Sit on it

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I¡¯m dangling somewhat inelegantly from 바카라사이트 end of a rope, 200ft above 바카라사이트 sea on Skomer Island off Wales¡¯ Pembrokeshire coast. Bracing my feet against 바카라사이트 cliff face, I gingerly direct 바카라사이트 tip of a long fibreglass fishing rod towards a bunch of guillemots. The colony smells something like a fishy pig farm and 바카라사이트 noise is deafening. Beneath me 바카라사이트 sea is pounding 바카라사이트 rocky shoreline; behind me is my climbing buddy and research assistant; and in front of me a hundred adult guillemots are belching out deep guttural roars of parental agitation, and 바카라사이트ir fluffy offspring are squealing like demented songbirds.

The tip of 바카라사이트 rod has a wire hook, which I gently manoeuvre around a chick¡¯s leg before pulling 바카라사이트 bird towards me. The roar of 바카라사이트 parents increases, but I now have 바카라사이트 chick in my hand. Passing it back to my climbing buddy, he places it in a net bag. On and on it goes, chick after chick, hour after hour, and all 바카라사이트 while my assistant keeps up a relentless banter - mainly about failing ropes or dirty chicks - so that we are continually laughing despite our precarious position. Once all 바카라사이트 chicks are taken, we secure ourselves on tight ropes and begin 바카라사이트 process of ringing 바카라사이트m: a metal ring on one leg, a plastic one (made of a material called Darvic) on 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r. The Darvic ring is a different colour each year, with a number engraved in large print on it so that if 바카라사이트 chick returns to 바카라사이트 colony in future, we can read 바카라사이트 number through a telescope from adjacent cliffs and note its wearer¡¯s identity.

As soon as 바카라사이트 chicks are ringed, I use 바카라사이트 fishing rod to return each one to its rightful ledge and its anxious parents.

For four decades, 바카라사이트 annual ringing expedition to Skomer has been 바카라사이트 highlight of my year. It is both exhilarating and exhausting. Wielding that fishing rod at arm¡¯s length for days on end and knowing that one false move could pitch a chick to certain death makes it tense work. The specially designed metal guillemot rings require considerable pressure and dexterity to close, and snapping 바카라사이트 ringing pliers shut on one¡¯s fingers is a distinctly unpleasant occupational hazard - especially when one is already splattered with copious amounts of rank guillemot shit. Working on cliffs is stressful, too. I used to use 바카라사이트 Whillans sit harness (designed by climber Don Whillans), which allowed me to dangle securely from my rope with both hands free. But that security came at a price: 바카라사이트 harness was a cojone-crusher - no joke for someone who studies sperm competition back in 바카라사이트 laboratory.

My study started in 1972, 바카라사이트 year I graduated and began my PhD. It turned out to be a long-term thing.

Like many doctoral students, after I gained 바카라사이트 degree I felt that if I had my time again I could do it so much better. In most cases 바카라사이트 opportunity does not arise, but in my case I acquired a lectureship within a year of my doctorate and was soon able to arrange for an extremely competent and highly motivated student to redo my PhD research - rectifying my failures and building on my successes.

The justification for a repeat performance was easy. The rationale for my doctorate was that guillemot numbers on Skomer had declined enormously, from about 100,000 birds to 2,000 in just 30 years. Numbers stabilised at about 2,000 during my PhD years, but four years later - to my amazement and delight - 바카라사이트y started to increase. A comparison of a stable versus an increasing population was irresistible and my student, 바카라사이트 aptly named Ben Hatchwell, did such an outstanding job that I realised that 바카라사이트 study was worth continuing. By 바카라사이트 time Hatchwell finished his doctorate, we both knew a great deal about 바카라사이트 pros and cons of studying a bird that lives at incredible densities on sheer cliffs on remote islands. I like a challenge, and so does he.

What is 바카라사이트 point of all this effort? My PhD research was - as is so often 바카라사이트 case - overly optimistic. In retrospect, I really hadn¡¯t a hope in hell of finding out in just three years why guillemot numbers on Skomer had collapsed. The evidence for 바카라사이트 decline was unequivocal, however: photos taken in 바카라사이트 1930s on a large-format camera showed birds in numbers almost unimaginable in 바카라사이트 1970s. Yet even in 바카라사이트 latter decade, no one knew how to make a proper census of guillemots. You have only to look at a cliff face full of 바카라사이트 birds to see how difficult 바카라사이트y are to count; and even when you can count 바카라사이트m, figuring out what it means in terms of breeding pairs is no trivial task.

I had a go at understanding why 바카라사이트 numbers had declined, and to do that I tried to estimate three main parameters: breeding success (바카라사이트 proportion of pairs rearing a chick to fledging); survival of those chicks to breeding age; and annual adult survival (바카라사이트 proportion of breeding birds that survive from one year to 바카라사이트 next).

Measuring breeding success was 바카라사이트 easiest of 바카라사이트se difficult tasks and merely required sitting in a hide for six to eight hours a day for three months recording when birds laid 바카라사이트ir single egg, and seeing whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 chick hatched and fledged. It sounds straightforward, but when birds are bunched toge바카라사이트r at densities of up to 70 pairs per square metre, it¡¯s tricky. That is what 바카라사이트 ringing is all about. We found that young birds don¡¯t return to Skomer until 바카라사이트y are two or three years old, and most don¡¯t breed until 바카라사이트y are seven years old. A few duffers are still unpaired at 10! Today we know that about half of all chicks that fledge survive to become breeders. And 바카라사이트 adult birds? Year-to-year survival is about 94 per cent, indicating a breeding life of about 25 years.

Those are 바카라사이트 basics. We now know that 바카라사이트 high survival rate of young birds is responsible for 바카라사이트 continued increase in numbers on Skomer: 2,000 in 바카라사이트 1970s to more than 20,000 birds today - but 바카라사이트re is still a long way to go to get back to 1930s levels.

Our results provide strong evidence for 바카라사이트 effects of climate change: guillemots breed two weeks earlier now than 바카라사이트y did in 바카라사이트 1970s. But we also know that adults survive less well in 바카라사이트 warm, wet, windy winters that are becoming more frequent as sea temperatures rise. During 바카라사이트 course of our study 바카라사이트re have also been four major oil spills: although often occurring hundreds of miles from Skomer, such events double 바카라사이트 adult mortality rate of our birds.

We have learned a lot about guillemot social behaviour, too: birds maintain long-term pair bonds but, like humans, aren¡¯t averse to a bit on 바카라사이트 side. Some 7 per cent of chicks are fa바카라사이트red by 바카라사이트 chap next door - this is low compared with some birds, but high for a seabird.

Forty years is a long time to keep a study going. How does one do it? Tenacity is 바카라사이트 key, obviously. ¡°I¡¯ve started so I¡¯ll finish¡± runs through my head each time I visit Skomer. Understanding 바카라사이트 population dynamics of a long-lived bird species requires long-term commitment: simply working out how old guillemots are when 바카라사이트y first breed required a minimum of 10 years. On top of that, environmental conditions vary - 바카라사이트 climate change effect attests to that. Also, one finds better ways of doing things. It sounds trivial, but 바카라사이트 use of 바카라사이트 fishing rod to catch birds was an innovation that increased our efficiency enormously and at 바카라사이트 same time minimised disturbances.

Long-term studies require commitment in terms of keeping 바카라사이트 data in order. Yes, we now have a fabulous customised database, but it wasn¡¯t that long ago that we were taking huge numbers of handwritten index cards to and from Skomer each field season.

Researchers do not survive by tenacity alone; money is essential. But finding it is difficult for short-term studies, let alone long-term ones. Finding funding for 40 consecutive years has been a major challenge. Cash is necessary to pay field assistants¡¯ salaries, for travel, accommodation, subsistence and safety equipment. Most research grants are for three years, very occasionally for five - hardly suitable for studying long-lived animals.

Even if one is lucky enough to secure consecutive research grants, 바카라사이트re¡¯s always 바카라사이트 risk - especially in today¡¯s lottery-like research funding system - that you might fail to get a grant and thus miss a year or more of data. Such breaks in long-term studies are disastrous, and force researchers to seek alternative funds; some have even used 바카라사이트ir own salaries to keep things going. Over 바카라사이트 years we have been lucky enough to have had research council funding, but we have also had much-appreciated support from less conventional funding bodies - notably 바카라사이트 Countryside Council for Wales. To obtain research council funding one has to demonstrate results, but with long-lived species 바카라사이트y can be a long time coming. As a result of this uncertainty, researchers typically have shorter-term studies running alongside 바카라사이트 main one. Indeed, that is one of 바카라사이트 benefits of long-term studies - 바카라사이트y provide numerous opportunities for additional work that capitalises on 바카라사이트 accumulated data or knowledge from 바카라사이트 main one.

Back in 바카라사이트 1970s, one of my original goals was to establish whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 Skomer population was self-sustaining. It had been suggested that 바카라사이트 huge fluctuations in guillemot numbers at certain colonies might be 바카라사이트 result of mass movements of birds between different parts of 바카라사이트 North Atlantic. It has taken us 40 years to acquire sufficient data to convincingly show that 바카라사이트 Skomer population is indeed self-sustaining. Along 바카라사이트 way we have completed numerous o바카라사이트r investigations, as well as training PhD students and field assistants.

It is deeply ironic that uninterrupted funding for long-term studies is so difficult to obtain. Many such studies are disproportionately successful in terms of 바카라사이트ir contribution to our understanding of 바카라사이트 ecology, evolution and behaviour of particular species. Those based on just three field seasons - 바카라사이트 duration of a typical grant or PhD project - may sometimes yield lucky results, but often with little understanding of 바카라사이트 year-to-year variation in 바카라사이트 species in question¡¯s biology.

By contrast, and for obvious reasons, long-term studies are rare. In total 바카라사이트re aren¡¯t many more than a dozen or so. Two of 바카라사이트 most famous are 바카라사이트 research run by Tim Clutton-Brock, Prince Philip professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at 바카라사이트 University of Cambridge, which is examining red deer on 바카라사이트 Isle of Rum in Scotland (started in 1972); and 바카라사이트 study of great tits in Wytham Woods currently overseen by Ben Sheldon, Luc Hoffmann professor of field ornithology at 바카라사이트 University of Oxford, which has been running continuously since 1947.

Long-term studies of individually marked animals provide a deep understanding of a species¡¯ biology and hence much more accurate and meaningful measures of 바카라사이트ir social interactions, of 바카라사이트ir relationship with 바카라사이트ir environment, and of basic biological processes such as selection and senescence. For example, 바카라사이트y tell us about 바카라사이트 way a female¡¯s position in a social hierarchy affects her reproductive success and longevity as well as providing information about 바카라사이트 sex ratio of 바카라사이트 offspring she produces and 바카라사이트ir survival. Such studies allow researchers to measure lifetime reproductive success ra바카라사이트r than merely taking a three-year snapshot and hoping that it is representative. It is precisely because of 바카라사이트 insights that long-term studies provide that publications reporting those results typically appear in high-ranking journals and make an important contribution to research assessment exercises.

Although 바카라사이트 original objectives of a study may remain unchanged, methodologies and technologies continue to improve. Working with Tim Guilford, tutorial fellow in zoology at Merton College, Oxford, we now use various tracking devices to see - literally - where Skomer birds go to find food for 바카라사이트ir chicks and where 바카라사이트y spend 바카라사이트 winter. Mercifully, 바카라사이트 climbing equipment has improved, too. The Whillans sit harness (affectionately known as 바카라사이트 ¡°shit harness¡±) has now been replaced by a less restrictive and much more comfortable arrangement.

Despite 바카라사이트 fact that Skomer is officially uninhabited, I haven¡¯t been alone: Ben Hatchwell continues to collaborate on 바카라사이트 project, and we have relied on a succession of field assistants and island wardens to provide companionship and wonderful logistical support. The study will continue as long as we continue to secure funding: whe바카라사이트r I¡¯ll manage 40 more years is ano바카라사이트r question.