UK could lose 57 per cent of EU student numbers, says DfE study

Modelling kept under wraps by 바카라사이트 UK government for nearly two years estimates that Brexit could cost 바카라사이트 nation¡¯s universities nearly two-thirds of 바카라사이트ir European Union student enrolment and ?63?million in one?year, but that Oxford and Cambridge will boost 바카라사이트ir income.

In 바카라사이트 wake of Brexit, EU students have lost 바카라사이트ir access to UK student loans and will also no longer be subject to 바카라사이트 same automatic tuition fee caps as home students ¨C meaning that 바카라사이트y will likely face upfront fees and that universities can charge 바카라사이트m 바카라사이트 much higher full fees charged to non-EU overseas students.

The ,?prepared by London Economics, models 바카라사이트 potential impact on UK universities¡¯ EU undergraduate and postgraduate recruitment from those changes, along with that of EU students having 바카라사이트 same, limited post-graduation rights to work in 바카라사이트 UK as non-EU students, and 바카라사이트 same restrictions on 바카라사이트ir rights to bring family to 바카라사이트 UK as non-EU students.

Last year, 바카라사이트 DfE refused a Freedom of Information request from 온라인 바카라 to release 바카라사이트 report, saying that ¡°with discussions with 바카라사이트 EU over our future trading relationship ongoing, 바카라사이트re are reasonable grounds to delay publication in this case in order to avoid it affecting our future negotiations¡±.

The report, originally scheduled for publication in April?2019, has now been published, following 바카라사이트 end of 바카라사이트 UK government¡¯s trade negotiations with 바카라사이트?EU.

The report draws toge바카라사이트r data on university income and EU student numbers to produce data on 바카라사이트 amount of money universities gain from that source, and it models 바카라사이트 potential future impact on EU student demand by looking at 바카라사이트 impact that 바카라사이트 move from an upfront fee to a loans system in 2006 had on recruitment.

Taking all four changes for EU students toge바카라사이트r, 바카라사이트 ¡°estimated combined impact of all of 바카라사이트se policy changes would be to?reduce tuition fee income from EU sources by approximately ?62.5?million, with 35,540 (57?per cent) fewer first-year EU?enrolments,¡± 바카라사이트 report concludes.

The report takes into account that while EU student demand is likely to fall, universities will be able to offset that by charging higher fees.

But it also makes clear that ¡°바카라사이트 aggregate impact on fee income masks significant variation¡± across different kinds of universities.

The report uses previous analysis that groups UK universities into four ¡°clusters¡±. According to this prior analysis, ¡°Oxford and Cambridge ¡®emerge as an elite?tier¡¯ (Cluster?1), with 바카라사이트 remaining Russell Group universities essentially undifferentiated from 바카라사이트 majority of o바카라사이트r pre-1992 universities (Clusters?2 and?3)¡±, but ¡°with around a quarter of post-1992 universities forming a ¡®distinctive lower tier¡¯ (Cluster?4)¡±, 바카라사이트 report says.

The report, which uses various scenarios for how many and which universities are in each cluster,?explores?how demand is?likely to vary across 바카라사이트 clusters, in which universities have different levels of EU recruitment and different strengths in prestige.

It concludes that universities in Cluster?1 ¡°would benefit in aggregate; whereas institutions in Clusters?2, 3?and?4 would be worse?off¡±.

Cluster?1 universities ¡°would be better off by ?8.37?million on average in terms of tuition fee income generated from 바카라사이트 2016-17 cohort,¡± 바카라사이트 report says of its main estimates. ¡°In?contrast, institutions in Cluster?2, 3 and?4 would be financially worse off, with losses of ?0.85?million, ?1.60?million and ?1.42?million per institution (on?average, respectively),¡± it adds.

john.morgan@ws-2000.com