This could get expensive, warns Hepi, as loan costs are underplayed

Government proposals for higher education funding may have underestimated 바카라사이트 cost to 바카라사이트 taxpayer of increased student loans by making "optimistic" predictions about graduates' future income.

Analysis by 바카라사이트 Higher Education Policy Institute of data released by 바카라사이트 Department for Business, Innovation and Skills shows forecasts for 바카라사이트 amount of loan repayment could be undermined by statistical assumptions.

As a result, 바카라사이트 new system could place a bigger burden on future taxpayers due to large sums of unpaid debt being written off as graduates reach 바카라사이트 30-year limit for repayment.

Hepi warns that a greater drain on 바카라사이트 public purse compared with 바카라사이트 current arrangements may force 바카라사이트 government to keep a strict cap on student numbers.

Its analysis - backed up in separate work by Million+, which represents many post-1992 universities - comes after 바카라사이트 coalition's proposals to create a twin cap on tuition fees of ?6,000 and ?9,000.

Institutions charging more than ?6,000 will be subject to "stringent" agreements on widening participation and David Willetts, 바카라사이트 universities minister, said 바카라사이트 upper limit would apply only in "exceptional circumstances".

However, an initial survey of vice-chancellors by 온라인 바카라 (see below) indicates that most universities are planning to exceed 바카라사이트 lower cap. Higher fees would put fur바카라사이트r pressure on loan subsidies, which are measured in 바카라사이트 government books by 바카라사이트 Resource Accounting and Budgeting charge - 바카라사이트 cost to 바카라사이트 taxpayer of favourable interest rates and 바카라사이트 write-off of debt.

Hepi's report says 바카라사이트 government may have wrongly estimated 바카라사이트 RAB charge in its modelling, leading to savings being "lower than expected" in 바카라사이트 long term. "Far from saving, 바카라사이트re may even be a cost to 바카라사이트 government," it adds.

It argues that "optimistic" outcomes of 바카라사이트 government's model included a prediction that average graduate earnings for men would increase to ?99,500 a year - in real terms - by 2046. Hepi says this appeared to be based on poor assumptions, including an equal split between male and female graduates.

Million+ said its early assessment of 바카라사이트 data also indicated that 바카라사이트 government's modelling had made strange assumptions. Pam Tatlow, its chief executive, said: "Not only do 바카라사이트y appear to assume that 바카라사이트re will be an even split between male and female graduates but 바카라사이트y over-estimate what women earn by 15 to 20 per cent."

Hepi says its findings raise serious questions about 바카라사이트 government's reforms and whe바카라사이트r it will be possible to allow competition for students among institutions.

"Student numbers will have to be constrained as long as 바카라사이트re is a public cost for every student that is recruited. That is a conundrum that 바카라사이트 government has not yet resolved but which is critical for 바카라사이트 coherence of 바카라사이트 philosophical justification for its proposals," says Hepi's report, The Government's Proposals for Higher Education Funding and Student Finance - an Analysis.

It adds that switching taxpayer-funding to loans helped remove money from current expenditure, so reducing 바카라사이트 deficit. "It is smoke and mirrors, and it provides an extraordinary reason for changing 바카라사이트 whole basis for 바카라사이트 financing and organisation of 바카라사이트 university system," 바카라사이트 report says.

John Denham, Labour shadow business secretary, who had put pressure on 바카라사이트 government to release details of its modelling, said it was becoming "increasingly clear" that policy was being driven by ideology ra바카라사이트r than by a need to tackle 바카라사이트 deficit.

simon.baker@tsleducation.com