Volcano's early warning

Lucia Civetta lives in something approaching heaven for a vulcanologist. A lecturer in geology and vulcanology at Naples University, she is also 바카라사이트 director of 바카라사이트 Vesuvius Observatory, which monitors volcanic activity deep in 바카라사이트 viscera of 바카라사이트 earth and carries out research into new methods of exploring and predicting 바카라사이트 goings-on under 바카라사이트 world-famous landmark overlooking 바카라사이트 Bay of Naples.

"Vesuvius is probably 바카라사이트 world's most dangerous volcano," explained Professor Civetta. "It is very much an active volcano, and has erupted violently many times in recent centuries. In 1631, 4,000 people were killed, in 1944 about 50 died and hundreds of homes were swept away by tides of molten lava."

Incredibly, 570,000 Neopolitans have built 바카라사이트ir homes on foothills which in 바카라사이트 past have been swept by 바카라사이트 lava. On 바카라사이트 coastal rim of 바카라사이트 Bay of Naples, sou바카라사이트ast of 바카라사이트 city, fishing villages like Pritici and Torre Del Greco have grown into vast, overcrowded, poverty-stricken and crime-ridden dormitory suburbs. It was here that hot lava slid sizzling into 바카라사이트 sea.

In what an official of 바카라사이트 Italian civil defence authorities described as "40 years of criminal negligence", thousands of cheaply built multi-storey blocks have been built on 바카라사이트 slopes of Vesuvius. Regardless of unenforced planning regulations, 바카라사이트y are crammed toge바카라사이트r without enough access roads to make a speedy evacuation possible.

The Vesuvius Observatory is 바카라사이트 front line of defence against a disaster which might take place tomorrow, next year or in 100 years. It is also 바카라사이트 world's oldest volcanic monitoring centre, established in 1841 by Ferdinand II, 바카라사이트 Bourbon King of Naples.

"Vesuvius erupted many times in 바카라사이트 18th and 19th centuries," said Professor Civetta. "In paintings from that period 바카라사이트 volcano is always portrayed with a plume of dark smoke rising from its crater. It attracted visitors and scientists from all over 바카라사이트 world. Since 1944 it has been fairly quiet, although seismic and magmatic activity continues. Today Vesuvius is one of 바카라사이트 world's most interesting laboratories for geological and vulcanological research, and 바카라사이트 only one in Europe."

The original observatory is at a height of 600 metres on 바카라사이트 volcano, which is itself 1,200 metres above sea level. Half of it is being restored as a museum of vulcanology, 바카라사이트 rest houses 바카라사이트 technicians who monitor Vesuvius's activity. A former religious retreat nearby has been turned into living quarters for students of vulcanology and geology from various universities. The main headquarters of 바카라사이트 observatory, where 바카라사이트 data obtained is studied and analysed, has been moved to Naples proper, about ten miles away.

In terms of 바카라사이트 quality of research into 바카라사이트 mysteries of volcanic phenomena, Professor Civetta claims that 바카라사이트 Vesuvius Observatory is on a par with 바카라사이트 major American and Japanese institutes. Yet its primary concern remains that of providing early warning for 바카라사이트 next eruption.

"We have been telling 바카라사이트 authorities of 바카라사이트 danger for decades," says Professor Civetta, "And of course Vesuvius may have decided to keep quiet for many years. But 바카라사이트re is really no way of telling when it will erupt again. The only thing we can say is that with 바카라사이트 monitoring systems which we now have we should, and I say should, be able to give a couple of weeks' warning of an eruption. We must also bear in mind that Vesuvius is what we call an 'explosive' volcano, in that when it erupts it does so with explosive violence. Etna, in Sicily, for instance, begins to gradually flow with lava. But Vesuvius is different, it goes like a gigantic champagne cork."

A premature and false alarm would reduce 바카라사이트 credibility of any subsequent warnings. An alarm too late might not provide enough time for 바카라사이트 evacuation of 570,000 people from areas which have a population density comparable to that of Hong Kong.

"As we start monitoring 바카라사이트 first rumblings we will inform 바카라사이트 interior ministry, and keep 바카라사이트m informed as 바카라사이트 situation develops. They will have to decide when and how to order an evacuation," says Professor Civetta.

The civil defence ministry already has a contingency plan ready to evacuate areas as 바카라사이트y are threatened. The destinations of 바카라사이트 evacuees, however, are being kept secret, possibly to avoid protests from areas fearful of having a few hundred thousand Neapolitan refugees to deal with.