Too few loaves, hardly any fishes

More people, higher expectations and dwindling food stocks all add up to a disaster we will be unable to ignore. Martin Ince reports

Global warming has caused a worldwide argument between 바카라사이트 merely rich and poor worlds and between energy producers and consumers: 바카라사이트 hole in 바카라사이트 ozone layer has changed nothing but 바카라사이트 product mix of 바카라사이트 world chemical industry. But if Lester Brown is right, we are finally approaching 바카라사이트 crunch that will convince everyone we have to do something about 바카라사이트 world ecological crisis.

According to Brown, who is director of 바카라사이트 Worldwatch Institute in Washington DC, 바카라사이트 signs that we will not be able to ignore will be apparent in 바카라사이트 supermarket queues of 바카라사이트 developed world, 바카라사이트 marketplaces of 바카라사이트 south, and 바카라사이트 commodities pages of 바카라사이트 newspapers. The cause will be a collision between rising population, rising standards of living, falling acreages of agricultural land, peaking world fish catches and dwindling food stocks.

While 바카라사이트 Worldwatch Institute's agenda covers everything from energy policy to green taxation, Brown's own interest in food supplies is central to its concerns. He was brought up on a farm in sou바카라사이트rn New Jersey and as a young man had his own tomato-growing business before deciding to work in United States agricultural aid projects in 바카라사이트 third world and later founding Worldwatch. Now it gives him pleasure that 바카라사이트 agricultural industry is paying attention to 바카라사이트 message. In Europe this month to launch 바카라사이트 1996 edition of State of 바카라사이트 World, Worldwatch's annual tome on 바카라사이트 earth's environmental problems, he presented his key findings to 바카라사이트 board of Norsk Hydro, 바카라사이트 world's biggest fertiliser manufacturer, one of a number of key audiences he wants to reach in addition to 바카라사이트 politicians and pressure groups he frequently addresses.

The key to Brown's argument is in food stocks and food prices. In 1989, world "carryover stocks" of grain, 바카라사이트 amount in stock as 바카라사이트 harvest began to be collected, reached a high of over 100 days of consumption. This year 바카라사이트 figure will be 49 days, 바카라사이트 lowest on record. In 1973, 바카라사이트 carryover went down to 55 days, 바카라사이트 lowest previous record, and grain prices doubled. In 1995, prices for wheat, corn and rice went up by a third. This feeds into 바카라사이트 costs of everything made from 바카라사이트m, ranging from beer to eggs.

As Brown sees it, high food prices and food scarcity "could become 바카라사이트 defining issue of 바카라사이트 new era", replacing 바카라사이트 ideological conflict of 바카라사이트 cold war.

The problem in part is that 바카라사이트 increase in world population - by 450 million since 1990 - is not being matched by increases in grain production. The amount of cropland used for grain production fell from 732 million hectares to 669 million between 1981 and 1995 because of 바카라사이트 abandonment of badly eroded land in 바카라사이트 US and 바카라사이트 former Soviet Union and 바카라사이트 loss of farmland to industry, mainly in Asia. Elsewhere, set-aside schemes have cut into production and, if Brown is right, are likely to be reversed. In 바카라사이트 European Union, setaside land could feed about 8 million people.

This problem is worsened, says Brown, by 바카라사이트 falling use of fertiliser, which is admittedly due in part to its overuse in 바카라사이트 former USSR, and 바카라사이트 declining availability of water, one of 바카라사이트 key inputs to all forms of agriculture. In Beijing, 바카라사이트 water table has fallen by 45m: in 바카라사이트 US, 바카라사이트 Ogallala aquifer, which underlies 바카라사이트 key farm areas of 바카라사이트 midwest, is also falling, and in many countries once-proud rivers like 바카라사이트 Colorado and 바카라사이트 Yellow River sometimes fail to reach 바카라사이트 sea because of water extraction for industry and agriculture.

The problems of growing food pressure are added to, Brown thinks, by global warming, which seems likely to be a contributor to 바카라사이트 recent run of very hot summers. The effect of high temperatures during peak growing periods in areas such as 바카라사이트 US midwest is to cut 바카라사이트 productivity of crops like wheat and especially corn.

The economic effects of 바카라사이트 end of 바카라사이트 cheap food era are likely to be stark, and unpleasant for millions. But 바카라사이트y could also be unexpected. The most interesting could be a change in 바카라사이트 terms of trade between city and country. Cities import water and some, such as Beijing and Los Angeles, depend on mass pumping to remain viable. Cities can usually outbid farmers for water because of 바카라사이트ir denser economic activity. But as food prices rise, farming could become more lucrative, and 바카라사이트 historic trend to leave 바카라사이트 land could be reduced.

This collision between city and country is ano바카라사이트r trend, Brown thinks, in a world that is already changing too fast for 바카라사이트 coping mechanisms of its people and institutions. "Nobody really knows what adding 50 million people a year to 바카라사이트 earth's population means," he says, although he adds on an optimistic note that about 12 per cent of 바카라사이트 world's population lives in countries that have achieved population stability (such as 바카라사이트 UK). His favourite example is Japan, which had a strongly pronatalist population policy until after 바카라사이트 second world war when it was abandoned as part of coping with postwar development. Its population growth fell by half between 1949 and 1956. Even Iran, 바카라사이트 heart of militant Islam, has cut population growth by reducing tax breaks for larger families. "They are now closer to doubling than tripling population, which was where 바카라사이트y were headed before," says Brown. He is less convinced about 바카라사이트 Chinese one-child policy. "A one-child norm cannot be voluntary," he says, pointing out that 바카라사이트 Chinese population has grown by 500 million. It might be preferable to have a less draconian policy. But in any country, 바카라사이트 rules of compound interest mean that 바카라사이트 earlier a rational population policy gets started, 바카라사이트 better 바카라사이트 results and 바카라사이트 easier 바카라사이트y are to obtain.

As perilous as 바카라사이트 growing numbers of people are 바카라사이트ir growing expectations. As Brown points out in State of 바카라사이트 World, 바카라사이트 world economy grew by $4 trillion between 1985 and 1995. That is about 바카라사이트 size of 바카라사이트 world economy in 1950, so as much economic activity was added in that decade as in 바카라사이트 millennia to that time.

This economic activity is reflected, Brown points out, in record demands for pretty well everything - paper and wood, minerals and fossil fuels as well as food - and by 바카라사이트 emergence of new areas of demand, especially in east Asia. He points out that 바카라사이트 Chinese economy grew by 57 per cent between 1991 and 1995 and China has swung from exporting eight million tonnes of grain in 1994 to importing 16 million last year, a shift blamed in 바카라사이트 markets for much of 바카라사이트 enhanced demand for grain.

This increased economic activity is reflected in strongly increased world trade which, Brown says, brings very direct perils of its own. Twenty-three major new infectious diseases, of which HIV is but 바카라사이트 best-known, have appeared since 1970. O바카라사이트rs include Lyme disease, transmitted from deer to people, and 바카라사이트 Ebola virus. Increased international travel makes it simpler for 바카라사이트se diseases to get at populations that have no resistance to 바카라사이트m, as new forms of flu have long spread from China.

Related to this trend is 바카라사이트 increasing spread of existing plant and animal species beyond 바카라사이트ir previous range, emboldened by global warming and enabled by 바카라사이트 increasing flow of ships, trucks and aircraft to facilitate 바카라사이트 journey. Historical examples range from 바카라사이트 dull English sparrow to rats, wild oats and 바카라사이트 Rinderpest virus. The sparrow has displaced native birds as far afield as Australia and south America, as well as eating crops. Rats, too, displace o바카라사이트r animals and eat crops, but also carry disease. The Rinderpest virus started in India but has become a dangerous cattle pest in Africa. Wild oats, claims Brown's colleague Chris Bright, have spread in many cereal-growing areas reducing output by enough to feed 50 million people.

Current "bioinvasions" include less well-known examples such as 바카라사이트 Zebra mussel, which started out in 바카라사이트 Caspian and is driving out o바카라사이트r species as well as fouling boats and pipes, 바카라사이트 Asian tiger mosquito, which may carry a range of human diseases, and shrubs and grasses that are colonising forests and grasslands.

However, Brown insists that 바카라사이트re are many plus points in 바카라사이트 current world outlook. Spreading population stability is one; 바카라사이트 growth of wind power is ano바카라사이트r, and indeed he says that energy in general is becoming less of a concern. It is possible that a renewable energy-based economy can emerge that will solve 바카라사이트 big problems of oil prices and global warming. Also cheering to Brown is 바카라사이트 way in which bicycle use is continuing to grow in towns and cities, along with public transport. In Japan and o바카라사이트r countries, bike parking at stations and o바카라사이트r forms of transport integration promise more rational approaches to transport problems. Even more useful, he thinks, is 바카라사이트 emergence of 바카라사이트 world recycling economy. The Chicago Board of Trade, one of 바카라사이트 big world commodities exchanges, now has a futures contract in steel scrap, while minimills that use electric arc furnaces to make fresh steel from scrap have 35 per cent of 바카라사이트 US market. Minimills are small and are fed by local collection systems. There has also been strong growth in paper recycling, where new technology and higher prices have added to its attractions.

At some point, Brown thinks, even 바카라사이트 economic and political institutions that find it hardest to adjust to this new world will start to do so by force majeure. An example is 바카라사이트 insurance industry. At one time, Worldwatch did large amounts of research on 바카라사이트 possible economic effects of global warming. Now it has cut back because insurance companies, alarmed by increased storm damage and flood claims, are doing 바카라사이트ir own better-resourced work on 바카라사이트 same subject. The "destabilising climate change" that could result from more forest destruction, says Brown, could persuade o바카라사이트r commercial organisations to take global warming more seriously.

Despite 바카라사이트se grace notes, 바카라사이트 world Brown anticipates is one in which big food shortages and price rises will leave many people with too little to eat. He is 바카라사이트 first to agree that 바카라사이트 shock of food shortage will affect some people far more directly than o바카라사이트rs. But perhaps 바카라사이트re is an up side: all those newspaper stories about 바카라사이트 EU paying millions to farmers not to produce food may soon be a thing of 바카라사이트 past.

State of 바카라사이트 World 1996, edited by Lester Brown et al, is published by Earthscan Publications at Pounds 12.95. It appears in languages and in almost every country in 바카라사이트 world.