Most A-level grade predictions ¡®inaccurate¡¯

Only 42 per cent of grades predicted by teachers in 2010 were correct when 바카라사이트 final results were published, according to a Department for Business, Innovation and Skills research paper published on 5 November.

That compares with a 48 per cent accuracy rate reported in a study released last month, which tracked 바카라사이트 results of students taking 바카라사이트 OCR exam board¡¯s A levels in summer 2012.

The BIS study, titled Investigating 바카라사이트 accuracy of predicted A level grades as part of 바카라사이트 2010 UCAS admission process, is likely to re-ignite questions over 바카라사이트 fairness of 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s university applications process, where offers are often based on predicted grades.

Plans for post-qualification applications (PQA) were ditched by Ucas in March 2012 after 바카라사이트y received a hostile reception from universities.

It may also raise questions about plans to downgrade AS levels to optional exams from 2015 because many admissions tutors claim 바카라사이트y are a more reliable guide to achievement than predicted grades made by teachers.

The report reviews about 177,000 predicted A-level grades in 바카라사이트 2010 admissions cycle ¨C about a third of A-levels taken by those applying to higher education.

It found teachers were more likely to over-predict student grades, with 48 per cent of predicted grades ending up higher than 바카라사이트 achieved result.

Only 11 per cent of predicted grades were under-predicted, with students exceeding teacher expectations.

That trend was particularly stark when it came to 바카라사이트 new A* grade, which was introduced in 2010 and is used by some highly-selective universities, including Oxbridge.

About half of those predicted an A* only achieved an A, while 12 per cent predicted an A received 바카라사이트 higher grade, 바카라사이트 report says.

The introduction of 바카라사이트 A* also worsened 바카라사이트 accuracy of teachers¡¯ predicted grades compared with previous years because an A was once 바카라사이트 most easy grade to predict correctly.

Accuracy rates for predicting an A fell from 64 per cent in 2009 to 43 per cent in 2010, 바카라사이트 report says. For all grades in 2009, 바카라사이트 accuracy rate was 52 per cent, which fell to 42 per cent in 2010.

jack.grove@tsleducation.com