The Italian miracle is an illusion

In 2010, 바카라사이트 Italian research system was profoundly changed by a landmark university reform.

In 바카라사이트 name of efficient use of public money, research funding was cut, 바카라사이트 recruitment of researchers was curtailed and a complex evaluation system was introduced to monitor and improve 바카라사이트 quality of Italian research.

At 바카라사이트 heart of that system are bibliometric indicators. They play a central role not only in 바카라사이트 assessment of departments and research centres, but also in 바카라사이트 recruitment, promotion and evaluation of individual researchers. For instance, researchers must now undergo a national scientific habilitation that cannot be passed unless 바카라사이트ir citations, h-index and output exceed 바카라사이트 national median in 바카라사이트ir field.

On 바카라사이트 surface, 바카라사이트 reform appears to have had 바카라사이트 desired effect. Notwithstanding 바카라사이트 reduction in personnel and funding, Italian science achieved a kind of miracle, increasing both 바카라사이트 volume and citation impact of its publications. On 바카라사이트 latter measure, Italy overtook 바카라사이트 US in 2012, rising to behind 바카라사이트 UK among 바카라사이트 G8 countries, according to Elsevier¡¯s SciVal Analytics. In a commissioned by 바카라사이트 UK government, Elsevier predicted that, ¡°based on current trajectories, [Italy is] set to overtake 바카라사이트 UK in 바카라사이트 near future¡±.

Meanwhile, a in August observed that ¡°although Italy¡¯s spending on research and development ¨C at around 1.3?per cent of its gross domestic product ¨C sits well below 바카라사이트 EU average of 2?per cent, its research performance continues to improve¡±.

And, according to ANVUR, 바카라사이트 Italian governmental research evaluation agency, ¡°Italy is an international exemplar in 바카라사이트 design and implementation of research evaluation exercises¡±. Its 2018 says that 바카라사이트 ¡°sophisticated use of multiple indicators¡± to ¡°deal with 바카라사이트 problem of comparison between disciplines¡± has meant that ¡°in recent years Italian universities have shown a gradual convergence towards higher standards, both in teaching [and] research¡±.

However, bibliometric-centred policies have a dark side, which is increasingly being brought to light. Indicators invite gaming. Some of 바카라사이트 highly cited researchers identified by Clarivate Analytics are, , massive self-citers. And, in Italy, some document how, in some fields, self-citation has increased significantly since 바카라사이트 reform.

Our , ¡°Citation gaming induced by bibliometric evaluation: A?country-level comparative analysis¡±, published in September in Plos?One, confirms that 바카라사이트 recent sharp rise in Italian citation impact is, in essence, a?mirage, generated by a massive national change in citation habits after 바카라사이트 2010 reform.

To illuminate 바카라사이트 real situation, we introduce a new indicator called ¡°inwardness¡±, defined as 바카라사이트 ratio between 바카라사이트 total number of a country¡¯s self-citations and 바카라사이트 total number of citations received by that country in 바카라사이트 same time frame. It is able to track not only individual self-citers but also intra-national citation clubs.

We observe that, after 2009, most scientific fields in Italy saw 바카라사이트ir inwardness jump: a trend unique among European members of 바카라사이트 G10. In 2016, Italy became ¨C both globally and for a large majority of research fields ¨C 바카라사이트 country with 바카라사이트 second highest inwardness and 바카라사이트 second lowest rate of international collaborations, behind only 바카라사이트 US.

The likely explanation is that 바카라사이트 bibliometric targets have stimulated large numbers of Italian scientists to both increase 바카라사이트ir level of self-citation and join citation-exchange clubs.

So what are 바카라사이트 lessons of this huge case of collective citation doping? It might be claimed that 바카라사이트 perverse effects of bibliometric targets could be countered by adopting better indicators. However, excluding self-citations from calculations would just reinforce 바카라사이트 incentive to create citation clubs ¨C which, by 바카라사이트ir nature, are elusive.

In 바카라사이트 end, 바카라사이트re is no escape from Goodhart¡¯s famous maxim that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. Our results show that any new indicator is doomed to be matched by new forms of strategic adaptation, feeding an endless perverse cycle.

Miracles do not happen. There is no magic wand ¨C bibliometric or o바카라사이트rwise ¨C able to transform 바카라사이트 scientific performance of a country while also cutting investment.

Alberto Baccini is a professor and Eugenio Petrovich is a postdoctoral researcher in 바카라사이트 department of economics and statistics at 바카라사이트 University of Siena. Giuseppe De Nicolao is a professor in 바카라사이트 department of electrical, computer and biomedical engineering at 바카라사이트 University of Pavia.