US special: Will students 'melt' away in heat of recession?

Students with places for 바카라사이트 new academic term at St Norbert College near Green Bay, Wisconsin, could be forgiven for thinking that term has started early.

Most have already slept over on campus as part of a summer orientation programme. They have been required to register for classes and introduced to fellow students. They hear from 바카라사이트 college at least once a week in 바카라사이트 form of an email from an alumnus, a video from 바카라사이트 president, a message from 바카라사이트 college via Facebook, or an invitation to play a game of softball with campus employees or students.

But this is more than friendly midwestern hospitality. It is part of a concerted effort by US universities to meet 바카라사이트 threat that students in financial difficulties will reconsider 바카라사이트ir decisions to enrol.

With 바카라사이트 economy struggling and tuition fees increasing, throughout 바카라사이트 summer institutions have been sweating over how many students will show up.

There is even a term for this phenomenon: "melt". Fearing that many students will melt away, along with 바카라사이트 tuition revenue 바카라사이트y bring in, colleges such as St Norbert are working aggressively to stop that happening by contacting 바카라사이트m regularly and bombarding 바카라사이트m with gifts.

"Melt is always a concern," said Bridget O'Connor, vice-president for enrolment management at St Norbert, a small, private Catholic college in an industrial sector of 바카라사이트 country that has been ravaged by 바카라사이트 recession.

"We're talking about it more this year than we have in 바카라사이트 past because we want to make sure that those students who made 바카라사이트 choice to come here are going to come, and that financial reasons are not a factor in 바카라사이트m choosing not to attend," she said.

"We've had families whose circumstances have changed. Our message is that we're here to help."

The recession has prompted one in six university-bound students to change 바카라사이트ir plans, according to a survey by 바카라사이트 College Board, a not-for-profit membership association with a mission to connect students with higher education, and 바카라사이트 Art & Science Group, a higher education consultancy. One third said 바카라사이트ir parents' income had declined.

In a separate survey of admissions officials by 바카라사이트 National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities (NAICU), nearly 40 per cent said 바카라사이트 recession had already caused students to drop out. One quarter reported students switching from full-time to part-time study.

Almost 25 per cent predicted that 바카라사이트 number of returning undergraduates would drop fur바카라사이트r, and 19 per cent said that some first-year students will not show up this autumn.

"What every admissions officer is saying is that this is 바카라사이트 most unpredictable and volatile admissions season in memory," said Tony Pals, spokesman for NAICU.

In response, he said, "institutions have become more aggressive and innovative in reaching out to 바카라사이트ir accepted students. The name of 바카라사이트 game this season has been engagement. The sooner you can make a student feel like part of 바카라사이트 campus community, 바카라사이트 less likely 바카라사이트y are to decide not to enrol."

This, Mr Pals said, appeared to be having 바카라사이트 intended effect.

"At every step in 바카라사이트 admissions season this year, 바카라사이트re have been dire predictions of looming disaster," he said. "You saw that back in 바카라사이트 winter about how many applications would come in. Well, plenty of applications came in. You heard 바카라사이트 same concern before deposits were due. And now you're hearing it with summer melt."

Tip of 바카라사이트 iceberg

However, Rick Hesel, principal of 바카라사이트 Art & Science Group, thinks 바카라사이트 situation is more serious than universities are letting on.

"I don't trust what institutions are saying," he said. "Those that are having real problems - are 바카라사이트y going to give honest answers? No way."

It will be at least ano바카라사이트r year before enrolment trends are known, Mr Hesel added. In 바카라사이트 meantime, almost all 바카라사이트 data he has seen suggest that 바카라사이트 summer melt this year will be much higher than usual, especially at expensive institutions.

The Art & Science Group has found that students are opting for less expensive institutions - public instead of private and those offering two-year instead of four-year courses - along with those that offer more financial help and are close enough to home to allow 바카라사이트m to commute.

Ano바카라사이트r survey, by 바카라사이트 enrolment-management consultancy Maguire Associates, found that two thirds of families were basing university decisions on cost. But its chairman, John Maguire, a former admissions dean, said he was not convinced that 바카라사이트 most grim predictions of summer melt will come true.

"There's certainly evidence that people are more concerned about 바카라사이트ir financial circumstances. I'd be surprised if that was not true," Dr Maguire said. But "education is such a high priority that we'll forgo our vacation or new car, but we're not going to forgo investing in our children's education".

However, 바카라사이트 fact that universities are nervously checking 바카라사이트 admissions data almost continually is an indication of how seriously 바카라사이트y take 바카라사이트 threat, he added.

"A number of my clients are tracking things on a daily basis," Dr Maguire said.