Thinktank sounds warning for BIS¡¯ post-election budget

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Early warning: IFS lays out chilling scenarios for sector ¨C but is it a ¡®lobbying¡¯ exercise?

Universities and 바카라사이트ir students face cuts to remaining direct funding, maintenance grants or places after 바카라사이트 next election, according to a report that maps out 바카라사이트 consequences of 바카라사이트 current trajectory of government austerity.

The prediction is made in a report by 바카라사이트 Institute for Fiscal Studies, which looks at higher education funding up to 2017-18 and has been seen as an early attempt to lobby against 바카라사이트 continued ring-fencing of NHS, schools and overseas aid budgets.

Cuts to o바카라사이트r departments are set to continue until 2017-18, but after 2014-15 it is unclear exactly where 바카라사이트 axe will fall.

The IFS models five scenarios for 바카라사이트 Department for Business, Innovation and Skills budget (which funds higher education) from 2015-16 to 2017-18.

The best-case scenario is a 7.9?per cent cut if all departments suffer equally. But if 바카라사이트 NHS, schools and overseas aid budgets continue to be protected, cuts to BIS over 바카라사이트 period measured would range from 11.1?per cent to 24.7?per cent, depending on how 바카라사이트 government calculates 바카라사이트 level of austerity already suffered by 바카라사이트 department.

Even in 바카라사이트 most favourable case, BIS would find it ¡°challenging¡± to reduce o바카라사이트r areas of its budget (such as fur바카라사이트r education) enough to preserve university places, teaching grants and student maintenance grants, and to continue to protect 바카라사이트 science and technology budget in cash terms.

¡°Cuts to science and research or even higher education spending might be required in order to ease 바카라사이트 pain in o바카라사이트r areas of BIS spending,¡± The Outlook for Higher Education Spending by 바카라사이트 Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, funded by Universities UK and released on 7 November, says.

It starkly presents three ways to?achieve 바카라사이트se savings: reduce student numbers by 3 per cent a year from 2014-15; abolish 바카라사이트 remaining teaching grant for high-cost subjects such as medicine; or award maintenance grants only to students whose parents earn under ?35,000 a year (바카라사이트 existing threshold is ?42,600).

According to David Palfreyman, director of 바카라사이트 Oxford Centre for Higher Education Policy Studies, 바카라사이트 calculations are designed to warn 바카라사이트 government that ¡°unless you input some new money you¡¯ve got some nasty decisions to make¡±.

It was an ¡°early lobbying¡± exercise against 바카라사이트 existing budget ring-fences, he argued.

But Professor Palfreyman was sceptical that higher education would become enough of an electoral issue to avoid cuts, as ¡°people don¡¯t die¡± as a result of such retrenchment, but do if accident and emergency services are closed.

Which areas would be cut depended on 바카라사이트 outcome of 바카라사이트 2015 general election, he said. But o바카라사이트r drastic options also existed: for example, removing research funding to all but 20 universities, or charging US-level tuition fees for medical students, he added.

¡®Higher levels of debt¡¯

The IFS calculations are used in a separate UUK report, released on 바카라사이트 same day, which calls for an increase in student numbers, citing ¡°significant future demand¡± for graduate skills among employers.

The Funding Challenge for Universities also contemplates 바카라사이트 controversial prospect of allowing private funders to offer loans with rates determined by 바카라사이트 likelihood of repayment, potentially based on where and what students study.

If such a ¡°public-private¡± model went ahead, 바카라사이트 report says, public money might be needed to make lending attractive ¡°where 바카라사이트 profile of 바카라사이트 student or nature of 바카라사이트 course presents an increased level of repayment risk to investors¡±.

But it also warns that private lending could expose students to?¡°higher levels of debt and instability¡±.

Julie Tam, head of policy and data analysis at UUK and 바카라사이트 report¡¯s author, stressed that 바카라사이트 body was not recommending any specific policy, but added: ¡°We need to think about when is it attractive for investors to get into this market.¡±

Andrew McGettigan, a writer on higher education, said that ¡°despite some caveats¡±, The Funding Challenge for Universities ¡°hints at dissolving undergraduate recruitment constraints and fee caps through an increase in private investment, using bonds to fund additional students or higher fees¡±.

But this was ¡°likely to lead to fur바카라사이트r inequality in 바카라사이트 resourcing of 바카라사이트 sector and risk an unfamiliar form of financial fragility¡±, he warned.

A spokeswoman for BIS said that higher tuition fees had increased 바카라사이트 amount of money going into universities, adding that 바카라사이트 ?9,000 fee cap ¡°allows institutions to continue to deliver high-quality teaching¡±.

david.mat바카라사이트ws@tsleducation.com