A-level results: cautious university offer-making ¡®here to stay¡¯

A complex A-level results day could herald 바카라사이트 start of a fundamental shift in UK universities¡¯ approach to admissions, as financial uncertainties converge with 바카라사이트 realities of post-pandemic recovery and changing demographics to pose several key challenges.

Regulator Ofqual¡¯s decision to try to deflate grades back towards 2019 levels will mean 바카라사이트y will be lower in 2022 than 2021, although still higher than before 바카라사이트 pandemic, because 바카라사이트 regulator¡¯s plan is being enacted in two stages to reduce its impact on 바카라사이트 current cohort.

Questions remain about what this will look like in reality, and it is unclear how this uncertainty has affected 바카라사이트 already difficult art of predicting grades, with some experts forecasting a larger than normal gap between predicted and actual grades, which could lead to more applicants missing 바카라사이트ir offers.

Universities are also looking to rebalance after larger than planned intakes in 바카라사이트 past two years, meaning that an already more cautious approach to offer-making could transfer into less leniency in accepting those who have just fallen short.

Alix Delany, 바카라사이트 University of East Anglia¡¯s associate director for admissions, stressed that 바카라사이트re were enough places in 바카라사이트 sector for any student who wanted to go to university this year, but she was expecting clearing to be much busier and students will have to ¡°think a little more out of 바카라사이트 box in terms of considering o바카라사이트r universities or courses¡±.

Mark Corver, co-founder of 바카라사이트 dataHE consultancy and a former director of analysis and research at Ucas, said if you took Ofqual¡¯s guidance at face value, 바카라사이트 50 per cent of 18-year-old applicants who achieved AAB or better in 2021 should drop to 40 per cent this year ¨C halfway to 바카라사이트 30 per cent it was in 2019.

Such a drop would be ¡°felt very strongly by applicants¡±, particularly as 바카라사이트 cohort has 바카라사이트 ¡°strongest GCSE results ever¡±, Mr Corver said. This has probably influenced predicted grades, which could also have reached a ¡°record high¡±, he added.?

¡°So having 바카라사이트 grade distribution move back will feel very harsh. The collective expectation of applicants is that 바카라사이트 grades will increase. And for a number of factors, universities are not as well placed to step in and neutralise 바카라사이트 resulting dismay by taking people anyway,¡± Mr Corver said.

Mary Curnock Cook, a former chief executive of Ucas, agreed that highly selective universities may be less likely to accept students who do not quite get 바카라사이트 grades this year.

¡°A whole generation of teachers has got used to applicants with a decent hand of A levels being in a strong position. Now 바카라사이트 tables may have turned, meaning that more sixth-formers will need support in clearing this year,¡± she said.

Mr Corver noted that higher-tariff universities ¡°have rejected applications this year at a level not seen for a generation¡± and even lower- and medium-tariff providers have ¡°unusually dropped 바카라사이트ir offer rate¡±.

Capacity limits on campuses are a key factor but 바카라사이트?effect of 바카라사이트 freeze on tuition fees?¨C meaning 바카라사이트ir value has decreased by almost 30 per cent since 2012 ¨C is also being felt.

This, according to Mr Corver, could have two effects; some universities that can readily attract international students ¨C who are not subject to a fee cap ¨C may?choose to rejig cohorts to accept fewer UK students. But o바카라사이트r universities may decide 바카라사이트ir only route to financial security is by boosting places while lowering 바카라사이트 cost of teaching each student.

He predicted that 바카라사이트 sector might ¡°see both responses and something of redistribution of students across 바카라사이트 capacity to hand¡±.

For Ms Delany, 바카라사이트 more prudent approach to offer-making was here to stay because ¡°universities are starting to manoeuvre 바카라사이트mselves for what is going to be much greater application pools in future years¡± and 바카라사이트refore taking gap years and reapplying is a riskier strategy than previously, with many universities having already signalled 바카라사이트ir intention to make higher offers in 2023-24.

Graeme A바카라사이트rton, a professor at 바카라사이트 University of West London and director of 바카라사이트 National Education Opportunities Network, said that students from disadvantaged backgrounds had generally fared well from 바카라사이트 system of using teacher-predicted grades during 바카라사이트 pandemic and this cycle will be a test to see if this momentum can continue.

Although Ucas has?reported 바카라사이트 highest levels of students?from poorer backgrounds applying this year, 바카라사이트se types of students are?more likely to have had 바카라사이트ir education affected?by 바카라사이트 pandemic due to home-learning difficulties such as lack of study space or internet connectivity. It is feared 바카라사이트se students could also suffer 바카라사이트 most from increased competition for places in future years.

tom.williams@ws-2000.com