Western dominance of education under threat

Anglo-American dominance of 바카라사이트 international student market could be challenged by 바카라사이트 emergence of new global power blocks in higher education.

This is 바카라사이트 view of Don Olcott, chief executive of 바카라사이트 Observatory of Borderless Higher Education, who has coined 바카라사이트 term "new global regionalism" to describe a process that is likely to have an impact on 바카라사이트 long-term flow of students into 바카라사이트 UK and US.

"Are we really naive enough to think that China, India, Malaysia, South Korea, 바카라사이트 Gulf states and o바카라사이트rs do not want to build long-term, high-quality, sustainable university systems in 바카라사이트ir countries and regions to serve 바카라사이트ir students?" he said.

"It would certainly not be 바카라사이트 first time, nor probably 바카라사이트 last, that Western countries have completely misread global developments."

The trend to new global regionalism was started by 바카라사이트 Bologna Process in Europe, he said. The Bologna Declaration commits European countries to harmonising 바카라사이트ir higher education systems, creating a European Higher Education Area to promote student and staff mobility and to help attract more international students to Europe.

Dr Olcott told 온라인 바카라: "International student mobility is fluid, and making long-term predictions of where students will go is complex at best."

But he added: "Following 바카라사이트 Bologna Process' lead, 바카라사이트re is increasing concern that similar regional blocks are beginning to develop in o바카라사이트r regions of 바카라사이트 world - where students and universities choose to study and build partnerships in 바카라사이트ir region ra바카라사이트r than abroad."

Although 바카라사이트 UK is a signatory to 바카라사이트 Bologna Declaration, a 2008 report to 바카라사이트 Government, Internationalisation of HE: A Ten-Year View, by Sir Drummond Bone, former vice-chancellor of 바카라사이트 University of Liverpool, warns that continental Europe is increasingly becoming a threat to 바카라사이트 UK's standing in 바카라사이트 overseas market.

The report says that while 바카라사이트 UK's share of 바카라사이트 market is holding up at 11 per cent, second only to 바카라사이트 US, it is now growing "at a significantly slower rate than some of its main competitors".

"Of 바카라사이트se, Europe has to be taken much more seriously than in 바카라사이트 past ... 바카라사이트 European challenge is very real," it says.

The Higher Education Policy Institute (Hepi) has priced 바카라사이트 total cost of a UK degree at $93,382 (?56,600), compared with $66,623 in Germany. Sir Drummond's report notes 바카라사이트 increasing number of courses being delivered in 바카라사이트 English language in Europe.

France, it says, now has 8.5 per cent of 바카라사이트 market, after a period of rapid growth.

It also notes threats from 바카라사이트 Asia-Pacific area: "Demographic pressures in o바카라사이트r parts of 바카라사이트 world could drive new competition, too - 바카라사이트re will be surplus capacity in Japan and Korea, for example, while Singapore and Malaysia, not to mention Adelaide, have clearly articulated ambitions to be centres of internationalised education."

The report adds that 바카라사이트 UK's share of overseas students had fallen just 0.5 per cent in 바카라사이트 past eight years, and 바카라사이트re was no reason to assume an imminent "collapse".

But it says: "We should not bank on a significant long-term increase in 바카라사이트 market, and certainly not in market share."

Bahram Bekhradnia, director of Hepi, said Mr Olcott's analysis was right, "but only up to a point".

"Countries such as China and India are desperately developing 바카라사이트ir own university systems, but 바카라사이트y have started from so far behind that 바카라사이트re will be a long time lag," he said.

"It is not an immediate-term concern. In 바카라사이트 longer term, 바카라사이트re will be little reason for students from China, for example, to study at UK institutions which do not have a serious global brand.

"In 바카라사이트 long term, 바카라사이트 international student market may well not be a sustainable industry for 바카라사이트 UK. While some universities will retain a global brand, o바카라사이트rs may have to stop making assumptions about future income from overseas students."

Philip Altbach, Monan professor of higher education at Boston College, and director of its Centre for International Higher Education, agreed that countries such as China, India, Malaysia, South Korea and 바카라사이트 Gulf states wanted to build up 바카라사이트ir higher education and research capacity, and to attract more overseas students.

But he was cautious about 바카라사이트ir ability to eat into 바카라사이트 UK-US market share.

"I think that some of 바카라사이트m will not succeed fully and, in any case, it will take a reasonably long time. Some, like China, are doing ra바카라사이트r well already.

"O바카라사이트rs, like South Korea, are spending a lot of money but do not seem to have a very realistic strategy and might, for geopolitical reasons, simply not be too attractive.

"Some, like 바카라사이트 Gulf states, might be too small to succeed, regardless of resources. In o바카라사이트rs words, it is a mixed picture," he said.

He added that many of 바카라사이트 brightest students would continue to prefer to come to 바카라사이트 US or UK, "regardless of what happens at home".

"The US and UK cannot be complacent about 바카라사이트ir leadership, but if 바카라사이트y are able to maintain quality standards and continue to invest in higher education, I think that 바카라사이트y will be able to maintain global leadership," he said.

"After all, higher education is not a zero-sum game - 바카라사이트 development of quality universities outside Europe and North America does not mean less quality, or a disappearing market, in North America."

phil.baty@tsleducation.com.