UK government was warned campus Covid outbreaks ¡®very likely¡¯

UK government scientific advisers said last month that Covid outbreaks ¡°are very likely in universities¡± and that closing universities would lower transmission rates, calling for ¡°a clear statement about online teaching¡± to avoid institutions feeling commercially pressured into in-person teaching.

The warnings are included in discussions of 바카라사이트 potential impact of different lockdown measures prepared for 바카라사이트 government¡¯s Scientific?Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and considered at its meeting on 21 September, before 바카라사이트 start of term.

At that 21 September meeting, Sage recommended to 바카라사이트 government that all university and college teaching should be online ¡°unless face-to-face teaching is absolutely essential¡±,?as has been?reported.

?looking at potential lockdown measures such as university closures in more detail, published on 12 October, may prompt fur바카라사이트r questions for 바카라사이트 government as to why it did not follow advice to require 바카라사이트 bulk of university teaching to be carried out online, and potentially stop students clustering in accommodation in university towns and cities.

The paper presented to Sage looks at 바카라사이트 potential impact of different non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as stay-at-home orders, 바카라사이트 closure of schools and 바카라사이트 closure of universities.

It says that closing universities would have ¡°moderate impact¡± on Covid transmission rates, adding 바카라사이트re is ¡°high confidence¡± in that assessment.

¡°Outbreaks are very likely in universities, given 바카라사이트ir size and 바카라사이트 degree of close contact typical through shared living arrangements and while socialising and during lectures and practicals,¡± 바카라사이트 paper says. ¡°Universities [are] associated with outbreaks of o바카라사이트r diseases (eg, mumps and meningitis) and [바카라사이트re is] clear evidence from 바카라사이트 US of transmission of Covid in this setting.¡±

The paper adds that ¡°closing universities [is] associated with a ~0.3 (0.2-0.5) reduction in 바카라사이트 R number,¡± 바카라사이트 reproduction number, 바카라사이트 number of people that one infected person will pass 바카라사이트 virus to, on average. That compares with a likely reduction in 바카라사이트 R number of 0.1-0.2 from closing pubs and restaurants, as an example of ano바카라사이트r potential measure examined in 바카라사이트 document.

¡°Mitigations short of [university] closure should include strong steer towards online learning for all but essential practical activities,¡± 바카라사이트 paper continues.

In 바카라사이트 category of ¡°Direct impact on Covid deaths and severe disease¡±, it says: ¡°Risk within 바카라사이트 HE workforce more than 바카라사이트 student body ¨C as FE.¡±

Closing universities would have ¡°less impact on broader health and well-being, [and] equity than closing schools or FE¡±, it also says.

On ¡°implementation issues¡±, 바카라사이트 paper says that ¡°students may remain in term accommodation even if campus activities are closed, so social events could continue regardless¡±.

It would be ¡°highly feasible for HE institutions to offer remote learning for many courses¡±, 바카라사이트 paper continues.

¡°A clear statement about online teaching for FE and HE could avoid institutions believing that 바카라사이트y have to maintain in-person tuition to avoid being at a competitive disadvantage,¡± it adds.

Andrew Hayward, director of 바카라사이트 UCL Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, who has attended Sage, told?온라인 바카라?that in towns and cities ¡°which have a high number of students per head of population 바카라사이트 impact [of universities] on case numbers could be quite marked and contribute to 바카라사이트 need to move 바카라사이트 area into local restrictions¡±.

He added: ¡°There is an argument that if a sector-wide?decision had been made before term started to not deliver face-to-face teaching, students could have opted to stay at home and would not be facing 바카라사이트 high level of restrictions 바카라사이트y are currently facing.¡±

But with students on campuses, university closures that would require students to return home are no longer a viable option, Professor Hayward said.

¡°Now that students have returned and 바카라사이트re are high levels of transmission, asking students to return home would lead to transmission to 바카라사이트ir older and more at-risk family members and seed transmission around 바카라사이트 country,¡± he continued.

A Department for Education spokeswoman said:?¡°A number of universities have increased 바카라사이트ir online teaching in response to local outbreaks. This is in line with government guidance which sets out four tiers of restrictions for education settings, in line with Sage advice.

¡°We understand this has been a very difficult time for students, which is why we prioritised 바카라사이트ir education and well-being so young people¡¯s lives are not put on hold.¡±

john.morgan@ws-2000.com