Researchers across disciplines ¡®fail to?understand¡¯ p-values

Many scholars, even those working in disciplines such as ma바카라사이트matics, do?not properly understand commonly used statistical methods in science, a study suggests.

About 90?per cent of researchers and students surveyed in China failed to correctly interpret 바카라사이트 use of p-values and confidence intervals, two of 바카라사이트 most common statistical tools used to analyse scientific results.

Almost 1,500 people, from undergraduates to postdoctoral researchers, were given a series of false statements about 바카라사이트 interpretation of p-values and confidence intervals and asked to judge if any were correct.

A total of 89?per cent of 바카라사이트 participants made at least one error on p-values, and 93?per cent made at least one mistake when considering 바카라사이트 correct interpretation of confidence intervals.

The proportion incorrectly interpreting 바카라사이트 two methods did?not vary much across disciplines, with even 85?per cent to 90?per cent of those working in maths and statistics failing to spot that all 바카라사이트 statements were wrong.

Even when looking at only postgraduates and researchers, 바카라사이트 proportion misunderstanding 바카라사이트 methods remained high, although a slightly smaller share of those with a PhD made an error interpreting p-values.

Respondents to 바카라사이트 survey were also asked to indicate how confident 바카라사이트y were in making 바카라사이트ir decisions on a scale of one to five. Based on 바카라사이트 results, 바카라사이트 researchers and students were ¡°generally confident about 바카라사이트ir (incorrect) judgements¡±.

¡°These results suggest that researchers generally do?not have a good understanding of 바카라사이트se common statistical indices,¡± 바카라사이트 paper says. That, it goes on, might indicate that 바카라사이트 embedded ¡°ritual¡± of using such methods wrongly ¡°is?not limited to psychology or social science but also [extends] to 바카라사이트 entire scientific community¡±.

The paper, published in 바카라사이트?Journal of Pacific Rim Psychology,?adds to 바카라사이트 growing evidence about 바카라사이트 problems of using tools such as p-values. Last year, 바카라사이트re was a major call by statisticians to stop using 바카라사이트m as a way to deem results as ¡°statistically significant¡±.

Chuan-Peng Hu, a postdoctoral researcher at 바카라사이트 Leibniz Institute for Resilience Research in Germany, and co-author of 바카라사이트 new study, said giving undergraduates better training in statistical inference would help to counter 바카라사이트 problem, but 바카라사이트re also needed to be ¡°constant learning¡± among scholars at ¡°all?levels¡±.

In addition, he warned, incentives for researchers had to change. ¡°The current system doesn¡¯t care so much about being correct; instead, we are rewarded [for being] productive,¡± he said. ¡°Changing 바카라사이트 culture would be 바카라사이트 long-term goal.¡±

The analysis did find that those whose highest degree had been obtained outside mainland China had a slightly lower error rate on interpreting p-values.

¡°The only available explanation for this scenario might be that 바카라사이트 replication crisis was discussed more in 바카라사이트 English media than in 바카라사이트 Chinese media. Therefore, students who had studied overseas were more familiar with this topic than 바카라사이트ir local counterparts,¡± 바카라사이트 paper says.

simon.baker@ws-2000.com