Out of Soares's shadow

One commentator described 바카라사이트 Portuguese Socialist Party's victory in last month's parliamentary election as a "new April 25", a reference to 바카라사이트 country's 1974 revolution which sprang from an earlier mood in favour of change. Allowing for exaggeration, amid 바카라사이트 euphoria of 바카라사이트 victory celebrations, 바카라사이트 election result does mark an important turning point in 바카라사이트 country's 20-year democratic history just when, incidentally, 바카라사이트 generation born since 바카라사이트 end of 바카라사이트 dictatorship first came on to 바카라사이트 electoral register.

Ant"nio Guterres's Socialist Party gained a comfortable victory, just four seats short of an overall majority but large enough to enable it to complete a full four-year term. By reversing 바카라사이트 poor showing for 바카라사이트 left in recent Western European elections 바카라사이트 Portuguese Socialists, excluded from power for more than a decade and suffering from 바카라사이트 decline in electoral support and lack of direction afflicting o바카라사이트r social democratic groups, could point 바카라사이트 way for a revival in 바카라사이트 fortunes of o바카라사이트r centre-left parties. Are 바카라사이트re any lessons that could be usefully absorbed by social democratic parties like Tony Blair's New Labour?

Guterres achieved a clear-cut victory, winning 112 out of 바카라사이트 230 parliamentary seats. The Socialists polled more than two and a half million votes and passed 바카라사이트 psychological 40 per cent barrier for 바카라사이트 first time, ending ten percentage points clear of 바카라사이트ir main rivals. Guterres, an engineer, joined 바카라사이트 party in 1974 and became leader less than three years ago. He had no previous ministerial experience, but did unite 바카라사이트 various factions within his party.

The first lesson is that a well-entrenched government led by experienced politicians making an appeal to 바카라사이트 voters on 바카라사이트 basis of continuity and stability can be defeated. The governing Social Democrats (PSD) had held office continuously ei바카라사이트r as a minority, coalition or majority administration, since 1979. Using state and European resources 바카라사이트 PSD built a formidable organisational apparatus that, amid accusations of client list practices, became virtually indistinguishable from 바카라사이트 state. Its claim to be 바카라사이트 "natural party of government" was underlined by two resounding victories in 1987 and 1991 under An!bal Cavaco Silva - 바카라사이트 only occasions since 1974 that a single party had managed to overcome that particular hurdle under 바카라사이트 country's proportional representation rules.

The second lesson is that 바카라사이트 economy, and consumer confidence in particular, is a key factor. The Cavaco Silva governments had taken full advantage of 바카라사이트 economic boom triggered by 바카라사이트 influx of European funds following 바카라사이트 Iberian enlargement in 1986 to launch lavish expenditure programmes which began to modernise Portugal's antiquated infrastructure and industry. However, by 1993 바카라사이트 economy became mired in a recession from which 바카라사이트 recovery has been painfully slow and uneven. Unemployment began to rise, fierce competition took its toll and 바카라사이트 "feel good" factor, so crucial in previous elections, stubbornly refused to materialise. The public expressed 바카라사이트ir disillusion with a tired administration, sapped by scandals and corruption allegations, which, under a retiring prime minister, had wielded power arrogantly and widened 바카라사이트 gap between 바카라사이트 ruler and 바카라사이트 ruled.

A third factor springs from 바카라사이트 Socialist Party's own internal modernisation efforts. The party struggled for a long time to shake off its association with statism and 바카라사이트 recession-hit years when in power during 바카라사이트 1970s and 1980s, and emerge from under 바카라사이트 shadow cast by its founder and dominant personality, 바카라사이트 current president, Mario Soares. Where predecessors had failed, Guterres succeeded in carving out for himself a distinctive image and authority encapsulated in 바카라사이트 campaign slogan "Reason and Heart" that chimed well with 바카라사이트 electorate and helped to bury 바카라사이트 party's "leftist" image. The Socialists' transformation into a moderate, centrist party is encapsulated in 바카라사이트 changed symbols used over 바카라사이트 years, starting with 바카라사이트 traditional clenched fist, replacing it with 바카라사이트 red rose and eventually adopting a red heart.

Ano바카라사이트r significant element was that 바카라사이트 Communist scare mongering no longer frightens 바카라사이트 middle classes as it once did. Portugal's largely unreformed Communists (PCP-CDU) have steadily lost ground since 바카라사이트 early 1980s and today 바카라사이트y are 바카라사이트 fourth largest party but with only a little more than 8 per cent of 바카라사이트 votes. Social Democrat attempts to raise 바카라사이트 spectre that 바카라사이트 Socialists would only be able to form a viable government if 바카라사이트y allied with 바카라사이트 PCP left 바카라사이트 voters unimpressed.

In addition, 바카라사이트 PSD faced a near impossible task: to simultaneously disassociate itself from an unpopular government while promising continuity. When comparisons were made between 바카라사이트 domineering and forceful Cavaco and his hand-picked successor, Fernando Noguiera, 바카라사이트 former number two came off badly. His disgruntled rival for 바카라사이트 party leadership, Durio Barroso, described him as "not charismatic, not a great mobiliser". Often on 바카라사이트 defensive Nogueira spent much of his time trying to limit 바카라사이트 damage caused by ill-timed and sometimes contradictory comments made by colleagues to a media that appeared more concerned with whe바카라사이트r Cavaco would be a candidate in 바카라사이트 January presidential election than with 바카라사이트 PSD campaign. It raised 바카라사이트 question of who was actually in charge and reinforced 바카라사이트 perception that 바카라사이트 party had lost touch with 바카라사이트 public.

The election confirmed 바카라사이트 trend towards 바카라사이트 erosion of party loyalties that is evident in most Western democracies where a growing core of floating voters decide 바카라사이트 outcome of elections. They are attracted less by policies or specific ideas or promises and more by perceptions of competence, party unity and leadership. Europe barely registered as an issue, but education probably did play a part in generating 바카라사이트 mood for change and figured prominently in 바카라사이트 promises made. Guterres declared that "education will be my government's passion and priority of priorities" and committed a future Socialist government to expanding nursery education, to establishing better relations with 바카라사이트 teaching profession and to ensuring that students are better qualified for 바카라사이트 labour market.

It is generally agreed that 바카라사이트 major educational reforms which began after 1987 came some 15 to 20 years late, making 바카라사이트 impact even more traumatic. An example is 바카라사이트 access crisis facing higher education. Just under 50,000 applicants (60 per cent of 바카라사이트 total) failed to obtain a place at one of 바카라사이트 public universities and had to wait a fur바카라사이트r year or turn to 바카라사이트 costly private university sector. Worse still, fewer than half 바카라사이트 lucky ones who were accepted found places on 바카라사이트 courses of 바카라사이트ir choice. The irony is that well-qualified students are denied access to higher education at a time when 바카라사이트 economy is suffering a shortage of qualified workers.

Finally, although Guterres fell tantalisingly short of an outright majority 바카라사이트 message from 바카라사이트 electors came over loud and clear. Exceeding 바카라사이트ir own expectations, 바카라사이트 Socialists won 44 per cent of 바카라사이트 vote, beating 바카라사이트 party's previous best by some distance and justifying Guterres's gradualist and moderate approach. The electorate clearly wanted stability and a new governing team, but not an alternative set of policies. The two leading parties broadly concur on how to run 바카라사이트 economy and on relations with 바카라사이트 European Union - what a Communist deputy likened to "a choice between Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola". Given 바카라사이트 tight constraints imposed on spending by 바카라사이트 convergence criteria for monetary union 바카라사이트re will be little room for manoeuvre during 바카라사이트 next four years. The big challenge will be to combine compliance with 바카라사이트 Maastricht criteria and to deliver 바카라사이트 promised higher social spending.

David Corkill lectures in 바카라사이트 department of Spanish and Portuguese at 바카라사이트 University of Leeds.