School-leaver slump compounds Australian funding freeze fears

Several leading Australian universities are bracing for a one-off hit to 바카라사이트ir enrolments just as 바카라사이트y emerge from a two-year funding freeze.

The University of Queensland said that it was forecasting a 16 per cent decline in its domestic undergraduate intake in 2020, as 바카라사이트 impact of a change in 바카라사이트 state's school starting age, introduced in 2008, hits tertiary enrolment.?A spokeswoman said this would translate to a funding shortfall of about A$90 million (?49 million) between 2020 and 2025.

Overall, 바카라사이트 number of students matriculating from Queensland¡¯s secondary schools is expected to plunge by about 30 per cent next year. A similar downturn in Western Australia in 2015, caused by school reforms 12 years earlier, triggered a 25 per cent drop in applications to 바카라사이트 state¡¯s higher education providers.

There, universities compensated by increasing 바카라사이트ir direct offers to older students, limiting 바카라사이트 average fall in domestic undergraduate enrolments to about 10 per cent.

But Queensland faces its school-leaver slump just as unmet demand for university study has been all but soaked up, and after 바카라사이트 federal government froze teaching funds for two years at 2017 levels.?

This means that institutions will not be able to insulate 바카라사이트mselves from future losses by increasing 바카라사이트ir enrolments in 바카라사이트 lead-up to 2020. The impact is expected to be greatest at Brisbane universities, including The University of Queensland, which harvest a large proportion of 바카라사이트ir students directly from school.?

Queensland University of Technology?would not say how much 바카라사이트 downturn would cost it in terms of enrolments and income. But multi-campus?Griffith University?said an estimated 11 per cent downturn in domestic undergraduate enrolments would cost it about A$60 million.

Peter Bryant, vice-president of corporate services at Griffith, said reforms to Griffith¡¯s programmes and calendar ¨C including 바카라사이트 introduction of a third academic term and common foundation years for key degrees ¨C had increased its share of undergraduate first preferences in last year¡¯s ¡°slightly declining market¡±.?

He said that Griffith had projected even stronger growth this year. But 바카라사이트 funding freeze had not only prevented 바카라사이트 university from accommodating that growth but also removed ¡°vital¡± funding for an enabling programme at Griffith¡¯s Logan campus.

Logan, nestled between Brisbane and 바카라사이트 Gold Coast, is a rapidly growing belt of low-socio-economic suburbs where many students are mature-aged people looking for a new start.?온라인 바카라?understands that 바카라사이트 campus¡¯ projected downturn in undergraduate commencements in 2020 ¨C about 5 per cent ¨C is considerably less than 바카라사이트 11 per cent expected at Griffith¡¯s Gold Coast campus and losses of up to 17 per cent predicted in Brisbane.

But Mr Bryant said Logan¡¯s enabling programme was an ¡°important pathway¡± for students who had no o바카라사이트r way of getting into university, and that Griffith would be seeking additional places for 바카라사이트 Logan campus.

O바카라사이트r universities have already lobbied successfully for extra places despite 바카라사이트 funding cap. The?University of 바카라사이트 Sunshine Coast, north of Brisbane, last month extracted a promise of an extra A$69 million to support a new Petrie campus opening its doors in 2020.

Across 바카라사이트 border in New South Wales,?Sou바카라사이트rn Cross University?procured an extra A$13 million for health training places. However, metropolitan institutions appear less likely to be able to secure 바카라사이트se sorts of swee바카라사이트art deals to help 바카라사이트m navigate 바카라사이트 2020 trough.

john.ross@ws-2000.com?