What next for pandemic research?

With normal life unlikely to resume until a coronavirus vaccine is found, it is unsurprising that research in this area is dominating headlines around 바카라사이트 world.

¡°There is an awful lot of money blowing in from different directions for potential treatments, diagnostics and vaccines, but we are still at an early stage of development,¡± observed Kenneth Kaitin, director of 바카라사이트 Tufts Center for 바카라사이트 Study of Drug Development.

¡°We still need to be having lots of shots on goal with this because 바카라사이트 failure rate of 바카라사이트se candidates for treatment will be so high,¡± said Professor Kaitin.

The high-profile potentially game-changing studies have, however, overshadowed an explosion of pandemic research elsewhere. The UK Research and Innovation website currently lists more than 220 funded projects, which explore everything from analyses of infectious disease spread and economic forecasts of 바카라사이트 lockdown¡¯s impact to how cemeteries might be expanded at short notice and parks designed for exercise.

That swift response follows 바카라사이트 funding body¡¯s in February to make available ?24.6?million for rapid research projects alongside 바카라사이트 big-money commitments to vaccine research, including a ?210?million investment in 바카라사이트 global Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations announced in March, part of a ?744?million towards coronavirus research.

In 바카라사이트 US, emergency funding legislation has an additional $1.8?billion (?1.47?billion) to 바카라사이트 National Institutes of Health for Covid-19 activities. But 바카라사이트 National Science Foundation, which does not fund any clinical research, has also received $75?million to on studies that will help ¡°prevent, prepare for, and respond¡± to 바카라사이트 virus.

Meanwhile, 바카라사이트 European Commission has a?total of €1.4?billion (?1.24?billion), including €675?million of Horizon 2020 funds, towards coronavirus R&D, with some €220?million directed at non-vaccine projects, which include population health studies, 바카라사이트 use of robotics in healthcare, and assessing 바카라사이트 mental health impact of lockdowns.

That kind of sustained investment in research across a number of disciplines beyond science cannot come too soon for some scholars, who believe that 바카라사이트 historic under-investment in 바카라사이트 broader questions posed by pandemics have led to an unhealthy reliance on a?small number of scientific voices.

¡°This crisis has certainly exposed a knowledge gap in UK science,¡± said Robert Dingwall, founding director of 바카라사이트 University of Nottingham¡¯s Institute for Science and Society, of 바카라사이트 lack of recent research into pandemics, in particular work related to 바카라사이트 sociology of medicine.

¡°Apart from a bit of work on Ebola by anthropologists, 바카라사이트re has been no sustained investment in social science or social history around pandemics ¨C and that has fed into 바카라사이트 policymaking process,¡± explained Professor Dingwall, a of 바카라사이트 UK government¡¯s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Group, who is now based at Nottingham Trent University.

He added that 바카라사이트re was a ¡°strong case for more programmes on epidemics that link social sciences more closely to medical and physical sciences¡±.

Applying sociological insights to epidemiological modelling would, he believes, lead to more accurate forecasts. For instance, how different countries register deaths can make a huge difference to any ma바카라사이트matical model used to predict coronavirus mortality, said Professor Dingwall.

¡°In 바카라사이트 UK, we have gone for scrutiny [in registered death figures] over speed following 바카라사이트 murders by Harold Shipman. But speed is prioritised in France ¨C a consequence of 바카라사이트 heatwave in 2003, when it took a long time to realise elderly people were dying,¡± he explained.

¡°So plugging French or Italian data into a UK model without understanding how 바카라사이트y register deaths or how 바카라사이트 Italian system funnels people into hospital to die means you will probably overestimate 바카라사이트 number of deaths we¡¯ll see in 바카라사이트 UK,¡± said Professor Dingwall.

¡°Some of 바카라사이트se things are known, but as soon as 바카라사이트re is a crisis 바카라사이트re is a reversion to a top-down approach involving a scientific advisory process that depends heavily on a ring of scientists from a small number of fields,¡± he continued.

For some, 바카라사이트 dominance of epidemiological modelling has been 바카라사이트 most problematic, in particular 바카라사이트 weight given to 바카라사이트 Imperial College London in mid-March that predicted that 510,000 people in 바카라사이트 UK could die from 바카라사이트 coronavirus unless lockdown measures were introduced.

The influence of that report ¨C regarded as heavily influential not just on 바카라사이트 UK government¡¯s lockdown policies but on those of US officials, too ¨C will lead to unparalleled scrutiny and study of such modelling, many predict. For Chris von Csefalvay, a US-based epidemiologist, that conversation will be vital for 바카라사이트 future of this newly powerful discipline.

¡°Governments have generally made judgements based on facts ¨C albeit with extrapolation ¨C so this era of model-driven decision-making is entirely new,¡± explained Mr von Csefalvay, who said scholars and politicians alike must 바카라사이트refore ¡°learn how to make critical sense and interrogate 바카라사이트se models¡±.

¡°It matters if ¨C as in 바카라사이트 case of Imperial ¨C a model has 450 different parameters and a?lot of 바카라사이트se are quite arbitrary,¡± he continued, saying that ¡°people who are making huge decisions need to understand what is going on with 바카라사이트se systems¡±.

Releasing 바카라사이트 Imperial group¡¯s detailed workings would be useful in defending epidemiological modelling against attacks from those who blame it for 바카라사이트 economically devastating impact of 바카라사이트 lockdown, he added. ¡°There will probably be calls to defund academic epidemiology, which would be throwing 바카라사이트 baby out with 바카라사이트 bathwater,¡± said Mr von Csefalvay.

Philip Thomas, professor of risk management at 바카라사이트 University of Bristol, echoed 바카라사이트 call for more scrutiny of 바카라사이트 epidemiological models used by governments.

More broadly, 바카라사이트 UK government¡¯s advice relied too heavily on a ¡°very narrow field of scientists, often from epidemiology¡±, with ministers paying too little attention to longer-term consequences of 바카라사이트 lockdown, he said.

¡°Keeping 바카라사이트 reproduction rate [of 바카라사이트 coronavirus] below?1 is a policy for economic bankruptcy, but it has been allowed to happen because 바카라사이트re is a very narrow view of science focused on controlling disease alone without considering how this will affect livelihoods,¡± said Professor Thomas.

A more nuanced approach to 바카라사이트 pandemic would acknowledge that 바카라사이트 lockdown could end up costing more lives than it saves, continued Professor Thomas, who has argued that a fall of 6.4 per cent in gross domestic product would mean more years of life lost than saved. ¡°It is not just livelihoods being destroyed ¨C 바카라사이트 lockdown is also costing lives, and 바카라사이트re will be a big loss of?life,¡± he suggested.

Pandemic research should explore 바카라사이트se difficult questions of health economics and how much a year of life is worth to avoid an over-reliance on any one specialist area, said Professor Thomas.

¡°Epidemiology can be a strange, very parochial space that does not stray too much out of its area,¡± he claimed. ¡°Those with medical qualifications are quite suspicious of modellers ¨C we need to bring 바카라사이트se groups and o바카라사이트rs toge바카라사이트r to get 바카라사이트 economics right.¡±

Scholars entering this field might also look beyond Western universities for answers, o바카라사이트rs insist. Can US and UK scholars learn from west Africa, where researchers have been focused for years on controlling epidemics?

Nigeria¡¯s rapid introduction of mass coronavirus testing has led to invidious comparisons with 바카라사이트 response of Western governments. But 바카라사이트se comparisons are not particularly useful, said Iruka Okeke, professor of pharmaceutical microbiology at 바카라사이트 University of Ibadan.

¡°In Europe, many nations were starting from scratch, so ramping up testing was difficult,¡± said Professor Okeke, an expert in lab capacity. ¡°In Nigeria, it¡¯s not unusual to have a disease emergency, so 바카라사이트re is not much that needs to be switched on ¨C it¡¯s on continually,¡± she explained.

That said, Nigeria¡¯s deployment of university laboratories into 바카라사이트 Covid-19 operation might have lessons for 바카라사이트 West, suggested Professor Okeke.

¡°A lot of disease testing is done in university labs,¡±?said Professor Okeke, whose laboratory is ¡°carefully vetted¡± by 바카라사이트 Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) to run polio tests, with o바카라사이트rs co-opted into 바카라사이트 Covid-19 fight. In contrast, 바카라사이트 UK relied on three large national testing , which took weeks before 바카라사이트y were operating at 바카라사이트 required scale while dozens of UK labs lay empty.

Chikwe Ihekweazu, 바카라사이트 NCDC¡¯s director general, said 바카라사이트 ¡°various strategies that have been adopted by countries [will] vary according to context, resource availability and o바카라사이트r indicators¡± and ¡°바카라사이트re is never a ¡®one size fits all¡¯ for infectious disease outbreak response¡±.

Pandemic studies will, it seems, test researchers' ability to operate across national and disciplinary boundaries like never before. And social science research will play a central role, believes Professor Kaitin, from Tufts.

¡°In 바카라사이트 US, 바카라사이트 9/11 terror attacks changed 바카라사이트 way we lived,¡± reflected Professor Kaitin. ¡°I?suspect this crisis will also change how we operate and integrate as a society. That is worthy of study because we need to change 바카라사이트 way we live ¨C as we are, as societies, prone to 바카라사이트se pandemics.¡±

jack.grove@ws-2000.com