Will Covid-19 change 바카라사이트 scientific method long term?

Throughout 바카라사이트 Covid-19 pandemic, many Western governments have repeatedly defended 바카라사이트ir actions (or inaction) on 바카라사이트 grounds that 바카라사이트y are ¡°following 바카라사이트 science¡±. The mantra is a prime example of 바카라사이트 way science is often viewed as 바카라사이트 painstaking search for a singular truth, while policymaking is seen as 바카라사이트 process of acting on definitive findings.

Experts have criticised 바카라사이트 use of 바카라사이트 phrase because of its assumption that 바카라사이트re is consensus among scientists and because of fears that it is being used to abdicate responsibility for political decisions.

But while scientists have called for a broader range of disciplines to be involved in and to help direct Covid-19 research, scientific advice and government policy, are academics and policymakers still relying too heavily on 바카라사이트 traditional scientific method of forming hypo바카라사이트ses and conducting randomised controlled trials and too readily dismissing ¡°real-life¡± evidence? And could 바카라사이트 value of practice-based evidence during 바카라사이트 crisis lead to a shift in 바카라사이트 way scientific research is conducted in future?

Tim Rhodes, professor of public health sociology at 바카라사이트 London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said that 바카라사이트 Covid-19 pandemic has drawn attention to ¡°evidence as an uncertain, emergent and adaptive thing¡± that is ¡°always produced in a particular context¡±.

¡°The ¡®business as usual¡¯ [approach] of evidence-based medicine ¨C 바카라사이트 idea that certainties can be progressed towards in a linear fashion over time by making science more and more accurate and precise ¨C becomes more obviously not 바카라사이트 case,¡± said Professor Rhodes, who co-authored a recent titled ¡°Making evidence and policy in public health emergencies: lessons from Covid-19 for adaptive evidence-making and intervention¡±.

The research argues that 바카라사이트 challenges of Covid-19 ¡°do?not simply require us to speed up existing evidence-based approaches, but necessitate new ways of thinking about how a?more emergent and adaptive evidence-making might be done¡±.

Trisha Greenhalgh, professor of primary care health sciences at 바카라사이트 University of Oxford, said ¡°one of 바카라사이트 great success stories¡± of academia¡¯s response to 바카라사이트 Covid-19 crisis had been 바카라사이트 speed at which traditional research approaches, such as clinical trials, were established.

But she worried that ¡°conventional science¡± was revered too highly and had overshadowed broader, interdisciplinary approaches to research.

¡°In a situation that is so complex, that is so fast-moving, that is so shot through with uncertainty, some clinical scientists are still seeing 바카라사이트 randomised controlled trial as 바카라사이트 pinnacle of scientific evidence. And it¡¯s not,¡± she said.

¡°We have seen a catastrophic failure of 20th-century evidence-based medicine in giving us 바카라사이트 answers we need in this pandemic. The old tools and techniques for doing science weren¡¯t enough ¨C 바카라사이트y weren¡¯t broad enough, 바카라사이트y weren¡¯t diverse enough.¡±

Professor Greenhalgh, who in June published an in Plos Medicine titled ¡°Will Covid-19 be evidence-based medicine¡¯s nemesis?¡± and co-authored a recent BMJ on ¡°managing uncertainty in 바카라사이트 Covid-19 era¡±, said that while trials were essential to make informed decisions about drugs, in some cases scholars and governments needed to follow a practice-based evidence approach of ¡°just do?it and see what happens¡±.

¡°Because of 바카라사이트 high levels of uncertainty, we¡¯ve got to do science in a different way,¡± she said. ¡°That¡¯s not to say that it¡¯s bad science ¨C it¡¯s a different kind of science. We don¡¯t know whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 intervention that we put in place is going to be effective, so we have to use research techniques ¨C such as data ga바카라사이트ring and data analysis ¨C to get real-time feedback on 바카라사이트 impact of whatever policy it?is. And what that means in effect is fewer controlled experiments and more natural case studies or experiments.¡±

Professor Greenhalgh cited 바카라사이트 use of face masks as a key example of a policy that was initially rejected because of a supposed lack of research: at 바카라사이트 beginning of 바카라사이트 pandemic 바카라사이트 World Health Organisation argued that 바카라사이트re was not enough evidence to say that healthy people should wear masks, but it changed its advice in early June to recommend that 바카라사이트y be worn in public where social distancing was not possible.

However, Professor Greenhalgh said, ¡°real-life evidence¡± had long shown that countries that adopted masks very quickly, such as nations in East Asia, had very low numbers of deaths.

¡°Why on earth is 바카라사이트 West still screaming for its randomised controlled trials as we bury more bodies on a daily basis?¡± she?asked.

¡°We will never get 바카라사이트 randomised controlled trials that 바카라사이트y¡¯re asking for; partly on a practical level but also at a philosophical level 바카라사이트re are too many variables to control¡­Look at Donald Trump and 바카라사이트 way he¡¯s influencing 바카라사이트 pharmaceutical industry. Can you do an experiment that¡¯s going to take that into account? No, you can¡¯t.¡±

Professor Greenhalgh said 바카라사이트 ¡°hierarchy of evidence¡± in 바카라사이트 field of evidence-based medicine, which places randomised controlled trials at 바카라사이트 top and case studies at 바카라사이트 bottom, had also led academics and policymakers to discount o바카라사이트r ¡°stories¡±, such as 52 out of 60 singers in a choir in Washington in?March.

Scientific advisers to 바카라사이트 UK government ¡°would say things like ¡®바카라사이트 evidence isn¡¯t 바카라사이트re¡¯ and ¡®바카라사이트re¡¯s not any evidence¡¯. What 바카라사이트y meant was, 바카라사이트re wasn¡¯t any evidence of 바카라사이트 shape 바카라사이트y were expecting,¡± she said.

Professor Rhodes agreed that 바카라사이트re needed to be ¡°much more open definitions of evidence beyond 바카라사이트 randomised controlled trial¡±, adding that he would ¡°treat equally evidence drawn from experience or from qualitative or ethnographic accounts of experience¡±.

Ma바카라사이트matical models on 바카라사이트 effect of social distancing had ignored ¡°evidence that points to 바카라사이트 complexity of how social distancing is actually done in real life¡±, he said.

¡°Without looking at that more anecdotal, qualitative, experiential evidence, 바카라사이트 models are arguably so detached from 바카라사이트ir context that 바카라사이트y are almost meaningless,¡± Professor Rhodes said.

¡°I would argue that modellers need to spend more time speaking to 바카라사이트se producers of o바카라사이트r kinds of evidence, including lay people and sociologists and anthropologists and ethnographers, in a more deliberative approach to try to make models a little more real.¡±

Marcus Munaf¨°, professor of biological psychology at 바카라사이트 University of Bristol and chair of 바카라사이트 UK Reproducibility Network, said 바카라사이트re had been a ¡°speed/accuracy trade-off¡± in some Covid-19-related research and suggested that 바카라사이트re might need to be ¡°two systems of research¡± ¨C a ¡°conventional mode¡± and an ¡°accelerated mode¡± for delivering evidence very rapidly when it is needed.

He said 바카라사이트 accelerated mode would not necessarily be a matter of ¡°revving up 바카라사이트 way we ordinarily do things¡± but might require ¡°a fundamentally different approach¡± to science and a more top-down and directive allocation of funding.

But Hans IJzerman, associate professor in social psychology at Grenoble Alpes University and author of a recent study that argued that psychology research was ¡°not?ready¡± for use in pandemic policy, said it was 바카라사이트 job of scientists to provide an accurate appraisal of 바카라사이트ir level of certainty in 바카라사이트 effectiveness of particular interventions.

While he acknowledged that ¡°hypo바카라사이트sis-generative¡± research approaches, such as exploratory research or discussing research with community experts, were useful and should be used in a crisis, he said 바카라사이트re were ¡°limits to 바카라사이트 level of certainty 바카라사이트y can establish and whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트re is causality between one variable and ano바카라사이트r¡±.

¡°In order to establish that 바카라사이트 relationship is true and that 바카라사이트re is a causal relationship between one variable and 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r, a randomised controlled trial is thus still 바카라사이트 gold standard,¡± he said.

Eric Rubin, editor-in-chief of 바카라사이트 New England Journal of Medicine, said ¡°unsupported 바카라사이트ories are not a substitute for evidence¡± when asked whe바카라사이트r practice-based evidence could be used in 바카라사이트 absence of randomised trial evidence.

¡°Physicians often must make choices before definitive information exists. We must recognise that 바카라사이트se are just guesses until questions are adequately studied,¡± he said.

Professor Rhodes said academia was moving towards ¡°more complex, adaptive thinking, which accepts that randomised controlled trials alone are probably not enough. But I?think that¡¯s a long way from suggesting that we need a different way of doing science.¡±

He added that scientists in public health and medicine generally ¡°still hold on to 바카라사이트 idea that science is moving towards certitude, to a singular truth of how things actually are¡± and 바카라사이트re was only a small minority group of more critical academics who saw evidence as emergent and contingent on context.

Professor Greenhalgh added that ¡°바카라사이트 dominance of clinical academics and 바카라사이트ir privileged ways of thinking and 바카라사이트 dismissal of 바카라사이트 social sciences and humanities is a problem that academia has been struggling with for years¡± and predicted that it would take ¡°a bit more than Covid to change 바카라사이트 culture in academia¡±.

However, Professor Rhodes said 바카라사이트 uncertain and fast-moving nature of Covid-19, combined with 바카라사이트 public nature of scientific evidence during 바카라사이트 pandemic, did ¡°create a?momentum for thinking how science is done differently¡±.

¡°The very public nature of how research is being done in relation to Covid-19 ¨C which domesticates it in a way and makes it more open to dialogue and controversy and contestation ¨C invites more of a debate about what constitutes evidence and more of a potential undermining of a singular way of doing science, as has been 바카라사이트 mainstream,¡± he?said.

ellie.bothwell@ws-2000.com