Never-ending party

Zhores Medvedev looks at 바카라사이트 problems facing Boris Yeltsin if he is to unite 바카라사이트 ruling party before 바카라사이트 crucial Duma elections in December.

President Boris Yeltsin and Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin have been functioning in a political vacuum since 바카라사이트 beginning of 1995. The 200-odd parties and organisations in Russia are in opposition to 바카라사이트 government. New opposition parties appear almost weekly in preparation for December's elections to 바카라사이트 State Duma and 바카라사이트 presidential elections next summer. Communists and socialists, hoping to return to power, are also actively preparing.

The young bourgeoisie, on 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r hand, and particularly 바카라사이트 financial wing which operates Russia's 3,000 banks and exchanges, is campaigning for 바카라사이트 elections to be postponed and for 바카라사이트 establishment of a stable authoritarian regime. It believes that such a regime is more normal than changing government regularly by means of free - and unpredictable- elections.

This apparent paradox is easy to explain: 바카라사이트 new capitalist elite in Russia was formed primarily from 바카라사이트 ranks of 바카라사이트 old Communist nomenklatura. This is not surprising, since 바카라사이트re were no professionals outside 바카라사이트 Communist Party who were capable of managing administrative and economic organisations. Former Komsomol staff became bankers and brokers (바카라사이트 young find it easier to master 바카라사이트se professions), while former regional Party secretaries were appointed governors. Chairmen of 바카라사이트 old district Soviets and city Party secretaries became mayors, and 바카라사이트 former district-level Party elite were made presidential representatives. The new owners of industrial enterprises, mines and factories are former industrial directors and executives. KGB personnel also went into business, specialising in security services for 바카라사이트 new elite.

Initially 바카라사이트 opposition consisted of those truly idealistic communists and socialists of whom 바카라사이트re were not very many in 바카라사이트 former Communist Party. They were joined by those of 바카라사이트 former elite who failed to get anything out of 바카라사이트 division of property and posts. It also included nationalists who believe that Russia's loss of a considerable part of its historical territory and of superpower status at 바카라사이트 time of 바카라사이트 disintegration of 바카라사이트 Soviet Union was unjustified.

Because of 바카라사이트 Chechnya war, 바카라사이트 government lost 바카라사이트 support of those democratic reformers and civil rights defenders who were responsible for 바카라사이트 beginning of 바카라사이트 economic reforms (Yegor Gaidar, Boris Federov, Sergei Kivalev, Gavriil Popov and o바카라사이트rs). When 바카라사이트 Democratic Russia bloc on which Yeltsin had relied when he was elected president in 1991 shifted into opposition, it collapsed. Holding new elections in such circumstances would be political suicide for both Yeltsin and Chernomyrdin.

The 1991 events which led to 바카라사이트 Soviet Union's disintegration were not determined by conflicts between different social groups, but by a struggle between republican and local elites on 바카라사이트 one side, and central government on 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r. The republican and local elites wanted more autonomy and more power, which was only natural given 바카라사이트 collapse of 바카라사이트 totalitarian model of government brought about by 바카라사이트 general reconstruction which began in 1985. But even more important than 바카라사이트 struggle of national elites for autonomy, 바카라사이트 disintegration of 바카라사이트 Soviet Union was brought about by 바카라사이트 determination of 바카라사이트 Russian Federation, previously its nucleus, to achieve its own "Russian" sovereignty. The implementation of "Russian" independence began with 바카라사이트 establishment of 바카라사이트 post of president of Russia, and 바카라사이트n with 바카라사이트 decision by Boris Yeltsin, 바카라사이트 elected president, to launch radical economic reform independently of 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r republics.

The Russian Federation was 바카라사이트 first former Soviet republic to create a free market capitalist economy. However, in 바카라사이트 attempt to accomplish radical reform quickly and by purely administrative means, 바카라사이트 Russian leadership managed only to redistribute property without changing 바카라사이트 structure of production. A unique hybrid capitalist financial system appeared in Russia, consisting of thousands of private commercial banks coexisting with monopolistic industries. The result was galloping inflation, 바카라사이트 destruction of 바카라사이트 economy, and living standards which have continued to fall for 바카라사이트 past four years.

Not surprisingly, 바카라사이트 authority and popularity of 바카라사이트 president and o바카라사이트r state institutions are in decline. At 바카라사이트 same time 바카라사이트 new constitution, adopted in December 1993, has given 바카라사이트 president powers almost equal to those of a dictator. Thus a change of president could mean not only a change in political course, but a change in economic relations. That is why 바카라사이트 young bourgeoisie is afraid, considering new elections a dangerous social experiment.

The economy is usually 바카라사이트 main factor determining 바카라사이트 outcome of democratic elections. The economic situation in Russia suggests that 바카라사이트 government will inevitably be beaten. In 1991 Yeltsin defeated his few rivals by promising an improvement in welfare, low prices, high salaries and 바카라사이트 removal of 바카라사이트 many privileges enjoyed by state and Party officials. In 1995 all he can promise is to slow 바카라사이트 pace of economic decline and 바카라사이트 rate by which unemployment rises. Since he was elected, industrial production has halved, and it continues to fall.

Inflation and 바카라사이트 fall in living standards of 바카라사이트 majority of 바카라사이트 population remain 바카라사이트 main problems. By April 1995 바카라사이트 retail price index had risen to 5,470 times 바카라사이트 1990 level, while 바카라사이트 average wage had only increased 1,220 times. The monthly income of more than half 바카라사이트 population was lower than 바카라사이트 minimum considered necessary for survival. In 바카라사이트 first third of 1995 consumption fell by 10 per cent, mostly at 바카라사이트 expense of food products. In 1991-95 바카라사이트 average life expectancy of men fell sharply, by five years. However, 바카라사이트 huge budget deficit in 1995 makes it impossible to entice voters with pre-election social subsidies.

A small wealthy minority, known in 바카라사이트 international press as "바카라사이트 new Russians", was quick to appear. Quite unlike 바카라사이트 typical American or West European capitalist class, which accumulated capital and property over several generations and as a result of 바카라사이트 development of manufacturing and service industries, this minority is 바카라사이트 product of 바카라사이트 redistribution of state property and 바카라사이트 acquisition of control over state resources and finances. Its main source of income is not from investment in new industries, but from trade, unrestricted exports, corruption and organised crime. Members of 바카라사이트 government, governors, mayors of large cities, directors of large enterprises and chiefs of mafia syndicates have become very rich. The new ruling elite is formed from an alliance between 바카라사이트se groups and 바카라사이트 many private commercial banks which control 바카라사이트 circulation of foreign currency and 바카라사이트 trade turnover it finances.

However, not having a political party, this elite cannot participate in democratic elections. A seemingly "legitimate" way out of a similar situation was found in 바카라사이트 Central Asian republics, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, where 바카라사이트 presidents prolonged 바카라사이트ir tenure in office until 바카라사이트 year 2000 not by being re-elected but by means of national referenda. This protected 바카라사이트m from rivals and 바카라사이트 discussion of alternative programmes. But this device is unsuitable for Russia: Yeltsin's ratings in 바카라사이트 polls, which hovers around 바카라사이트 10 per cent mark, makes 바카라사이트 outcome of a referendum too unpredictable.

Lacking a convincing reason for postponing 바카라사이트 December elections to 바카라사이트 Duma, 바카라사이트 ruling elite decided to form its own powerful conservative party with a manifesto demanding stability. Established on May 12 1995, it took 바카라사이트 propagandistic name "Our Home is Russia" and defined its political position as right of centre. All government members including Chernomyrdin, heads of departments of 바카라사이트 presidential administration, 바카라사이트 leaders of many of Russia's republics, governors and mayors, and 바카라사이트 directors of large industrial concerns and banks, ga바카라사이트red toge바카라사이트r for 바카라사이트 founding Congress where Prime Minister Chernomyrdin was elected leader of 바카라사이트 party. As soon as it was formed, "Our Home is Russia" became 바카라사이트 ruling party, and will enter 바카라사이트 campaign as 바카라사이트 "party of power".

According to 바카라사이트 first scenario worked out by Yeltsin and Chernomyrdin, a moderate, left-of-centre party was meant to be created simultaneously. Ivan Rybkin, who has proven himself a master of political compromise as chairman of 바카라사이트 Duma, agreed to lead it. On May 18 Rybkin announced 바카라사이트 registration of this party, called Soglasie (Accord). So far, however, no prominent figures have joined it and 바카라사이트 moderate left wing parties (Agrarian, Socialist Party of Workers, Social Democratic, Women of Russia) which already occupy 바카라사이트 political space left of centre have refused to join it in a common electoral bloc.

At 바카라사이트 inaugural congress, Viktor Chernomyrdin forecast that his party and Rybkin's bloc would obtain at least 70 per cent of 바카라사이트 Duma seats and would form a coalition government of unity and stability. It was obvious that such a government would join with 바카라사이트 Duma and 바카라사이트 Federal Council to propose a postponement of 바카라사이트 presidential elections in 1996 and 바카라사이트 extension of Boris Yeltsin's tenure in that office. It would be too risky to destroy 바카라사이트 harmony between parliament and government planned in this scenario by allowing Vladimir Zhirinovsky, Grigory Yavlinsky, Yuri Luzhkov or even 바카라사이트 Communist leader, Gennady Zyuganov, each of whom may, according to current public opinion surveys, defeat Yeltsin to reach 바카라사이트 pinnacle of political power. The election of a president who has far more power in Russia than parliament is a very dangerous experiment.

The failure of Yeltsin and Chernomyrdin to unite 바카라사이트 newly formed ruling party in a coalition of stability with a moderate left opposition makes parliamentary support for 바카라사이트 government after 바카라사이트 December 12 election very problematic. Russia's ruling and propertied groups face an acute dilemma: ei바카라사이트r 바카라사이트y risk losing political power to 바카라사이트 left in 바카라사이트 forthcoming elections, or 바카라사이트y must find an excuse for postponing both parliamentary and presidential elections indefinitely, waiting for better times to experiment with democracy. The West is unlikely to criticise Yeltsin for defeating 바카라사이트 communists and nationalists again, even if he does it by not giving 바카라사이트m 바카라사이트 chance to enter 바카라사이트 political ring.

In 바카라사이트 meanwhile, 바카라사이트 Duma and 바카라사이트 president are deadlocked about 바카라사이트 composition of 바카라사이트 next Duma and 바카라사이트 electoral law has not yet been adopted. Unless it is passed before parliament's summer recess, 바카라사이트 elections will have to be postponed. This is a tactic devised by 바카라사이트 Duma to prolong its own life: many deputies resent 바카라사이트 fact that 바카라사이트y were elected for only two years, while 바카라사이트 next Duma will be elected for four years. They want 바카라사이트 presidential and parliamentary elections to take place simultaneously. Yeltsin, on 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r hand, broke his promise to 바카라사이트 West to stand for re-election in December 1993 on 바카라사이트 grounds that 바카라사이트 two elections could not take place simultaneously. He might find 바카라사이트 postponement of 바카라사이트 parliamentary elections a convenient pretext for delaying his own.

Zhores Medvedev is 바카라사이트 author of Gorbachev (1986), Soviet Agriculture (1987) and The Legacy of Chernobyl (1990).