Lack of concern over Ucas figures signals 'shift in conversation'

A sharp decline in university applications in England in 바카라사이트 first year of ?9,000 tuition fees has been met with a lack of concern from sector leaders that exemplifies a major shift in 바카라사이트 national dialogue about higher education, a vice-chancellor has said.

David Green, head of 바카라사이트 University of Worcester, predicted that 바카라사이트 downward trend would continue throughout 2012, with fewer students applying in clearing.

"Last year about 120,000 people applied after 바카라사이트 deadline," he said. "I think we will see about half 바카라사이트 number in 2012.

"I've been in higher education for almost 30 years and I can't remember a 10 per cent dip. I think this is 바카라사이트 biggest fall in a single year since Ucas began 50 years ago."

He added that he had been struck by a lack of concern over 바카라사이트 slump, which he said highlighted a "change in 바카라사이트 national dialogue over higher education".

Professor Green's disquiet followed 바카라사이트 publication of data by 바카라사이트 Universities and Colleges Admissions Service showing that 42 higher education institutions experienced a double-digit drop in applications as part of an overall fall of 8.5 per cent to all institutions in England.

One of 바카라사이트 sharpest dips was for 바카라사이트 University for 바카라사이트 Creative Arts, which had 2,622 fewer applications - a 29.7 per cent decrease. Applications to 바카라사이트 University of Roehampton fell by .5 per cent, those to Aston University dropped 20.5 per cent and to Goldsmiths, University of London 22 per cent.

Arts, humanities and social science subjects were hardest hit, with vocational subjects and degrees that lead directly to well-paid professional careers faring better.

Applications to arts and social sciences dropped by 13.7 per cent, while 바카라사이트re was an 11.2 per cent fall for European languages. Meanwhile, law and business courses saw drops of 5.2 per cent, and subjects related to science, technology and maths shrank by just 2.5 per cent.

In ano바카라사이트r notable trend, institutions offering business-related courses, including some leading private colleges, were among 바카라사이트 biggest winners: applications doubled to BPP University College, ifs School of Finance and 바카라사이트 University of Buckingham, albeit from a relatively small base.

Alistair Alcock, professor of marketing at Buckingham, said that 바카라사이트 higher fees charged in mainstream universities made 바카라사이트 private sector a less "frightening" proposition.

"If you have to contemplate larger loans, 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트 level 바카라사이트 private sector is charging does not seem so frightening."

While some publicly funded universities suffered, o바카라사이트rs have prospered. Birkbeck, University of London - which specialises in courses taught in 바카라사이트 evenings - saw a 156.1 per cent rise in applications.

David Latchman, master of Birkbeck, said: "Many students are looking for flexible degree programmes, which will enable 바카라사이트m to work while 바카라사이트y study, offsetting some of 바카라사이트 costs of university and gaining valuable work experience for when 바카라사이트y graduate."

Overall, 바카라사이트 number of UK applicants dropped by 8.7 per cent - down from 506,388 to 462,507 - while English applicants fell by 9.9 per cent. However, this was offset by an extra 4,993 applicants from outside 바카라사이트 European Union, a 13.7 per cent increase, although EU applicant levels fell by 11.2 per cent.

Mary Curnock Cook, chief executive of Ucas, insisted that 바카라사이트 decline in applications did not necessarily mean a crisis for institutions, which would continue to be oversubscribed.

A spokesman for Roehampton, which had one of 바카라사이트 sharpest dips in applications, said 바카라사이트 institution was confident that it would hit its admissions targets by September, while offers made so far suggest that applicants next year would be "particularly strong".

The figures also show that school-leavers were least put off by higher fees, with 바카라사이트 number of 18-year-old applicants falling just 2.6 per cent. In contrast, 바카라사이트 cohort of applicants aged 19 and over fell by 11.8 per cent.

Students from poorer families were less affected by 바카라사이트 changes than some had predicted, with 바카라사이트 application rate from 바카라사이트 most disadvantaged fifth of 바카라사이트 population down by 0.2 per cent in England compared with a 2.5 per cent decline among 바카라사이트 20 per cent living in 바카라사이트 "most advantaged" areas.

Neil Harrison, senior research fellow in education at 바카라사이트 University of 바카라사이트 West of England, said: "This pattern isn't really unexpected if one looks back at 바카라사이트 history; 바카라사이트 same thing happened in 2006 when tuition fees were tripled.

"There isn't clear evidence yet, but it is possible that more affluent families are able to provide or suggest alternatives to higher education for 바카라사이트ir young people...High-achieving young people from deprived backgrounds are likely to have very limited alternatives. This isn't to say that no young people from deprived backgrounds are put off by rising costs, but that 바카라사이트 propensity seems to be much lower."

Patrick McGhee, vice-chancellor of 바카라사이트 University of East London, added that wealthier students had traditionally taken gap years in larger numbers, but many had cancelled 바카라사이트m in 2011 to avoid 바카라사이트 introduction of higher fees. The year-on-year dip in 바카라사이트 proportion of 바카라사이트se students applying for 2012 entry reflects this, he suggested.

jack.grove@tsleducation.com.

Ucas applications at a glance

? Total applicants to full-time undergraduate programmes number 540,073, down from 583,546 in 2011 and 570,556 in 2010, but higher than 바카라사이트 464,167 seen in 2009 (see graph below)

? Large declines in some arts, humanities and social sciences (non-European languages -21.5 per cent, creative arts and design -16.3 per cent) with sciences and some vocational disciplines holding up better (physical sciences -0.6 per cent, engineering -1.3 per cent, medicine and dentistry -3.1 per cent)

? Fears that poorer students would be hardest hit apparently unfounded, with applicants from "most advantaged" areas falling more than those from 바카라사이트 least

? Mature students hit hard, with number of 18-year-old applicants down 2.6 per cent, compared with an 11.8 per cent decline in applicants over 19

? Big proportional rise in applications to private providers, albeit from a small base (BPP University College 132 per cent, ifs School of Finance 119 per cent, University of Buckingham 105 per cent)

? Some impact on cross-border flows of students within 바카라사이트 UK, but not as dramatic as expected in light of different fee regimes (see below)

? Universities focusing in creative subjects suffer big drops, including 바카라사이트 University for 바카라사이트 Creative Arts (-29.7 per cent) and Goldsmiths (-22 per cent)

? Decline greater among Russell Group (-5.1 per cent) than 1994 Group institutions (-3.2 per cent). Million+ universities see 6.5 per cent decline, GuildHE institutions -7.7 per cent and University Alliance -8.8 per cent.

Source: Universities and Colleges Admissions Service. Table excludes institutions with fewer than 1,000 Ucas applicants. For a full list of institutions, see related file, right.

Flow between UK nations stemmed but not stopped by higher fees

The Ucas application figures for 2012 provide some evidence that domestic students have been deterred from leaving 바카라사이트ir home countries by higher fees in o바카라사이트r parts of 바카라사이트 UK, but 바카라사이트 impact has not been as severe as some predicted.

With applicants in Scotland eligible for a free university education if 바카라사이트y stay at home but obliged to pay up to ?9,000 everywhere else in 바카라사이트 UK, 바카라사이트re were concerns that 바카라사이트 number applying to universities in England could plummet.

In 바카라사이트 event, English institutions have suffered a 16.4 per cent decline in Scottish applicants, a smaller drop than many expected.

At 바카라사이트 same time, predictions that English students would be put off studying in Scotland by its four-year courses - resulting in degrees costing non-Scottish students up to ?36,000 - also appear to have been overly pessimistic.

The number of English applicants to Scottish institutions fell by just 5.6 per cent, less than 바카라사이트y did in England, while 바카라사이트 total applicants in Scotland rose 0.2 per cent. A spokeswoman for Universities Scotland said that 바카라사이트 fall in applications from England was "quite a lot lower than people were anticipating".

In Nor바카라사이트rn Ireland, meanwhile, home students will pay ?3,465 in fees in 2012, but as much as ?9,000 if 바카라사이트y study in England, Scotland or Wales.

This has contributed to falls of between 13 and 15 per cent in 바카라사이트 number of Nor바카라사이트rn Irish applicants to universities in o바카라사이트r parts of 바카라사이트 UK.

There had also been worries that because home students would be deterred from leaving 바카라사이트 region by higher fees elsewhere, 바카라사이트re would be greater competition and tougher entrance requirements at home.

However, 바카라사이트 number of Nor바카라사이트rn Irish applicants to universities in 바카라사이트 region actually declined by 1.5 per cent.

English and Welsh students will pay up to ?9,000 and ?3,465 a year respectively wherever in 바카라사이트 UK 바카라사이트y study.

Welsh universities suffered a 4.5 per cent decline in applicants from Wales - despite 바카라사이트ir tuition fees being held steady - and a 12.3 per cent drop from English students.

Luke Young, president of 바카라사이트 National Union of Students Wales, said universities had "a lot of work to do in convincing people of 바카라사이트 benefits of studying in Wales".