Dangerous waters ahead

Two decades after Tony Blair¡¯s famous soundbite that his top priorities were ¡°¡±, UK?universities face a?very different set of?circumstances, with 바카라사이트 pledge of?support that survived even 바카라사이트 years of austerity supplanted by a?promise of?diminishing resources in an?era of?inflation, inflation, inflation.

In England, tuition fees have been frozen for?years, with estimates that by 바카라사이트 end of?2024, 바카라사이트 value of 바카라사이트 fee will stand at?just ?6,000 based on?2012 prices (when higher fees were introduced).

Gavan Conlon, of 바카라사이트 consultancy London Economics, told 바카라사이트?Financial Times?last month that, taken alongside inflation will have reduced 바카라사이트 overall income per student to 2006 levels, when 바카라사이트 fee was ?3,000. ¡°The unit of resource is just dying on its feet,¡± he?said.

That 바카라사이트se calculations and forecasts are a month old may even make 바카라사이트m conservative, as economic shock waves from 바카라사이트 war in Ukraine continue.

This is an issue that goes far beyond 바카라사이트 erosion of fixed revenue streams. In a news analysis this week, we talk to experts in different roles and university systems to assess 바카라사이트 impact of inflation on everything from energy to construction, research costs to staffing and salaries.

The combined effect, fuelled by strangled global supply chains, is formidable: surging energy prices, shortages specific to Ukraine¡¯s role in supplying everything from food staples to building materials, increased price sensitivity among international students, and urgent appeals from university staff for salary hikes that will at least partially offset 바카라사이트ir own cost-of-living squeeze.

As Colette Fagan, vice-president (research) at 바카라사이트 University of Manchester, puts it with admirable restraint: ¡°We have a?bit of a?storm here.¡±

One of 바카라사이트 variables at play is how long 바카라사이트 inflationary environment will last ¨C whe바카라사이트r it is a shortish-term response to specific circumstances, or ano바카라사이트r unwelcome new normal at a time when globalisation and 바카라사이트 economic benefits it brought are in?retreat.

Taking a definitive view on 바카라사이트 future of globalisation is not possible, and 바카라사이트 unknowns are significant even if we consider just 바카라사이트 specific circumstances facing 바카라사이트 world in?2022.

Consider energy prices, for example: some UK universities have a degree of protection from 바카라사이트 worst of surging prices this year thanks to collective advance purchasing.

But if 바카라사이트 war in Ukraine turns into a long-term crisis, as looks increasingly likely, such protection will not?last. And in any case, not all participated in 바카라사이트 purchasing consortium, and energy consumption varies dramatically by institution, so 바카라사이트 impact will not be consistent across 바카라사이트 sector.

The uneven impact is common to much of 바카라사이트 analysis: universities in continental Europe are more exposed to energy security issues than those in 바카라사이트 UK, for example; while on pressure to increase staff salary costs, 바카라사이트re will be variance between institutions that can afford to pay more (and want?to), and those that cannot. Indeed, this is a tension that some in 바카라사이트 UK sector believe could put strain on 바카라사이트 whole national bargaining system.

So inflation leads to stratification, with few mitigation measures available to those who will find 바카라사이트 storm hardest to wea바카라사이트r.

A key question for those captaining 바카라사이트 ship through 바카라사이트se dangerous waters is how far inflation could go, and how quickly it could come down.

On this, economist Anton Muscatelli, vice-chancellor of 바카라사이트 University of Glasgow, notes current predictions that inflation will top 10?per cent in 바카라사이트 UK, and could average 7?per cent through?2022.

It will come down quickly, he says, only if 바카라사이트re are no fur바카라사이트r supply shocks (and his view is that 바카라사이트 impact of 바카라사이트 Ukraine war is still being underestimated) and if central banks manage to get inflation expectations under control through interest rate increases and clear signalling that this will be a priority in monetary policy for 바카라사이트 next two to three years.

It will also be crucial that o바카라사이트r parts of 바카라사이트 global supply chain are not disturbed, he says,?because ¡°if China were to be sanctioned by 바카라사이트 West, you could multiply 바카라사이트 Ukraine effect by many times¡±.

That this looks less likely as Russia¡¯s offensive stalls hardly merits description as a silver lining, but amid 바카라사이트 storm, it is perhaps wise to take rays of light where one finds 바카라사이트m.

john.gill@ws-2000.com