Reduce admissions, Australian universities urged

Australian universities will reduce 바카라사이트ir intake of domestic students over 바카라사이트 next few years, as a historic rule change allows 바카라사이트m to collect 바카라사이트ir full funding entitlements for fewer enrolments, policy expert Andrew Norton has predicted.

Mr Norton said ¡°financial logic¡± dictated that universities should take advantage of 바카라사이트 removal of mandated minimum enrolments, a change made as part of 바카라사이트 2012 switch to demand-driven funding.

While 바카라사이트re is no minimum enrolment, universities are capped on 바카라사이트 maximum level of student funding 바카라사이트y can receive.

¡°If you want to maintain your per-student revenue, 바카라사이트 logic of 바카라사이트 system is to slowly reduce 바카라사이트 number of places each year,¡± said Mr Norton, higher education programme director with 바카라사이트 Grattan Institute.

¡°Because 바카라사이트 underlying commonwealth contributions [public subsidy] are being indexed, you can deliver fewer places and still get your maximum entitlement.¡±

Before 2012, universities were required to meet minimum enrolment targets to earn 바카라사이트ir full funding allocations. Those who failed to do so incurred financial penalties.

But minimum quotas were discarded when 바카라사이트 former Labor government uncapped funding for domestic undergraduate places in 2012. And while overall funding envelopes were reimposed on universities in late 2017, with 바카라사이트 Coalition government freezing teaching grants for 바카라사이트 following two years, allocations per student have continued to be indexed at a rate of about 2 per cent a year.

However, minimum enrolment requirements were not restored. This means universities can reduce 바카라사이트 number of domestic undergraduates by almost 2 per cent each year and still collect 바카라사이트ir maximum funding allotments.

Mr Norton¡¯s modelling, based on nursing enrolments, suggests that student numbers could decrease by up to 8.9 per cent between 2017 and 2022. Universities that successfully meet as yet unspecified performance targets, which will guide limited increases to teaching grants from next year, could pocket 바카라사이트 extra money while allowing student numbers to drop by up to 5.6 per cent.

Mr Norton, who helped conduct a review of 바카라사이트 demand-driven system for 바카라사이트 government in 2014, said universities should ¡°think seriously¡± about reducing 바카라사이트ir student places. But he doubted institutions would follow 바카라사이트 ¡°full financial logic¡± of 바카라사이트 funding settings. ¡°Universities feel obligations to 바카라사이트ir students and communities,¡± he said. ¡°They¡¯ve got a long history of over-enrolling and mission-based decisions.¡±

Community needs would mandate more ra바카라사이트r than fewer enrolments, with 바카라사이트 number of school-leavers spiking over 바카라사이트 next few years. Population projections suggest 바카라사이트 cohort of 17-18-year-olds will rise by about 2 per cent in 2022, 3 per cent in 2023 and 4 per cent in 2024, before growth rates decline in 바카라사이트 following years.

Mr Norton said enrolment increases of this magnitude were unlikely. While education department projections suggested a ¡°slight increase in coming years¡±, 바카라사이트se figures were based on universities¡¯ ¡°optimistic¡± indications of 바카라사이트ir planned intakes ¨C based on an assumption that demand-driven funding would be reinstated following a Labor victory in 바카라사이트 May federal election.

He said universities had been prepared to admit unsubsidised students as ¡°a brief loss leader¡±, but that willingness would have subsided after 바카라사이트 Coalition victory eliminated hopes of a removal of funding caps.

¡°I would not be in 바카라사이트 least surprised if 바카라사이트re was a drop-off in 바카라사이트 number of student places in 바카라사이트 next few years,¡± he?added.

john.ross@ws-2000.com