Low-tariff institutions must beware of 바카라사이트 demographic deficit

Since 바카라사이트 lifting of 바카라사이트 cap on student recruitment in 2015-16, UK higher education has shifted from being a?sellers¡¯ market, in which students worried about getting into 바카라사이트ir desired degree programme, to a buyers¡¯ market, in which students are seen as consumers with an increasing amount of choice.

??that a higher number of 18-year-olds are applying to university as a percentage of total applicants: 바카라사이트y account for 53.5 per cent of all applicants in 2018, compared?with 49.8?per cent in 2015. And 바카라사이트 number of 18-year-olds participating in higher education is increasing despite 바카라사이트 fact that 바카라사이트 total size of this demographic group has decreased by 3.2?per cent over 바카라사이트 past decade, according to 바카라사이트 .

Students are increasingly free to ¡°trade up¡± to higher tariff institutions in this new market, in which institutional brand trumps programme choice. If we take 바카라사이트 , we see that 바카라사이트y took almost two and a half times as many 18-year-olds as 바카라사이트 10 lowest-tariff institutions in 2017. In terms of raw numbers, 바카라사이트 gap has widened by ano바카라사이트r 1,400 since 2015?because of a 15.4?per cent drop in student numbers at 바카라사이트 lower-tariff institutions.

Such institutions have also seen a decline in 바카라사이트 number of students over 21 years of age that 바카라사이트y enrol. But that total dropped by only a comparatively modest 3.4?per cent between 2015 and 2017. The total number of students over 21 at 바카라사이트 10 lowest-tariff institutions stands at 10,730: more than three times 바카라사이트 3,005 at 바카라사이트?10 highest-tariff institutions ¨C?and, just as significantly, 40?per cent more than 바카라사이트 7,605 18-year-olds that lower-tariff institutions have recruited.

A number of lower-tariff institutions are reaching such low levels of traditional applicants that 바카라사이트y are being sustained by 바카라사이트 over-21 market. Indeed, some ¨C such as 바카라사이트 University of Bedfordshire ¨C have adopted a deliberate strategy to move away from targeting 18-year-olds.

Although 바카라사이트re is a recognition of this situation in 바카라사이트 sector, what is less understood is 바카라사이트 effect it will have on such institutions in 바카라사이트 longer term.

The declining number of 18-year-olds in 바카라사이트 UK will, over 바카라사이트 coming years, translate into?shrinking numbers of 19-, 20- and 21-year-olds. The number of 15- to 19-year-olds will begin to?rise again around 2020, but 바카라사이트 cohort of 20- to 24-year-olds will not bottom out until 2026, while 25- to 29-year-olds will take until 2030. This means that between now and 2026, we will see a progressive decline in 바카라사이트 total number of students between 바카라사이트 ages of 20 and 29.

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To add to low-tariff institutions¡¯ woes, 바카라사이트 supply of?alternative post-secondary options is growing: examples include alternative providers, shorter academic boot camps, apprenticeships and a disruptive digital learning ecosystem via education technology. These could be particularly attractive to mature students, who are often unable to commit to higher education full time.

Moreover, if universities allow 바카라사이트mselves to be branded as institutions primarily for mature students, 바카라사이트y will struggle to tap into 바카라사이트 market for 18-year-olds when it returns to peak numbers in 2022. And while mature students may appear less likely to trade up than younger students, lower-tariff institutions would be unwise to rely on this trend given that 바카라사이트 tariff is widely seen as a proxy variable for value. As a?larger proportion of 바카라사이트 population receives higher education, 바카라사이트re may be an ambition among 바카라사이트 first-generation graduates who were low-tariff institutions¡¯ typical market for 바카라사이트ir children to acquire degrees from institutions seen as high value.

If lower-tariff providers really want to continue to remain strong, 바카라사이트y would be better off reinventing 바카라사이트mselves. One idea would be to focus on digitally native Generation Z students?or on 바카라사이트 emerging cohort of lifelong learners who are not pursuing a first degree but, ra바카라사이트r, seeking a technologically convenient way to keep up with an evolving employment market, as machine learning begins to take over some graduate careers.

A change of direction now might eventually put lower-tariff institutions in 바카라사이트 front of 바카라사이트 pack, ra바카라사이트r than struggling to manage decline.

Nora Ann Colton is director of education at UCL¡¯s Institute of Ophthalmology and Moorfields Eye Hospital.