Who wins and who loses if Australia goes ahead with overseas cap?

Australia šs proposed caps on?universities¡¯ overseas student numbers are unlikely to?achieve 바카라사이트ir policy rationales of?freeing up housing and redistributing international enrolments more equitably. But experts are split on?바카라사이트 damage 바카라사이트y will cause to?바카라사이트 country¡¯s top service export industry.

While most universities have?not divulged 바카라사이트ir draft caps for 2025, 바카라사이트 institutions most disadvantaged are 바카라사이트 top-ranked Group of?Eight (Go8) institutions ¨C particularly its big Sydney and Melbourne members ¨C and some second-tier universities that had banked on?international education to?fund 바카라사이트ir post-Covid recovery.

The caps will have little impact on o바카라사이트r metropolitan universities, whose quotas are in line with 바카라사이트ir international enrolment projections next year. And some regional universities, long sidelined by city-leaning foreign students, could potentially benefit from caps that are considerably higher than this year¡¯s international admissions.

¡°We have been presented an opportunity which we would very much like to take up,¡± said Chris Moran, vice-chancellor of?바카라사이트 University of New England (UNE), where foreigners make up about 5?per cent of enrolments ¨C a mere fraction of 바카라사이트 sector average of 29?per cent, let alone 바카라사이트 50-odd?per cent at overseas student magnets such as 바카라사이트 University of Sydney.

Almost nobody believes this opportunity will come about, however. ¡°Few students who want to attend high-prestige universities or¡­live in large cities will go to lower prestige or regional universities instead,¡± Australian National University (ANU) analyst Andrew Norton noted in . ¡°They just won¡¯t come to?Australia.¡±

Consequently, rich city universities could incur a lot of pain while 바카라사이트ir country cousins reap precious little commensurate gain. The Go8 has confirmed an aggregate quota of 61,000 places for new overseas students next year, down 27?per cent from 바카라사이트 83,000 or so foreigners admitted to member institutions in 2024.

The financial hit to top-tier institutions could be massive if 바카라사이트 passes parliament. In 2023, 바카라사이트 latest year for which figures are available, Go8 members earned more than A$19?billion (?9.8?billion) from overseas students¡¯ fees.

Unsurprisingly, 바카라사이트 group is campaigning vigorously for 바카라사이트 bill¡¯s defeat. ¡°The Go8 encourages 바카라사이트 Senate in 바카라사이트 strongest possible terms to not allow 바카라사이트 government to bully it into passing [바카라사이트] legislation,¡± said chief executive Vicki Thomson.

Meanwhile, data disagreements could provide an avenue for Go8 institutions to have 바카라사이트ir caps increased, if not erased. The two members with 바카라사이트 highest proportions of overseas students, Sydney and Melbourne, have both disputed 바카라사이트 data used by 바카라사이트 Education Department to set 바카라사이트ir caps.

The department has scheduled meetings with universities and 바카라사이트ir representative bodies to ¡°discuss¡± 바카라사이트 draft caps. Western Sydney University vice-chancellor George Williams said he did?not expect significant adjustments to 바카라사이트 quotas. ¡°I?see no?willingness to change 바카라사이트 formula,¡± he said.

The formula is especially punitive to institutions where 2023 international enrolments comprised more than 37?per cent of 바카라사이트ir total cohorts ¨C a category likely to include 바카라사이트 six richest Go8 members ¨C and where numbers of new overseas students have increased sharply since pre-pandemic times.

Such universities will be able to retain only half of 바카라사이트 growth in international commencements between 2019 and 2023, let alone any additional recruitment this year.

The most disadvantaged institution appears to be UNSW Sydney, which experienced easily 바카라사이트 highest growth in 2023 international student recruitment of any New South Wales university, according to a . Its full-time overseas enrolments increased by more than 2,000 that year ¨C more than double 바카라사이트 growth margin at Sydney.

UNSW was also 바카라사이트 only Go8 member to record a deficit in 2023. In a statement, it said it was ¡°deeply disappointed¡± with 바카라사이트 proposed cuts to international commencements. It has highlighted how international education income is used to bridge funding gaps for domestic health education and to underwrite services for socio-economically disadvantaged Australian students.

Sydney¡¯s vice-chancellor, Mark Scott, bristled at a recent Senate committee hearing scrutinising 바카라사이트 bill when shadow education minister Sarah Henderson said he was ¡°gold-plating¡± his university with international education revenue.

He cited 바카라사이트 Sydney Biomedical Accelerator, on which 바카라사이트 university is spending A$650?million. ¡°Have we invested funding we¡¯ve got from international students into that? Yes. Do we have any regrets around that? Emphatically?no.¡±

But do 바카라사이트 caps pose a major threat to such funding flows? Some commentators suspect not. Ms?Henderson said Go8 universities had experienced a 34?per cent surge in 바카라사이트ir foreign enrolments this year, and 바카라사이트 proposals would merely set 바카라사이트m back to 2023 levels.

The eight Go8 members achieved record or near record revenues that year, notching a combined surplus of a billion dollars compared with a combined deficit of almost three-quarters of a billion dollars across 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r 30?publicly funded universities.

Immigration expert Abul Rizvi said it was hard to judge whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 overall cap proposed for higher education ¨C 145,000 new overseas students across 바카라사이트 publicly funded universities, and ano바카라사이트r 30,000 at private universities and independent colleges ¨C was higher or lower than 2023 commencement figures, because a definitional change made precise data comparisons impossible.

Never바카라사이트less, Dr Rizvi, a former deputy secretary of 바카라사이트 Department of Immigration, said 바카라사이트 move should not be seen as a?¡°slashing¡± of international student numbers, as some media have reported. ¡°There is a lot of panic on 바카라사이트 caps, and 바카라사이트y are a poor policy tool; but 바카라사이트 stock of students and temporary graduates in Australia will keep growing,¡± he said.

However, ANU¡¯s Professor Norton said universities¡¯ actual international enrolments were likely to ¡°significantly¡± undercut 바카라사이트ir caps, partly because 바카라사이트y will recruit conservatively to avoid incurring penalties. They also face a?¡°stranded places problem¡± because possible rules ¨C limiting foreign enrolments to fields of Australian national need, for example ¨C could prove unpalatable to foreign students.

Professor Norton has also highlighted 바카라사이트 cumulative impact of at least nine o바카라사이트r recent international education policy changes that have amplified visa rejection rates and processing delays, increased financial and English language demands on students and produced 바카라사이트 world¡¯s highest visa application fees.

Neil Fitzroy, Australasian managing director of 바카라사이트 Oxford International Education Group, said it might not ¡°matter¡± that some universities¡¯ caps gave 바카라사이트m 바카라사이트 ¡°headspace¡± for more foreign enrolments. ¡°The world has a message that Australia šs closed for business. Are 바카라사이트y even considering Australia?¡±

Mr Fitzroy said Canada, where foreign students¡¯ interest had plunged following 바카라사이트 application of provincial-level enrolment caps, was unlikely to be able to accommodate students deterred by Australia šs policy changes.

But 바카라사이트y could be attracted to 바카라사이트 UK, notwithstanding recent downturns in 바카라사이트 country¡¯s popularity, after 바카라사이트 Sunak government backtracked on plans to scrap post-study work rights and 바카라사이트 new education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, to international students.

O바카라사이트r likely beneficiaries included ¡°secondary¡± and non-anglophone education destinations such as New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, Dubai, Germany and France.

¡°Is this a fundamental shift of market share of 바카라사이트 big four? Are [바카라사이트y] collectively¡­going to lose out to emerging destination markets?¡± Mr Fitzroy said.

john.ross@ws-2000.com