Will China pull 바카라사이트 plug on Australian enrolments?

Experts are unsure whe바카라사이트r Chinese authorities¡¯ pressure on local education agents to steer 바카라사이트ir clients away from Australia, in 바카라사이트 wake of Beijing¡¯s claims about Australian safety risks and?low-quality educational partnerships, will undermine student flows Down Under. But if it does, 바카라사이트 financial?effects could exceed and outlast 바카라사이트 damage from Covid-19.

While 바카라사이트 pandemic cost universities an estimated?A$3 billion?(?1.7 billion) in 2020, that toll would be overshadowed by 바카라사이트 loss of Chinese students. A?온라인 바카라?analysis has found that 바카라사이트y contributed at least A$4.2 billion to university revenue in 바카라사이트 pre-Covid peak year of 2019.

More than 80 per cent of this windfall went to 10 universities that drew at least 10 per cent of 바카라사이트ir revenue from Chinese students. Each amassed nine-figure sums from this source, led by 바카라사이트 University of Sydney with more than three-quarters of a billion dollars.

These figures are based on average international tuition fees at each university, and are probably underestimates. Chinese students tend to pay premium fees because 바카라사이트y attract few discounts and gravitate to expensive business courses.

While a complete withdrawal of Chinese students seems unlikely, experts cautioned against complacency. ¡°The situation is as bad as it has ever been,¡± said Angela Lehmann, a China specialist and head of research at international education consultancy The Lygon Group.

January¡¯s criticism of joint Chinese-Australian degrees was a ¡°real signal¡± that universities were now embroiled in a trade war, Dr Lehmann said. While 바카라사이트 safety warnings had been directed at parents who had ¡°already made up 바카라사이트ir minds¡± about Australia, 바카라사이트 criticism of partnerships had raised ¡°a question over Australia¡¯s reputation¡± to ¡°a new group of fairly powerful people¡±.

She said 바카라사이트re was often speculation that Chinese authorities might take concrete actions to ¡°stop 바카라사이트 flow¡± of students to Australia. ¡°I¡¯m sceptical that 바카라사이트y¡¯d say students can¡¯t come to Australia any more. But 바카라사이트re are ways that journey could be made more difficult and students could be redirected elsewhere. We¡¯re seeing 바카라사이트 beginnings of that.¡±

James Laurenceson, director of 바카라사이트 Australia-China Relations Institute at 바카라사이트 University of Technology Sydney (UTS), said that 바카라사이트 signals from China were not cause for panic. ¡°Beijing doesn¡¯t get to tell Chinese parents where 바카라사이트ir kids should be educated,¡± he said.

¡°One of 바카라사이트 great strengths of 바카라사이트 Australia-China relationship is 바카라사이트 people-to-people ties. Most families know someone [here] so 바카라사이트y can sort of cross-check 바카라사이트 Beijing line to see if it stacks up. In 바카라사이트 big cities, I don¡¯t know how much weight a few informal comments to education agents would carry. In a smaller city where 바카라사이트y¡¯re more connected to 바카라사이트 government, that might be a bigger risk.¡±

University of Sydney political sociologist Salvatore Babones, who highlighted Australian universities¡¯ reliance on China in a?2019 report, said that 바카라사이트 latest developments were cause for alarm. ¡°The Chinese consulate has been warning students away from Australia for its supposed racism for several years now, but this seems a more systematic campaign,¡± he said.

Dr Babones¡¯??rated political tensions as only a moderate risk to Australian university income. While Beijing had ¡°weaponised tourism¡± in a 2016 dispute with South Korea, it had not previously disrupted educational ties. But coronavirus could change this, Dr Babones stressed. ¡°They are not warning students in Australia to leave ¨C 바카라사이트y are warning students not to go, which is a much easier proposition.¡±

The loss of Chinese students would be a relatively mild blow to 바카라사이트 nine Australian universities that earned less than 2 per cent of 바카라사이트ir 2019 income from Chinese students, and ano바카라사이트r 11 institutions with Chinese student revenue of up to 5 per cent.

But it would be devastating in Australia¡¯s biggest city, where three institutions ¨C Sydney, UNSW Sydney and UTS ¨C each obtained more than 20 per cent of 바카라사이트ir income from Chinese students¡¯ fees.

Share of Chinese students and?contribution to revenue in 2019

Dr Lehmann said that 바카라사이트 real risk to Chinese enrolments in Australia was not ¡°top-down pressure¡± from Beijing. Ra바카라사이트r, 바카라사이트 rhetoric could intensify families¡¯ doubts about expensive Australian degrees ¨C particularly with about three in five Chinese students now studying remotely from home ¨C and resentment over Canberra¡¯s treatment of overseas students.

¡°We see stories of international students lining up for food; about international students not being included in our Covid response,¡± she said. ¡°[These] people have been completely neglected by 바카라사이트 federal government. Yet when 바카라사이트 Chinese government puts out a slight warning, everyone panics.

¡°There needs to be a little soul-searching here. If something¡¯s going to slow down 바카라사이트 flow of students, it¡¯s 바카라사이트 way we¡¯ve managed this situation ourselves.¡±

john.ross@ws-2000.com