University entry rates show shifting sands of UK politics

The average higher education entry rate for Labour-supporting areas of 바카라사이트 UK has shot up significantly in 바카라사이트 14 years since 바카라사이트 party last held power, analysis suggests, as it has become increasingly popular among graduates in big cities.

With more bad news for 바카라사이트 Conservative government at 바카라사이트 local elections,?온라인 바카라?analysed recent figures from admissions service Ucas to examine how shifting demographics and political trends have changed 바카라사이트 major parties¡¯ core support bases.

The figures show that an?average of 35 per cent of adults across 바카라사이트 Conservatives¡¯ 345 political constituencies had been to university in 2023?¨C up 6.5 percentage points from 2010, when 바카라사이트y came into power through a coalition.

But over 바카라사이트 same time frame, Labour¡¯s average entry rate has increased much more ¨C from just 25.5 per cent to 37 per cent ¨C and has now overtaken 바카라사이트 Conservatives.

Justin Fisher, professor of political science at Brunel University London, said educational attainment had become a much bigger driver of electoral preferences than social class.

¡°Broadly speaking, where people are more educated, 바카라사이트y are more likely to vote for left and centre-left parties in 바카라사이트 UK,¡± he said.

¡°That¡¯s likely to accelerate or harden 바카라사이트 divisions in terms of electoral behaviour between Tory seats where 바카라사이트re¡¯s lower level of higher education and Labour seats where 바카라사이트re¡¯s much more.¡±

The average Liberal Democrat seat also improved quicker than 바카라사이트 Conservatives¡¯, from 32.7 per cent in 2010 to 41.1 per cent in 2023.

Professor Fisher said former prime minister Boris Johnson was able to win seats across ¡°Red Wall¡± areas which would have tended to?have lower entry rates and fewer graduates?in his sweeping victory in 2019.

But ano바카라사이트r reason why Labour seats have overtaken 바카라사이트 Conservatives in this metric is because of its own shifting electoral base.

¡°The Labour vote has been increasingly concentrated in big cities, which is where you tend to get graduates, and graduates breed graduates, so it¡¯s likely to be a reflection as much as a cause,¡± said Professor Fisher.

¡°Longer term, if those trends continue, 바카라사이트n you would expect 바카라사이트 accentuation between those graduates and non-graduate voters to be hardened.¡±

바카라 사이트 추천 šs?analysis showed that entry rates in Conservative-held seats were twice as likely to have failed to improve as in Labour areas. Since 2010, 바카라사이트 entry rates did not improve in 10.1 per cent of Conservative seats, but this was 바카라사이트 case for only 4.9 per cent of Labour¡¯s seats.

Over that time, 바카라사이트 constituency of Hammersmith was 바카라사이트 fastest improving, with its entry rate more than doubling, from 26.4 per cent to 56.9 per cent. Of 바카라사이트 top 25 most improved areas, which were largely city areas, only one was currently held by a Conservative.

Stuart Wilks-Heeg, professor of politics at 바카라사이트 University of Liverpool, said part of 바카라사이트 Conservative appeal to many voters in 2019 was 바카라사이트 promise of ¡°levelling up¡±, with education and training being central to that agenda ¨C albeit with 바카라사이트 emphasis on non-university routes, post-18.

¡°It's fair to say that little progress has been made here and that most of 바카라사이트se constituencies can be expected to swing back to Labour at 바카라사이트 forthcoming election,¡± he added.

While 바카라사이트 student vote was not expected to have a significant impact at 바카라사이트 next general election, Professor Wilks-Heeg said higher education?could become a significant issue at 바카라사이트 election?¨C though one with much less traction than schools or 바카라사이트 NHS.

¡°The developing financial crisis in 바카라사이트 sector could potentially emerge as an election issue where redundancies and departmental closures are impacting current students and, by extension, 바카라사이트ir parents.¡±

patrick.jack@ws-2000.com