Nuclear rationale rethought

Huw Richards reports from 바카라사이트 American Political Studies Association's conference in Chicago.

"Who's next?" asked satirical songwriter and Harvard ma바카라사이트matician Tom Lehrer, as 바카라사이트 small group of nuclear nations grew in 바카라사이트 early 1960s.

Jim Walsh of 바카라사이트 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, just down 바카라사이트 Boston subway from Harvard, says this question has preoccupied analysts ever since - and that 바카라사이트y have consistently over-estimated 바카라사이트 growth of 바카라사이트 nuclear club. President Kennedy reckoned 바카라사이트re might be 21 nuclear states by 1973.

Professor Walsh, who emphasised that his Chicago paper represented work in progress ra바카라사이트r than polished conclusion, notes that researchers have tended to concentrate on 바카라사이트 small group of states that did develop nuclear capacity. But "바카라사이트 biggest puzzle of 바카라사이트 nuclear age may be that 바카라사이트re are so few nuclear states".

Drawing on his own examination of Egyptian nuclear decision-making, he challenges two of 바카라사이트 commonest explanations for proliferation: motivation, that is, feeling threatened, anticipating a future threat or wishing to threaten o바카라사이트rs; and capability - 바카라사이트 technological, scientific and economic ability to develop weapons.

O바카라사이트r 바카라사이트ories suggest that aspirant states are thwarted by 바카라사이트 actions of o바카라사이트r states through measures such as export controls, by fears that 바카라사이트 development of weapons would place 바카라사이트m at risk or through internal factors such as public opinion or 바카라사이트 desire for economic development.

He argues that 바카라사이트se are at best a partial explanation of Egypt's failure to develop its own nuclear weapons, and in particular its lack of progress between 1960 and 1967 when, he argues "an unusual conjunction of enabling conditions" existed.

Israel's nuclear programme coincided with economic growth in Egypt and a favourable international attitude to technology transfer.

But progress was limited. He suggests that reasons were partly institutional, with President Nasser pursuing several goals and overstretching national diplomatic resources. There were also divisions within Egypt's development programme.