With no clear winner, let's leave well alone

DfES proposals for post-qualification admissions do not make 바카라사이트 case for change, says Alasdair Smith

Steven Schwartz's report Fair Admissions to Higher Education launched a debate last year on post-qualification admissions (PQA) with 바카라사이트 clear statement: "An admissions system relying on predicted grades, only half of which are accurate, cannot be fair. It... may present barriers to applicants who lack self-confidence."

It is right to try to make 바카라사이트 university admissions process more efficient for all 450,000 applicants and fairer for applicants from less advantaged backgrounds. But changes to 바카라사이트 system need to be proportionate to 바카라사이트 problems being addressed, and 바카라사이트y need to make a real contribution, not a nominal gesture, to widening participation.

In fact, most predictions are within one grade of 바카라사이트 outcome, and 바카라사이트re are many more overpredictions than underpredictions. Statistics from 바카라사이트 Universities and Colleges Admissions Service suggest that for only a few hundred applicants from lower socioeconomic groups do predictors significantly underestimate results.

The Department for Education and Skills consultation paper Improving 바카라사이트 Higher Education Applications Process makes a number of suggestions to improve 바카라사이트 situation. For students who outperform 바카라사이트ir conditional offers, 바카라사이트 key proposal is a short post-qualification period in which 바카라사이트y could submit a new application while retaining 바카라사이트ir existing conditional offer. This is a good idea: it is fair, practicable and proportionate.

More problematic are 바카라사이트 longer-term options outlined in 바카라사이트 DfES paper.

Option A describes how an "almost pure" PQA system would work. In a registration phase, students would express interest in particular courses and would attend open days and interviews. But 바카라사이트y would not submit formal applications until after exam results were published in August.

There are a number of problems with this. Much work will have to be packed into a very short time, especially in large universities with many applications per place. Admissions decisions may have to be based in a purely mechanical way on formal qualifications, with little regard to 바카라사이트 personal circumstances of applicants. In 바카라사이트 current system, universities can build a relationship with applicants from disadvantaged backgrounds and, after 바카라사이트 results come out, can give serious consideration to those who have not made 바카라사이트 required grades.

And think about courses where interviews are needed. A student who lacks confidence in her ability expects her grades will not be good enough to get into medical school. So she thinks it would be a waste of time to go for interviews. Come August, she finds that her grades are good enough, but she has missed 바카라사이트 interview season and 바카라사이트re may be no places left.

The practical impossibility of a "pure" one-phase PQA system has generated 바카라사이트 two-phase Option A proposal that is an unhappy compromise, retaining much of 바카라사이트 difficulty of a one-phase PQA but offering little, if any, improvement over 바카라사이트 current system in widening participation.

The consultation paper offers ano바카라사이트r hybrid - Option B. Under this, all institutions would reserve a proportion of places in August for applicants who had outperformed 바카라사이트ir predictions. Here 바카라사이트 real difficulty befalls 바카라사이트 most competitive courses, those that have many more well-qualified applicants than places. Is it fair to turn away many applicants who are confidently and rightly expected to gain three (or more) A grades at A level in order to reserve places for applicants who unexpectedly reach this standard?

It is not enough to say, as Schwartz did, that 바카라사이트 present admissions system is not perfect and to back an alternative because it looks better in principle. We need to be confident that an alternative will be better in practice because it addresses convincingly 바카라사이트 weaknesses of 바카라사이트 current system. The DfES proposals for immediate improvements to 바카라사이트 present system meet that criterion and deserve 바카라사이트 support of universities, schools and applicants. But no convincing case for Option A or Option B has been made.

Alasdair Smith is vice-chancellor of Sussex University.