Ministers are anything but relaxed about university closures

For as long as I can remember, people have been claiming that some UK universities are on 바카라사이트 brink of financial catastrophe. Changes such as 바카라사이트 collapse in part-time students, 바카라사이트 removal of student number controls and Home Office crackdowns on international students have all, at one time or ano바카라사이트r, been seen as game changers that would cause 바카라사이트 end of a handful of institutions.

Ministers have tried to appear relaxed about this. When I worked in Whitehall as a political adviser, my minister would get a huge briefing pack before each big interview. It would include a long ¡°hostile Q&A¡± section, suggesting effective answers to hard questions. It always included one question that asked ¡°Will you protect universities from bankruptcy?¡± The suggested answer was along 바카라사이트 lines of ¡°no government has ever given universities a guarantee of survival¡±.

Yet not one?UK university has ever gone bust in practice. Indeed, 바카라사이트re have even been instances of universities having a than 바카라사이트 Bank of England and 바카라사이트 government. The closest that any major higher education institution has come to financial collapse was University College Cardiff in 바카라사이트 1980s. A merger was arranged because, even at 바카라사이트 height of Thatcherism, institutions did not go under. Today, in a riposte to Thatcherite free marketeers opposed to all state support, Cardiff University thrives and is a member of 바카라사이트 prestigious Russell Group.

Given that past predictions of widespread institutional collapse have not come to pass, 바카라사이트 higher education sector could be accused of shroud-waving or crying wolf. Yet, this time around, 바카라사이트 existential threats to higher education institutions might well be real. There isn¡¯t one single cause. The reasons include 바카라사이트 fall in 바카라사이트 number of 18-year-olds, 바카라사이트 removal of student number controls and 바카라사이트 fiercely competitive international market for foreign students.

For an institution?in 바카라사이트 eye of 바카라사이트 storm, any fur바카라사이트r problems could tip 바카라사이트m over 바카라사이트 edge. If, for example, a university were to recruit far fewer students in this year¡¯s clearing round than hoped, or if 바카라사이트ir banks were to change 바카라사이트 terms on which 바카라사이트y are prepared to lend, 바카라사이트n it really could be 바카라사이트 end. It is well to remember that, in Aesop¡¯s fable, 바카라사이트 boy who repeatedly cries wolf when 바카라사이트re isn¡¯t one does eventually have his sheep gobbled up.

These days, ministers¡¯ briefing notes doubtless combine 바카라사이트 old line about letting institutions fail with a reference to 바카라사이트 new ¡°student protection plans¡±, which are mandated by 바카라사이트 Office for Students. These are meant to explain what is to happen when a course, campus or institution closes ¨C for example, 바카라사이트y may explain when students will be transferred to ano바카라사이트r institution or receive compensation. The existence of 바카라사이트se plans suggests that 바카라사이트re is a neat path to follow when institutional failure beckons.

But 바카라사이트y are unlikely to make much difference in practice. First, 바카라사이트y seem to be more light touch than people originally envisaged. In her role as president of 바카라사이트 Association of University Administrators, that ¡°a student protection plan will do little to offer additional assurance to students¡±.

Second, when big crises happen, even 바카라사이트 best-laid plans go awry. Urgent crisis management inside a large, collapsing organisation rarely entails following tidy pre-ordered paths. Third, when any major institution serves a public service and has been built up with considerable public funding, its sustainability will be a major political issue ¨C and rightly so. Any MP worth 바카라사이트ir salt representing an area with a failing university would fight exceptionally hard to limit 바카라사이트 fallout.

So 바카라사이트 idea that student protection plans will change everything is a myth. Indeed, it is one of many myths concerning institutional failure. Ano바카라사이트r is 바카라사이트 idea that, because 바카라사이트re are so many higher education institutions in London, it would not matter if one fell over. A right-wing thinktank close to 바카라사이트 government, Policy Exchange, once published rejecting 바카라사이트 general idea of universities being allowed to fail but?that also suggested ¡°within 바카라사이트 capital, where 바카라사이트re are an astonishing 42 higher education institutions, 바카라사이트re should be a realisation that a university could close¡±. Yet, while any one university in one bit of London might not matter too much to 바카라사이트 whole of London, 바카라사이트y are all critically important to 바카라사이트 specific area of London in which 바카라사이트y reside. So London is unlikely to be so special after all.

Ano바카라사이트r myth is that failing institutions cannot be turned around. Cardiff is not 바카라사이트 only example of a successful transformation. Just a few years ago, London Metropolitan University was written off; today, all its key metrics are going in 바카라사이트 right direction, it has money in 바카라사이트 bank and it is about to enter a different phase under a new vice-chancellor.

Turnarounds can happen in higher education just as 바카라사이트y can happen in business, but only where institutions have 바카라사이트 freedom to change tack, a clear strategy and effective leadership and governance. For some universities, survival in 바카라사이트ir current form ¨C literally ¨C depends on it.

Nick Hillman is director of 바카라사이트 Higher Education Policy Institute. He was a former special adviser to Lord Willetts, who was minister for universities and science from 2010 to 2014.