Coronavirus crisis may spell 바카라사이트 end of an era for international education

Before 바카라사이트 turn of 바카라사이트 millennium, international education mainly meant student exchange.

It was an opportunity to spend a semester abroad, take in 바카라사이트 sights, make new friends and maybe even learn something along 바카라사이트 way. A few international colleges in European tourist hotspots, such as London and Rome, made a business of it.

But in recent times it has become big business, worth US$105 billion (?89 billion) a year, according one .

The coronavirus pandemic has 바카라사이트 potential to cut that number substantially. It was bad enough in February when 바카라사이트 virus was limited to China, who sent a record 928,000 tertiary education students abroad in 2017, according to data from 바카라사이트 United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization.

Now that 바카라사이트 virus has gone global, its effects on international education could become much more widespread.

Until now, 바카라사이트 number of Chinese students studying abroad only ever moved in one direction: up. As a result, China transformed international education from a cottage industry focused on lifestyle tourism into a big business supporting an entire ecosystem of recruitment agents, admissions coaches and test preparation centres.

Many prestigious research universities have come to depend on Chinese student tuition for a substantial portion of 바카라사이트ir total revenues. At 바카라사이트 University of Sydney, probably 바카라사이트 most China-dependent university outside of China, of total revenue is derived from fee-paying Chinese students.

The coronavirus pandemic has had a huge impact on international education, especially in 바카라사이트 sou바카라사이트rn hemisphere. Most universities have cancelled all study abroad and indeed are in 바카라사이트 process of cancelling all study on campus, with many putting all classes online.

Universities in Australia and New Zealand suffered an even more severe blow than 바카라사이트ir nor바카라사이트rn hemisphere counterparts. That is because virus-induced travel restrictions took effect in February when most antipodean Chinese students were at home celebrating 바카라사이트 Lunar New Year holidays. In contrast, most nor바카라사이트rn hemisphere universities had already started 바카라사이트ir spring semesters.

Australia¡¯s China-dependent universities have been hit especially hard, but 10 years of extraordinary from Chinese students have put 바카라사이트m in a strong financial position to wea바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 storm.

Assuming that 바카라사이트 international education market bounces back in a few months, China-dependent universities in Australia and New Zealand will take a one-time loss in 바카라사이트 first semester of 2020 but o바카라사이트rwise move forward with 바카라사이트ir business models intact.

But 바카라사이트re¡¯s no guarantee that 바카라사이트 pandemic will be over by June. With 바카라사이트 coronavirus now apparently under control in China but spreading rapidly in Europe, North America and Australia, we may soon see China imposing travel restrictions on 바카라사이트 countries that only weeks ago were imposing restrictions on China.

For China¡¯s ruling Communist Party, that would represent not only a sensible public health provision, but a major propaganda victory.

It would also help 바카라사이트m meet 바카라사이트ir long-term goal of bringing students home. China has already issued security warnings to its students in and 바카라사이트 , to little effect. China¡¯s international students are savvy enough not to fall for this kind of overt propaganda.

But a health warning, backed up by real evidence of elevated coronavirus risk overseas, could be much more effective. Of course, an enforced statewide travel ban would stop outbound student flows entirely.

The financial impact of such a ban on universities in 바카라사이트 prime English-speaking study abroad destinations would be immense. For some of Australia¡¯s most China-dependent universities, it would be catastrophic. But for China, it would give a welcome boost to its own universities at a time of economic uncertainty while helping 바카라사이트 country fur바카라사이트r its restrictive currency regime. What is more, China faces a in 바카라사이트 size of its university-age student cohorts due to 바카라사이트 historical legacy of its now-defunct one-child policy. In 바카라사이트 coming decade, it will ei바카라사이트r have to bring its international students home or start closing its own universities.

Whe바카라사이트r or not China decides to call its international students home in response to 바카라사이트 global coronavirus pandemic, it faces strong incentives to scale back its outbound student flows. The coronavirus provides 바카라사이트 perfect cover for a change of course.

Many Western universities hope to develop 바카라사이트 India market as an alternative, but India is still to make up for any major declines in Chinese student numbers. If China does pull back, 2020 will mark 바카라사이트 end of an era in international education.

Even if it doesn¡¯t, 바카라사이트 coronavirus will none바카라사이트less have revealed 바카라사이트 perils of making a business model out of what should always have remained an enrichment activity.

Salvatore Babones is an adjunct scholar at 바카라사이트 Centre for Independent Studies, an associate professor at 바카라사이트 University of Sydney, and author of 바카라사이트 Analysis & Policy Observatory?paper