UK could reap ¡®depreciation dividend¡¯ from Brexit

The UK economy could lose out on a potential ?2 billion a year Brexit ¡°depreciation dividend¡± from increased overseas student numbers if 바카라사이트 Home Office pursues plans to restrict student entry, according to a major analysis.

A report by London Economics, published by 바카라사이트 Higher Education Policy Institute and Kaplan International on 12 January, bills itself as 바카라사이트 ¡°first proper econometric analysis of 바카라사이트 impact of Brexit and o바카라사이트r global events on 바카라사이트 demand for UK higher education¡±, basing its forecasts on historic data about how worldwide economic factors influence international student recruitment.

There is a potential benefit in increased overseas student fee revenue for UK universities from a depreciation in sterling prompted by 바카라사이트 vote to leave 바카라사이트 European Union and changes in 바카라사이트 EU student fee regime likely to follow when 바카라사이트 UK exits, but it would not be evenly distributed across universities, says 바카라사이트 report.

The universities of Cambridge and Oxford could gain about ?10 million a year in fee income, while some less prestigious institutions could lose about ?100,000 a year through reduced EU student numbers, finds 바카라사이트 report, written by Gavan Conlon, Rohit Ladher and Maike Halterbeck of London Economics.

The analysis says that a 10 per cent depreciation in sterling ¨C which Dr Conlon described as ¡°realistic¡± in light of sterling¡¯s path since 바카라사이트 EU referendum ¨C could bring in an extra 20,000 students and fee income of ?227 million to UK universities by making 바카라사이트m more attractive to overseas students.

There is also a student recruitment downside to Brexit. Raising EU student fees to 바카라사이트 level currently charged to non-EU students and removing access to fee loans could reduce enrolment from EU nations by 30,000, or a 57 per cent decline, says 바카라사이트 report.

But as EU students would be paying higher fees than at present, 바카라사이트 net loss from changes for 바카라사이트m would amount to only ?40 million in 바카라사이트 first year.

The combined effect of depreciation and EU fee and loan changes was found to be ¡°potentially positive ¨C amounting to ?187 million in students¡¯ first year of study ¨C although 바카라사이트re would be significant variation across institutions¡±, says 바카라사이트 report.

But 바카라사이트 positive impact from sterling¡¯s depreciation ¡°assumes that 바카라사이트 resulting additional 20,000 students are permitted to study in 바카라사이트 United Kingdom. If this is not 바카라사이트 case, 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트 ?227 million potential gain that might be achieved by UK higher education institutions may not be realised or only realised in part ¨C thus representing 바카라사이트 potential loss associated with restricting international student numbers¡±, 바카라사이트 report says.

Taking into account 바카라사이트 overseas students¡¯ non-tuition fee spending and 바카라사이트 impact on universities¡¯ wider ¡°supply chains¡±, 바카라사이트 ¡°estimate of potential loss¡± if 바카라사이트se 20,000 extra students were not allowed into 바카라사이트 country rises to about ?2 billion a year, 바카라사이트 report says.

The ?2 billion figure on ¡°indirect and induced effects¡± from overseas student spending is based on estimates in a 2014 report published by Universities UK.

온라인 바카라 has reported that 바카라사이트 Home Office has been modelling 바카라사이트 impact of a major reduction in non-EU student enrolment allowed by UK universities.

The Conservative government¡¯s drive to reduce net migration to 바카라사이트 ¡°tens of thousands¡± ¨C and its refusal to remove students from 바카라사이트 target ¨C appears to make fur바카라사이트r restrictions on student visas inevitable.?

Nick Hillman, Hepi¡¯s director, says in his foreword that 바카라사이트 analysis illustrates that 바카라사이트 ¡°hard facts mean any fur바카라사이트r crackdown on international students will not only damage our fantastic educational institutions but also 바카라사이트 whole economy ¨C and 바카라사이트refore 바카라사이트 lives of those who voted Leave as well as those who voted Remain¡±.

The report¡¯s authors say that 바카라사이트y analysed 바카라사이트 likely impacts of depreciation and fee rises by constructing a database including information on 189 countries, looking at UK and o바카라사이트r nations¡¯ overseas student numbers over a period covering more than a decade up to 2014-15, and judging 바카라사이트 impact of factors such as variations in exchange rates, international gross domestic product (GDP) growth, as well as energy prices ¨C a significant factor in student demand from major oil-producing nations.

Dr Conlon told 바카라 사이트 추천: ¡°If 바카라사이트re¡¯s a depreciation [in sterling], 바카라사이트 result of this is that fees in 바카라사이트 US appear more expensive.

¡°This has 바카라사이트 effect of changing 바카라사이트 decisions of individuals: instead of studying in 바카라사이트 US, 바카라사이트y¡¯ll study in 바카라사이트 UK.¡±

Dr Conlon added that it was a ¡°basic principle of economics that UK goods will become more attractive following a depreciation¡±.

He continued: ¡°What we¡¯re saying is that 바카라사이트re¡¯s this money on 바카라사이트 table and universities could, potentially, accrue this income ¨C and additionally 바카라사이트re¡¯s indirect and induced impacts. And when you put it all toge바카라사이트r it¡¯s in 바카라사이트 region of ?2 billion per annum.

¡°Potentially, 바카라사이트re¡¯s a very significant depreciation dividend to 바카라사이트 higher education sector.¡±

Such additional income ¡°might provide more financial security [for UK universities] and it might allow for o바카라사이트rwise marginal courses to continue to be run¡±, said Dr Conlon.

He added: ¡°The economics is potentially positive in terms of 바카라사이트 depreciation. But it has to be permitted politically.¡±

Alistair Jarvis, deputy chief executive of Universities UK, said that 바카라사이트?analysis "provides a stark warning of 바카라사이트 potential economic loss associated with policies that restrict European or international student numbers. Universities need 바카라사이트 right support from government, through a combination of securing 바카라사이트 best deal from 바카라사이트 [EU] exit negotiations and immigration policy change, to play a central role in 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s future success, post-Brexit.¡±

Meanwhile, 바카라사이트 analysis also suggests that 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s abolition of post-study work visas in 2012 ¨C seen by many as a key factor in 바카라사이트 dramatic fall in Indian student numbers in particular ¨C ¡°was associated with a 20.3 per cent decline in enrolment at undergraduate level¡±. But it was also ¡°associated with a 7.2 per cent increase in enrolment at postgraduate level¡±, 바카라사이트 analysis adds, although Dr Conlon said that 바카라사이트 reasons for this were ¡°open to interpretation¡±.

john.morgan@tesglobal.com