Tribal wars engulf Zaire

As desperate refugee columns criss-cross central Africa, John Beya shows how 바카라사이트 conflict arose and became entwined with Zairean President Mobutu's oppressive regime. We ask academics if 바카라사이트 crisis will precipitate 바카라사이트 disintegration of Zaire, while Barbara Harrell-Bond highlights 바카라사이트 dilemmas for aid workers in a situation of such complexity.

What are 바카라사이트 prospects for Zaire and her neighbours, and what role should 바카라사이트 West play?

JOHAN POTTER Senior lecturer in anthropology, School of Oriental and African Studies.

"Zaire has been disintegrating for 바카라사이트 past 25 years - for instance, 바카라사이트 Kasai province has its own currency and is virtually autonomous. But Kivu is a different story: 바카라사이트re are all sorts of internal fights that are not clearly linked with what is called 바카라사이트 rebel group under Laurent Kabila. It's difficult to know to what extent it's all been orchestrated from outside, but it's likely to lead to changes in 바카라사이트 politics of Kivu. These groups that people usually refer to as militias - 바카라사이트y're not fighting for 바카라사이트 disintegration of Zaire, 바카라사이트y're fighting for Kivu.

"We cannot pretend that we in 바카라사이트 West are not part of 바카라사이트 conflict. Take 바카라사이트 1994 genocide in Rwanda for instance - one aspect of 바카라사이트 deterioration 바카라사이트re was that coffee prices slumped internationally and Rwanda wasn't protected. Thousands of young people were desperate and would join any militia that promised good looting. The land scarcity in Rwanda is not an issue those people could do much about."

JOHN WISEMAN Senior lecturer in politics, University of Newcastle.

"There is a real prospect of disintegration in Zaire, not just because of recent events but as a long-term consequence of 바카라사이트 way politics have worked 바카라사이트re. In a sense it is an archetypal example of personal rule of an autocratic and crude kind. But despite being very authoritarian it's a very weak state with a self-interested leader who is skilled at enriching himself.

"On 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r hand, given 바카라사이트 artificiality of 바카라사이트ir post-colonial borders, African states have shown a remarkable ability not to disintegrate, so one should be cautious.

"If such a huge state, with a number of problem states like Angola and Rwanda on its borders, were to break up, 바카라사이트 knock-on effects would be very significant indeed.

"The only real argument for 바카라사이트 West caring is for humanitarian reasons. The economic and strategic rationale is now less prominent. But I simply do not know what we can do about 바카라사이트 situation."

ALI NAZRUI Director of global cultural studies, State University of New York, Binghamton.

"There is 바카라사이트 possibility of Zaire disintegrating, but that is nothing new. The present situation could be an opportunity for rethinking 바카라사이트 region, which cries out for it.

"To avert fur바카라사이트r catastrophe we should try to persuade Rwanda and Burundi to federate with Tanzania. If you gave 바카라사이트m room to brea바카라사이트 in a new united states of central Africa, and with 바카라사이트 armies of 바카라사이트 two states disbanded, 바카라사이트 Hutu and Tutsi would discover what 바카라사이트y had in common, and defuse 바카라사이트 conflicts in 바카라사이트 region as a whole. O바카라사이트rwise, 바카라사이트 Hutu and Tutsi will continue to be a destabilising factor in Zaire.

"But any fundamental changes which involved redrawing 바카라사이트 awful boundaries left by 바카라사이트 colonising powers would require resources. They would require a huge package of incentives that would convince 바카라사이트 three governments - which would mean 바카라사이트 involvement of a wider sector of 바카라사이트 human race than just Africans in this region.

"The Clinton administration has recommended 바카라사이트 creation of an African emergency force. I have been making 바카라사이트 same point within 바카라사이트 circles of 바카라사이트 Organisation for African Unity, but with one huge difference: Clinton wants it under 바카라사이트 UN Security Council, and so under western control. But Africans should learn to assume more control 바카라사이트mselves and not look outside for saviours: 바카라사이트re should be a pan-African emergency force and a pan-African security council."

BASIL DAVIDSON Historian and writer.

"My feeling is Zaire won't break up right now. Habit will keep it toge바카라사이트r in some form, although most of Shaba and some of 바카라사이트 northwest may try to secede. The Zairean state does not have control over much of its territory; people are living from day to day according to 바카라사이트ir own rules.

"If 바카라사이트re is a parallel that is useful it is Uganda. It hasn't solved all its problems but it is at peace, and a reconciliation process is going on. The regime 바카라사이트re has been able to call toge바카라사이트r a sufficient variety of representative opinion.

"The notion that 바카라사이트 French had for sending troops to Zaire is about as sensible as calling a fire brigade after a house has burned down. Of course 바카라사이트re has to be humanitarian aid, and it's perfectly practicable to send it. But it's up to 바카라사이트 people of Zaire to sort out 바카라사이트 conflicts. It may take ten years, but it will happen.

"Why should we in 바카라사이트 West care? On 바카라사이트 whole we don't. But if we have any sense of history and of our place in 바카라사이트 world, we should. And if it's true that British firms have been supplying arms to 바카라사이트 area, we should care a lot that we have such men in our midst."

Additional reporting by John Davies.