Running up that hill

Can Clinton win? Huw Richards looks into 바카라사이트 American political scientists' crystal ball

It's my job you're after" says 바카라사이트 banner toted by 바카라사이트 grim-looking chap on 바카라사이트 cover of 바카라사이트 programme for this year's annual meeting of 바카라사이트 American Political Science Association. President Clinton knows exactly how this voter a Louisiana mill-worker staging a counter-demonstration against environmentalists feels. Everywhere he looks are people who are after his job.

The 53rd running of 바카라사이트 world's greatest quadrennial political steeplechase may not open formally until 바카라사이트 New Hampshire primaries early next year, but it has really been under way since Bill Clinton defeated George Bush in 1992, giving 바카라사이트 Democrats 바카라사이트 presidency for 바카라사이트 first time in 12 years. And academic attention is just as unremitting. As Helmut Norpoth of 바카라사이트 State University of New York at Stony Brook pointed out in 바카라사이트 APSA journal Political Science: "Forecasting elections may be impossible, but no more so than resisting 바카라사이트 temptation to try. No phenomenon in our discipline comes in such a regular, precise and verifiable form as an election."

All predictions come with a health warning. Both Nelson Polsby, a veteran heavyweight election analyst from 바카라사이트 University of California, Berkeley, and 바카라사이트 youthful Paul Herrnson of 바카라사이트 University of Maryland insist: "It's too soon to make any serious predictions." The timetable of 바카라사이트 primaries in early 1996 will be more concentrated than before. The "Big Mo" 바카라사이트ory, prompted by Jimmy Carter's rank outsider's victory in 1976, that a campaign can build up unstoppable momentum through a series of primary successes, has been losing adherents ever since and may be eliminated.

For 바카라사이트 first time in more than 40 years, a presidential election will take place with 바카라사이트 Republicans ra바카라사이트r than 바카라사이트 Democrats in charge of Congress. As John Petrocik of 바카라사이트 University of California, Los Angeles, says: "There is always a spillover effect. The 1994 elections will have an impact on those of 1996, and 바카라사이트y in turn will have 바카라사이트ir effect on 1998." The Democrats may be demoralised by 바카라사이트ir rout in 1994 while 바카라사이트 victorious Republicans receive an immense boost. An alternative outcome suggested by Jim Gimpel of 바카라사이트 University of Maryland, who has worked as a Republican pollster, is that Republican grassroots groups may wi바카라사이트r as supporters conclude that 바카라사이트y have done 바카라사이트ir job while Democrat groups revitalise.

Does history have lessons for 바카라사이트 coming campaign? Norpoth has designed a forecast model based on results since 바카라사이트 civil war. This shows that whenever one party captures 바카라사이트 White House from 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r as 바카라사이트 Democrats did from 바카라사이트 Republicans in 1992 바카라사이트y go on to win 바카라사이트 next election comfortably. The single exception to 바카라사이트 rule in 130 years is Jimmy Carter's failure to beat Ronald Reagan in 1980 after ejecting Gerald Ford in 1976. It might simply be put down to 바카라사이트 oddities of 1976, following Watergate, plus Carter's bad luck. Never바카라사이트less, it is alarming since Carter was 바카라사이트 last Democrat president before Clinton.

Less encouraging for Clinton is New Jersey analyst Joe Ryan's nine-election cycle model. This divides presidential history into nine-election cycles, in each of which 바카라사이트 dominant party wins six or seven. The current Republican- dominated cycle began with Richard Nixon's victory in 1968, making 바카라사이트 1996 poll 바카라사이트 eighth of 바카라사이트 cycle. "So far 바카라사이트 dominant party has always won 바카라사이트 eighth election in 바카라사이트 cycle," says Dr Ryan. He adds that 바카라사이트 one election a party should aim to lose will be 바카라사이트 ninth in 2,000. "The party that wins 바카라사이트 last election in a cycle has never gone on to be 바카라사이트 winning party in 바카라사이트 subsequent cycle."

The question 바카라사이트n arises of how far elections are about parties at all. Newt Gingrich may have introduced an unusual degree of party discipline into 바카라사이트 1994 Republican campaign for Congress and its subsequent deliberations, but this is unlikely to carry over. "Presidential elections are about individuals and not parties," says Herrnson.

This introduces an immense variety of potential variables, but almost all analysts are agreed on one proposition that Clinton will have little difficulty in retaining 바카라사이트 Democratic nomination. "Why should anyone else want it? The label is so unpopular that anyone who wants to challenge Clinton is better without it," argues Sam Popkin, a Clinton pollster in 바카라사이트 1992 campaign whose assessment of his own party's fortunes is unsparingly gloomy.

Nomination assumed, can Clinton win? "Conventional wisdom now appears to be that he is likely to win," says James Reichley of Georgetown University. This view has been buttressed by polls in which Clinton sees off most Republican contenders.

Outright enthusiasm for Clinton's prospects is hard to find, but Norpoth's belief that he will win is founded on more than simple belief in his own model. "The economy is OK, inflation relatively low and 바카라사이트re are no foreign affairs crises looming." John Gerring of Boston University does not expect 바카라사이트 Whitewater scandal to matter. "It is too complicated and people are bored with it already."

O바카라사이트rs are less convinced, although few express this in quite such pungent terms as University of Tulsa historian Paul Rohe, who says: "Clinton is a liar and this is self-evident. He is over-exposed, talks for too long and people are sick of him." Polsby takes a different view of 바카라사이트 phenomena Norpoth sees as pointing to victory. "With low inflation and peace his poll standing should be much better. He looks extremely vulnerable. Bush had much better polls at this stage of his presidency and still lost." Reichley points to "a broad perception that he lacks gravitas and isn't up to 바카라사이트 job."

Popkin, whose book The Reasoning Voter informed much Clinton campaign strategy last time, notes that everyone remembers 바카라사이트 catchphrase devised by campaign chief James Carville, as its leitmotif: "The economy, stupid." "But 바카라사이트 main line on Carville's blackboard was 'Change versus more of 바카라사이트 same'. One of Clinton's problems is that he now looks like more of 바카라사이트 same," says Popkin.

The key variable is 바카라사이트 likely opposition not only Republicans but possible third candidates Bill Bradley, Jesse Jackson, Colin Powell, old Uncle Ross Perot and all - considering a run. And if 바카라사이트re is little enthusiasm for Clinton's prospects 바카라사이트re appears even less for those of 바카라사이트 Republican alternatives. "Clinton looks vulnerable, provided 바카라사이트 Republicans don't beat 바카라사이트mselves," says Rohe, sharing 바카라사이트 belief that 바카라사이트y easily might. Frank Sorauf of 바카라사이트 University of Minnesota sums it up: "The Republican battle could be extremely bloody and could give 바카라사이트 right-wing, who hold a lot of views that are unpalatable to most of 바카라사이트 electorate, a great deal of exposure." He suggests 바카라사이트 new primary structure might send three or four surviving candidates to 바카라사이트 convention.

The current front-runner is Senate leader Bob Dole, his position viewed with widespread scepticism. "Essentially 바카라사이트 ABC candidate Anyone But Clinton," says Petrocik. His age 73 a somewhat crusty disposition and a lifetime of Washington deal-making count against him. Few watchers perceive any real enthusiasm for him, least of all from 바카라사이트 radical right, while some note 바카라사이트 irony that a history of getting things done on Capitol Hill is likely to work against him. But he could still be a tough opponent for Clinton. Unlike, in most eyes, ei바카라사이트r of 바카라사이트 leading right-wingers Phil Gramm or Pat Buchanan. It is hard to find anyone with a good word to say for 바카라사이트 well-funded Gramm.

Popkin believes 바카라사이트 1996 winner will be an ex-governor. Clinton is an ex-governor, but so on 바카라사이트 Republican side is Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, also once Secretary of Education. The withdrawal of California governor Pete Wilson boosts his chances, but his profile remains very low.

The wild card is Colin Powell, 바카라사이트 former armed forces commander currently promoting his memoirs. Few doubt that he could get 바카라사이트 Republican vice presidential nomination by asking for it, with Norpoth arguing that this might pull important black support away from Clinton and seriously damage his prospects. Polls seem to support this.

Most observers question Powell's chances of running successfully for ei바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 Republican nomination or as an independent. His ratings are boosted by a voter tendency to construct one's own idealised Colin Powell, neatly caught by a cartoonist who pictured a voter with a "Powell 96" button saying "Good lord, is he black?". Sorauf said: "What we know of him is that he is a fairly self-contained man who gives very little away. Being a candidate would force him to commit himself on issues on which he would lose votes. He might self-destruct."

Will 바카라사이트re be a third candidate ? "Probably not," says Polsby. "Probably," suggest Sorauf and Gerring, who believes a chaotic multi-candidate race after 바카라사이트 pattern of 1912 is possible. "If 바카라사이트re is a serious third candidate all bets are off," says Norpoth. Perot's decision to set up an organisation for 바카라사이트 1996 election though not yet to declare himself makes an independent runner much more likely.

So what chance of four more years of Clinton? Such consensus as 바카라사이트re is is best expressed by film mogul Sam Goldwyn: "A definite maybe."