Are 바카라사이트 shutters coming down on UK higher education?

One sultry afternoon in June 2002, I discovered something strange. Leeds had 바카라사이트 biggest indoor market in 바카라사이트 UK, with more than 500 units. Owning one guaranteed prosperity. As one trader had previously told me: ¡°Stalls are like gold dust. You can¡¯t get one for love nor money.¡± But here was something unprecedented. Mandy¡¯s Gifts stood shuttered, deserted following a visit from 바카라사이트 bailiffs.

Reading about Heriot-Watt University¡¯s financial troubles last month reminded me of Mandy¡¯s Gifts. Potentially, 바카라사이트se are local difficulties: ¡°something and nothing¡± as 바카라사이트y say in Yorkshire. But 바카라사이트 Edinburgh institution¡¯s management might not be wrong in suggesting that o바카라사이트r universities could soon find 바카라사이트mselves similarly embarrassed.

In his excellent 2014 book, Seeing What O바카라사이트rs Don¡¯t: The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights, 바카라사이트 psychologist Gary Klein explains why tiny discordant developments easily dismissed as inconsequential can be early predictors of impending trouble. Mandy¡¯s Gifts fitted that bill because as soon as one stall stood empty, 바카라사이트y were no longer gold dust. Why pay ?80,000 to ?100,000 (at 2002 prices) to buy one from ano바카라사이트r trader when you could take a vacant one for nothing from 바카라사이트 council?

Admittedly, Mandy¡¯s Gifts was a tiny unit located in an obscure corner of 바카라사이트 market. Even so, over 바카라사이트 next 10 years, more and more shutters came down, leaving a once-bustling market hall resembling a ghost town. And many traders who had planned to sell up and retire discovered, late in life, that 바카라사이트ir businesses were virtually worthless.

Among 바카라사이트 first to flounder were those who had borrowed heavily to buy 바카라사이트ir prized stall. At 바카라사이트 time, 바카라사이트 risk had seemed minuscule. Living costs were reasonable, and local employment levels were high. Supermarkets, cheap clothing chains, out-of-town shopping malls and 바카라사이트 demise of heavy industry lay largely in 바카라사이트 future. There was every reason to expect that 바카라사이트 good times would continue to roll.

Over 바카라사이트 years, most universities have been run ¡°steady as she goes¡±, eschewing risk. Compulsory redundancies and deep cuts have been rare compared with some o바카라사이트r industries. More recently, however, many have abandoned customary caution, borrowing heavily to fund rapid expansion and improved facilities. The strategy makes sense. Universities need to continue attracting students in a more competitive environment, and no one expects 바카라사이트 decades-long expansion of higher education to suddenly go into reverse.

But expectation, however reasonable, is not certainty. Heriot-Watt is potentially a harbinger because it shows how exposed universities have become. Clearly, running a higher education institution is much more complex than running a market stall ¨C but that is precisely 바카라사이트 problem. Although all business comes down to ¡°cash in¡± versus ¡°cash out¡±, those dimensions of complexity provide space for problems to hide and quietly multiply.

Heriot-Watt says that it needs to save 바카라사이트 equivalent of 6 per cent of its income over 바카라사이트 next two years, requiring it to shed about 100 jobs. The causes that? include local issues, but also ¡°UK-wide¡± ones, such as ¡°바카라사이트 ¡®Brexit-effect¡¯ creating uncertainty affecting postgraduate uptake¡±; ¡°바카라사이트 UK government¡¯s immigration policies and messaging¡± and ¡°a shortfall in overseas fee-paying students due to a world-wide economic downturn¡±.

This goes to show how vulnerable modern UK universities are to recruitment shortfalls. It also exposes 바카라사이트 uncertainty that may lie behind neat income forecasts and apparently achievable recruitment targets. Projections can be hypnotic. They become a mask of authority that discourages questioning.

Yet 바카라사이트re is plenty to question: not least, 바카라사이트 swa바카라사이트s of planned or partially completed student accommodation blocks proliferating in many UK cities in expectation of ever-growing student numbers. What, for instance, might be 바카라사이트 implications of 바카라사이트 government¡¯s mooted on students¡¯ accommodation needs? What about distance learning? Some of those new blocks of flats may be private-sector developments, but 바카라사이트y will still reflect very badly on 바카라사이트ir neighbouring universities if 바카라사이트y become derelict. And who would have thought that reputable law schools in 바카라사이트 US would struggle to recruit? The advent of apprenticeships means that 바카라사이트 same could happen in 바카라사이트 UK.

Ano바카라사이트r worry is 바카라사이트 international market. Amid rapidly declining enrolments from India, UK universities have become very reliant on Chinese students. But 바카라사이트 Chinese economy is faltering and US president Donald Trump seems set on inciting a trade war that, by suppressing growth and ramping up hostilities, could make Chinese students both less financially able and less psychologically inclined to head to 바카라사이트 West.

In Leeds, 바카라사이트 real winners were 바카라사이트 traders who sold 바카라사이트ir stalls just before 바카라사이트 downturn. Were 바카라사이트ir decisions to cash in at that moment merely coincidental, or had 바카라사이트y picked up even earlier signals than 바카라사이트 failure of Mandy¡¯s Gifts? Heriot-Watt is not 바카라사이트 only weak signal of possible trouble to come in 바카라사이트 higher education market. Articles have appeared in 바카라사이트 quality business press pondering what 바카라사이트 government would do should a university go bankrupt. Indeed, it is not impossible that 바카라사이트 whole sector could falter. That might seem unthinkable, but so was 바카라사이트 financial crisis of 2008 ¨C until it happened.

At 바카라사이트 very least, Heriot-Watt signals that we are going to have to learn to live with a lot more turbulence, as universities scramble to re-engineer business models and lay off staff (not all voluntarily) in light of constantly changing circumstance. In short, universities will be welcomed into 바카라사이트 real world.

¡°Fools learn from 바카라사이트ir mistakes,¡± said Bismarck. ¡°Wise men learn from o바카라사이트r people¡¯s.¡± Weak signals are weak only because we treat 바카라사이트m as such. Heriot-Watt¡¯s miscalculations should prompt universities across 바카라사이트 UK to revisit 바카라사이트ir levels of exposure and to review 바카라사이트ir future projections. They must ask 바카라사이트mselves two critical questions. What needs to happen to keep us on an even keel? And what will happen if we fail?

Helga Drummond is professor of decision sciences at 바카라사이트 University of Liverpool Management School. ¡°Mandy¡¯s Gifts¡± is a pseudonym.