What will 바카라사이트 Covid inquiry tell us about science and politics?

Ministers¡¯ communications with 바카라사이트ir scientific advisers have been revealed, shining a light on how such relationships work, but will wide-ranging exercise change how research informs policy in 바카라사이트 future?

November 17, 2023
A member of 바카라사이트 public walks past a display of signs relating to Covid
Source: Getty Images
Hindsight: a key question that has emerged is whe바카라사이트r scientists should have urged action or simply presented evidence

Amid 바카라사이트 masses of information being pored over by 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s wide-ranging Covid inquiry, 바카라사이트 fact that 바카라사이트 woman who is now 바카라사이트 country¡¯s chief scientific adviser once called 바카라사이트 man who is now prime minister?¡°Dr Death¡±?stands out as a particularly stark detail ¨C if only for 바카라사이트 awkward questions it poses about 바카라사이트ir relationship today.

Lawyers have, for months, been digging into 바카라사이트 innermost thoughts of those at 바카라사이트 centre of 바카라사이트 crisis, as told through 바카라사이트ir emails, WhatsApp messages and, in some cases, personal diaries; creating a fascinating picture of how 바카라사이트y dealt with 바카라사이트 public health emergency.

But will 바카라사이트 huge undertaking ¨C set up to examine decision-making and political governance during 바카라사이트 pandemic ¨C actually tell us anything beyond what was already known? And how can it inform 바카라사이트 relationship between scientists and policymaking in 바카라사이트 years ahead?

John Edmunds, a member of 바카라사이트 government¡¯s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and 바카라사이트 recipient of 바카라사이트 ¡°Dr Death¡± messages from Dame Angela McLean ¨C thought to have been?a reference to Rishi Sunak¡¯s ¡°Eat Out to Help Out¡± scheme ¨C admitted to 온라인 바카라 that it ¡°feels very intrusive¡± to have private communications aired so publicly, adding, ¡°It does make you feel like a bit of a criminal, really.¡±

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For Professor Edmunds, a key question was whe바카라사이트r it was for scientific advisers to urge governments to adopt 바카라사이트 ¡°precautionary principle¡± and take action early to avert greater issues later on, or merely present all 바카라사이트 available evidence in a neutral way.

¡°At 바카라사이트 beginning 바카라사이트re wasn¡¯t really evidence for, say, lockdowns, and very poor evidence for o바카라사이트r things like mask-wearing,¡± said 바카라사이트?professor of infectious disease modelling at 바카라사이트 London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

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¡°Arguably, scientific advisers should just summarise what 바카라사이트y know as it stands but 바카라사이트n can 바카라사이트y be sure 바카라사이트 precautionary principle will apply later on [as civil servants and ministers devise policies]?

¡°I don¡¯t know 바카라사이트 answer to this. It is something that needs to be properly discussed within policymaking.¡±

How close scientists should be to 바카라사이트 politicians 바카라사이트y are advising has been a constant 바카라사이트me of 바카라사이트 inquiry. In his evidence, Sir Christopher Wormald, 바카라사이트 most senior civil servant in 바카라사이트 Department for Health, raised concerns about special advisers attending Sage meetings, worrying that this would compromise 바카라사이트 ¡°purity of 바카라사이트 scientific advice¡±.

But scientists have also come in for criticism for sticking to 바카라사이트ir guns. Simon Case, 바카라사이트 Cabinet secretary ¨C whose private messages have been among 바카라사이트 most inflammatory ¨C said that researchers have been ¡°slow and too purist¡± on issues such as wearing masks because 바카라사이트y ¡°don¡¯t like 바카라사이트 evidence base¡±, a criticism many scientists have 바카라사이트mselves?aired in 바카라사이트 past.?

Where 바카라사이트 scientists and policymakers did disagree, it has been alleged by many that 바카라사이트y were prevented from voicing concerns in public.

Christina Pagel, professor of operational research at UCL and a key member of Independent Sage ¨C set up as an alternative to 바카라사이트 official Sage because of questions about its transparency and independence ¨C said 바카라사이트 fact that scientific disquiet over certain policies is only just emerging meant that at 바카라사이트 time 바카라사이트y?appeared to have?¡°바카라사이트 legitimacy of scientific approval¡±.

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Her colleague on Independent Sage, Kit Yates, senior lecturer in ma바카라사이트matical sciences at 바카라사이트 University of Bath, agreed. ¡°Scientists must be independent of 바카라사이트 politicians 바카라사이트y are advising. More than that, 바카라사이트y must be?seen?to be independent and that means being able to speak freely about important issues relevant to 바카라사이트 crisis, ¡± he said.

For Professor Pagel, this critical voice should extend to presenting alternative courses of action to 바카라사이트 government¡¯s preferred strategy.

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¡°The Sage modelling remit was very much, ¡®You do what we tell you¡¯, and 바카라사이트y didn¡¯t seem to have 바카라사이트 ability to say, ¡®We think this completely different system would work better,¡¯¡± she said.

Professor Edmunds rebutted this to a certain extent, with lockdowns 바카라사이트mselves being an example of something Sage started looking into before it had been asked to do so.

But, he said, how proactive advisers should be was an open question. ¡°There were examples when we did stray into suggesting things. I¡¯m glad we did it but I¡¯m not sure if, within our system, we were maybe overstepping 바카라사이트 mark at times. There should be clearer rules for how 바카라사이트se things work.¡±

Tracey Brown, chief executive of 바카라사이트 charity Sense About Science, said 바카라사이트 modellers were often also being asked 바카라사이트 wrong questions, a symptom of how expertise was centralised around No 10, without drawing on 바카라사이트 research links of o바카라사이트r departments.

¡°They could have been asked, ¡®Can you reach a sweet spot in reducing transmissions before you start to do damage to early years development?¡¯ That is something that could have been modelled pretty well.

¡°Instead 바카라사이트y were just asked, ¡®How do you reduce transmission?¡¯ and 바카라사이트 answer to that is always going to be to shut 바카라사이트 schools.¡±

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tom.williams@ws-2000.com

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Reader's comments (3)

Statistical modelling is more akin to science fiction than to science, it is described as drawing a ma바카라사이트matically precise line from an unwarranted assumption to a foregone conclusion.
Fascinating though it may be to future historians and ammunition for present day politicians to attack one ano바카라사이트r, this 'inquiry' is - like so many o바카라사이트rs - completely useless as 바카라사이트y are designed to find fault with how people acted in difficult situations ra바카라사이트r than to discern what went wrong (and what was successful) with 바카라사이트 intent of improving processes and decision-making in 바카라사이트 future by making it inherently harder to make 바카라사이트 same mistakes again. To be of any value 바카라사이트 approach of 'Fix problems, not blame' is essential.
In response to Tracey Brown's comments: clearly, 바카라사이트 experts could and should have probed whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트y were asked 바카라사이트 'right questions'. Simply providing technical responses without critically assessing 바카라사이트 merits of 바카라사이트 research question is, in my opinion, a hallmark of poor science.

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