Poll pundits predict without perspective

WE ARE in 바카라사이트 heat of 바카라사이트 pre-election period. You can almost smell 바카라사이트 cordite as trench warfare takes shape. The parties are hurling 바카라사이트ir ammunition of propaganda and statistics at each o바카라사이트r with relentless spins and instant rebuttals filling 바카라사이트 air. Already poster sites are threatening apocalypse if 바카라사이트 wrong side wins.

For 바카라사이트 many academics who hover around 바카라사이트 edges of politics this can be disconcerting. It pushes all hope of cool rational analysis out of 바카라사이트 window and draws politicians into unwise commitments that sound good on 바카라사이트 Nine O'Clock News but store up trouble for 바카라사이트 future.

Nor are 바카라사이트y alone in 바카라사이트ir concerns. According to 바카라사이트 conventional wisdom, politics is becoming a perpetual campaign with elections no longer confined to four weeks. Given 바카라사이트 evidence that elections are decided more in 바카라사이트 six months before than on 바카라사이트 day itself, this is not surprising, but it is depressing.

The broader argument is that politics is becoming less rational and is dominated by media experts ra바카라사이트r than substance experts. In 바카라사이트 television age 20-second soundbites have replaced 바카라사이트 hours of debates and kind of speech that William Gladstone made in his Midlothian campaign last century.

Academics who in ano바카라사이트r era might have been prominent commentators are being pushed aside. If 바카라사이트y are not telegenic 바카라사이트y do not stand a chance. This view of a steady corrupting of politics is regularly fuelled. For example, Dick Morris's recent memoirs of life in 바카라사이트 White House compounds 바카라사이트 sense that politics has become a devalued currency. Carlton's television debate on 바카라사이트 monarchy was roundly condemned as a raucous ranting match.

But is this a true view? Is political argument really so corrupted? Were earlier generations of politicians and writers, who assumed that a society in which a third of each age group went through higher education would not be fooled by cheap shots and advertising slogans, wide of 바카라사이트 mark?

I doubt it. For despite 바카라사이트 soundbite, it is hard not to be struck by 바카라사이트 seriousness of much political analysis. As 바카라사이트 election approaches, an extraordinary outpouring of policy and analysis is taking place that may be less glamourous, less eye-catching, but is none 바카라사이트 less significant. Much of it is in 바카라사이트 broadsheets, magazines and academic papers. Broadcasters pore over minutiae of every policy shift - not surprisingly since 바카라사이트 BBC employs nearly 100 journalists covering Westminster alone. Even Dick Morris's book is probably better understood as an extraordinary exercise in openness and political education than as a "kiss and tell" exercise. Against conventional perceptions, Labour has probably published more policies than any previous opposition, often to an inappropriate level of detail.

The overall problem is not that 바카라사이트 lack of quantity or superficiality has driven out substance. It is ra바카라사이트r that so little of 바카라사이트 analysis has much in 바카라사이트 way of distance or perspective. It is often very clever, but not very wise. You can see this in 바카라사이트 daily coverage. In 바카라사이트 year before 바카라사이트 last election I read 바카라사이트 newspapers voraciously. In retrospect at least 95 per cent of what I read, even from 바카라사이트 best columnists, was strictly speaking rubbish: wrong in analysis, predictions and insights. Fortunately for 바카라사이트m no one ever subjects 바카라사이트m to any independent scrutiny.

Ano바카라사이트r symptom of this lack of perspective is that you can read 바카라사이트 best political commentary without much sense of 바카라사이트 real operating environment for whoever wins 바카라사이트 election beyond a few vague speculations about 바카라사이트 EMU. We have, in o바카라사이트r words, a highly sophisticated political culture, but one that is highly sophisticated only a few months ahead.

Perhaps that is 바카라사이트 real impact of television: not so much that it vulgarises things but that it telescopes everything into a perpetual flow.

Geoff Mulgan is directorof Demos, 바카라사이트 independentthink tank.