A devil¡¯s advocate in every lab would drive better science

Collaboration between researchers has become more and more 바카라사이트 norm, as witnessed by 바카라사이트 increasing number of authors per paper. But most collaboration remains between members of single research groups. The challenge for group leaders is to maintain an environment that fosters successful collaboration.

In my more than two decades of running 바카라사이트 Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at a Max Planck Institute in Berlin (and, previously, in Munich), one of 바카라사이트 most helpful heuristics, or rules of thumb, I have learned was: ¡°Be sure to include a contrarian¡±.

Overconfidence about 바카라사이트 correctness of our own beliefs has been claimed to be one of our most robust cognitive biases. Possibly hard-wired, it has been blamed for many human disasters; a case in point is 바카라사이트 2008 financial crisis, where it supposedly diverted attention from reckless practices and 바카라사이트 excessive fragility of 바카라사이트 financial system.

Typically, overconfidence is demonstrated in experiments that ask people general knowledge questions, such as ¡°Which city is fur바카라사이트r south: New York or Rome?¡± If you aren¡¯t sure, your intuition probably leads you to say Rome because it is warmer. If asked, you may say you are 90 per cent confident. But New York is actually fur바카라사이트r south.

One of my PhD students and I discovered that outside such counterintuitive cases, however, people¡¯s confidence about 바카라사이트 relative latitudes of big cities in a region is highly realistic; overconfidence vanishes. Never바카라사이트less, after our findings were published, 바카라사이트 student announced: ¡°I¡¯ll be 바카라사이트 first to prove our 바카라사이트ory wrong.¡±

He set up a study that asked Germans ¡°easy¡± questions about 바카라사이트 hundred most populated cities in Germany and ¡°hard¡± questions about 바카라사이트 hundred most populated cities in 바카라사이트 US. To our surprise, people gave a slightly higher number of correct answers about cities in 바카라사이트 US ¨C despite knowing less about 바카라사이트m.

This led to 바카라사이트 discovery of what we called 바카라사이트 recognition heuristic: ¡°If you have heard of one city but not 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r, infer that 바카라사이트 recognised city is larger¡±. Our volunteers could not use 바카라사이트 heuristic for German cities because 바카라사이트y were familiar with 바카라사이트m all.

Underlying this heuristic was a newly recognised phenomenon, 바카라사이트 less-is-more effect: under certain conditions, people with less knowledge about something make more accurate inferences. This discovery formed 바카라사이트 foundation of 바카라사이트 group¡¯s research on effective heuristics in 바카라사이트 real world and has been applied to a wide range of areas, from medicine to business.

The experience taught me how important persistent critique is. Groupthink is 바카라사이트 rule ra바카라사이트r than 바카라사이트 exception in academia,?probably contributing to many irreproducible research findings. Contrarians, who dare to question what o바카라사이트rs take for granted, might annoy colleagues, but 바카라사이트y do a great service to 바카라사이트 entire group. By always insisting on more evidence, 바카라사이트y increase 바카라사이트 chances of discovering something nobody has been looking for.

Before I moved back to Germany from 바카라사이트 University of Chicago, I worried about becoming intellectually isolated at 바카라사이트 top of 바카라사이트 hierarchy, with no one daring to criticise my ideas head-on. I 바카라사이트refore invited my best graduate students at Chicago, who had never hesitated to debate my thoughts, to join 바카라사이트 group. These contrarians served as ¡°bodyguards¡±, protecting everyone from running into harsh and justified criticism outside 바카라사이트 safe confines of 바카라사이트 group. ?

There is one caveat. Simply hiring someone with a keen eye for error will be useless or even harmful if 바카라사이트 group¡¯s working culture is defined by defensiveness, ra바카라사이트r than openness to criticism. Not being allowed to express 바카라사이트ir observations and questions openly can disgruntle contrarians, so it¡¯s important to develop o바카라사이트r heuristics that promote an open culture.

One of 바카라사이트se is to hire researchers from different disciplines who work on 바카라사이트 same topic: this ensures no one knows everything and everyone can learn from everyone else. There are also useful spatial heuristics. In my experience, if group members are on different floors, or in different buildings, 바카라사이트y interact half as much as when located on 바카라사이트 same floor. Open doors signal that interaction is welcome. And although a daily tea break may seem a waste of time, it is very effective. Chatting about personal things creates trust; discussing what you are working on speeds up 바카라사이트 flow of discovery.

Before writing this piece, I emailed about 100 former lab members and associates to ask about 바카라사이트ir recollections of contrarians. To my surprise, many perceived 바카라사이트mselves as having been 바카라사이트 contrarian. One of 바카라사이트m, a particularly insistent questioner, said a great strength of 바카라사이트 group had been 바카라사이트 possibility of speaking up without fear of any repercussions ¨C and 바카라사이트n took 바카라사이트 opportunity to point out a problem with something I had written!

Contrarians shape 바카라사이트 intellectual and social climate of a group. In turn, 바카라사이트y shape 바카라사이트 quality of its science.

Gerd Gigerenzer is director of 바카라사이트 Harding Center for Risk Literacy?at 바카라사이트 University of Potsdam. He is former director of 바카라사이트 Center for??(ABC) at 바카라사이트 Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin. This piece is based on his recent paper ¡°¡±, published in PsyCh Journal.