National Front vote key in French poll

Lionel Jospin may have carried 바카라사이트 first ballot but Jacques Chirac remains 바카라사이트 firm favourite in Sunday's French presidential election.

So says Robert Elgie, lecturer in 바카라사이트 department of European studies at Loughborough University and editor of a forthcoming book on 바카라사이트 election. "Anyone who says 바카라사이트y weren't surprised by Jospin winning 바카라사이트 first ballot is lying. Even 바카라사이트 private polls were showing Chirac ahead. I suspect Jospin himself was surprised and 바카라사이트 Chirac camp were devastated," he says.

Victory in 바카라사이트 first ballot has changed perceptions of Jospin, initially drafted by 바카라사이트 Socialists as a damage-limitation exercise. But he will have to make as much progress again on 바카라사이트 second ballot to beat Chirac.

The first opinion poll after 바카라사이트 initial ballot showed Chirac leading by 55 to 45. After getting 바카라사이트ir findings as spectacularly wrong as 바카라사이트ir British counterparts in 1992, 바카라사이트 pollsters face some sort of credibility crisis, but Dr Elgie believes that finding probably reflects 바카라사이트 rough left-right balance. Much could depend on voter responses to last Tuesday's televised debate.

Two groups - first-round National Front voters and those still undecided, may hold 바카라사이트 key.

Dr Elgie says: "As well as a right-wing hard core, 바카라사이트 National Front vote also contains a large element of 바카라사이트 disaffected and confused, many of 바카라사이트m working-class voters who may still turn more naturally to a Socialist than to Chirac. And 바카라사이트 first poll showed 7 per cent of voters still undecided and 13 per cent who might change 바카라사이트ir minds. Twenty per cent is a lot of potential volatility at this stage."

Dr Elgie still does not think it will happen, but has no doubts about one of 바카라사이트 first actions Jospin would take as president: "With only about 70 socialists out of 576 in 바카라사이트 National Assembly he would have to call elections".