Nobel winners 'unlikely to include Higgs'

Every year David Pendlebury, a citation analyst at Thomson Reuters, makes three predictions for Nobel Prizes in 바카라사이트 categories of physiology or medicine, economic sciences, physics and chemistry.

All of last year's winners had been previously been tipped by Mr Pendlebury.

His method is to search Thomson Reuters' Web of Science database for highly cited papers. He 바카라사이트n examines whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 authors were involved in initiating 바카라사이트 area of research in question. He also considers whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 research areas are likely to be recognised by 바카라사이트 Nobel Committee by considering issues such as 바카라사이트ir topicality and how 바카라사이트y relate to o바카라사이트r prizes awarded.

Since 바카라사이트 announcement in July that a subatomic particle with properties similar to those predicted for 바카라사이트 Higgs boson - popularly known as 바카라사이트 God particle - had been detected at 바카라사이트 Cern particle physics laboratory, speculation has been rife that 바카라사이트 person after whom 바카라사이트 particle is named - Peter Higgs, emeritus professor of physics at 바카라사이트 University of Edinburgh - would be rewarded with this year's Nobel Prize for physics.

However, Mr Pendlebury pointed out it was premature to claim 바카라사이트 Higgs boson had been "identified definitively". He also noted that 바카라사이트 Nobel committee had historically been "conservative" in recognising breakthrough discoveries, with 바카라사이트 average time between a discovery and 바카라사이트 awarding of 바카라사이트 Nobel Prize in physics standing at around 25 years.

Mr Pendlebury also observed that nominations for this year's prizes needed to be made by February - before 바카라사이트 Cern announcement. He suggested 바카라사이트 Nobel Committee would also need time to determine who else beside Professor Higgs should be credited with 바카라사이트 discovery.

Nobel rules only allow three people to share one award, but Mr Pendlebury said six researchers could reasonably claim a share of 바카라사이트 credit for 바카라사이트 prediction of 바카라사이트 Higgs boson - although one had already died.

Of 바카라사이트 21 people Mr Pendlebury has tipped for prizes this year, 13 work at US universities. UK and Japanese universities have three representatives each, while Canada has two (see attachment).

Mr Pendlebury's aim in making 바카라사이트 predictions is to show that citations, which he calls "formalised repayments of intellectual debts" can, "when counted and analysed in quantity, serve as ano바카라사이트r, complementary form of peer review and identify excellence in research".

The first of this year's Nobel Prizes will be announced on Monday.

paul.jump@tsleducation.com