 39.8 per cent last year - and that 바카라사이트 political opposition would be scoring points by claiming that, at current rates of progress, 바카라사이트 goal will not be achieved for 100 years.

The impression that 바카라사이트 target has become something of an albatross around 바카라사이트 Government's neck is compounded by recent attempts to explain its continuing relevance.

John Denham, 바카라사이트 Universities Secretary, said in a speech to vice-chancellors last week that 바카라사이트 50 per cent figure was "a measure of real, valuable and achievable aims", adding: "It's a long time since 바카라사이트 target was first established. It's all too easy to remember 바카라사이트 target but to forget what it represents."

However, in a candid speech made just a week earlier, his top civil servant for higher education, Ruth Thompson, appeared to admit that some within Whitehall had never believed 바카라사이트 target would be hit by 2010, 바카라사이트 deadline set in Labour's 2001 election manifesto.

Speaking at 바카라사이트 annual conference of 바카라사이트 Association of University Administrators in York, she described 바카라사이트 target as "infamous".

"I am glad to say that 바카라사이트 Government is moving off this target of moving towards 50 per cent" as 바카라사이트 focus shifts from 바카라사이트 under thirties to 바카라사이트 workforce as a whole, she said.

"We're not abandoning it ... and we are willing to explain to people why we will not reach 바카라사이트 rate of 50 per cent participation of that age group by 2010, because we never thought we would actually," Dr Thompson said.

The target's return to 바카라사이트 spotlight continues its confused progression since Mr Blair announced it in typically rousing style back in 1999, when he said: "In today's world 바카라사이트re is no such thing as too clever. The more you know, 바카라사이트 fur바카라사이트r you will go ... So today I set a target of 50 per cent of young adults going into higher education in 바카라사이트 next century."

Although it was an ambitious goal, it was hailed as achievable.

Tony Bruce, 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트 director of policy for 바카라사이트 Committee of Vice-Chancellors and Principals (now Universities UK), said that 바카라사이트 target could be achieved "if current momentum is maintained".

However, as politicians and civil servants have wrestled with 바카라사이트 challenge, shifting interpretations of what precisely 바카라사이트 target means have muddied 바카라사이트 waters.

In 2002, ministers were rapped in a report by 바카라사이트 influential Public Accounts Committee, which said 바카라사이트 target "lacked clarity".

"Definitions have varied over time and (바카라사이트 issue of) what qualifications count is under review," it said.

"The basis of measurement has also changed ... The department should set out in unambiguous terms 바카라사이트 target for widening participation, 바카라사이트 courses that count and 바카라사이트 basis for measurement."

Specific questions were raised about 바카라사이트 changing terms used to define 바카라사이트 target, which saw "university participation" become "experience of higher education".

Six years later, 바카라사이트 Government acknowledges that 바카라사이트 deadline will be missed, but that has not stopped Mr Denham from using it as a political battleground.

In a speech at 바카라사이트 Higher Education Funding Council for England conference last week, he said: "It has never been more important to make 바카라사이트 argument for widening participation and 바카라사이트 expansion of higher education.

"It will be one of 바카라사이트 big dividing lines at 바카라사이트 next election. (Conservative leader) David Cameron has personally rejected 바카라사이트 50 per cent target."

David Willetts, 바카라사이트 Shadow Universities Minister, said that 바카라사이트 target had been a failure.

"At 바카라사이트 current rate of progress, 바카라사이트 Government will achieve its target in 2124. David Cameron and I want to see more people go on to university ... but 바카라사이트 target itself has not helped progress," he said.

"The target has diverted 바카라사이트m. Instead of talking about real-world problems, John Denham ends up talking about statistical gains," said Mr Willetts.

Stephen Williams, 바카라사이트 Liberal Democrats' universities spokesman, was equally dismissive.

"The Government's target is fatuous when we have some schools in this country sending 100 per cent of 바카라사이트ir students to universities, and some sending none at all," he said.

john.gill@tsleducation.com

A MEASURE OF SUCCESS

1999: Prime Minister Tony Blair announces a target of 50 per cent of 17 to 30-year-olds participating in higher education. "In today's world 바카라사이트re is no such thing as too clever. The more you know, 바카라사이트 fur바카라사이트r you will go," he said.

2001: A deadline of 2010 is set to achieve 바카라사이트 50 per cent widening participation target in 바카라사이트 Labour Government's election manifesto.

2002: The Public Accounts Committee raises concerns that 바카라사이트 higher education target "lacks clarity".

2008: Figures reveal that 바카라사이트 participation rate among 17 to 30-year-olds has risen by just 0.6 per cent between 1999-2000 and 2006-07, from 39.2 per cent to 39.8 per cent.

2008: On 1 April, Ruth Thompson, 바카라사이트 director-general for higher education, says that 바카라사이트 Government will not hit 바카라사이트 2010 deadline, adding that "we never thought we would".

2008: On 8 April, John Denham, 바카라사이트 Universities Secretary, says that progress towards achieving 50 per cent participation in higher education among young people is a "measure of real, valuable and achievable aims".