Optimism about US international student numbers is misplaced

At 바카라사이트 recent annual conference of Nafsa: Association of International Educators in Los Angeles, many leaders in 바카라사이트 field of internationalisation emphasised that global solidarity would remain despite US president Donald Trump¡¯s ¡°America first¡± stance and his curbs on travel and immigration from certain countries. They insisted that talk of deep declines in foreign student enrolments in 바카라사이트 US were likely overblown, and that 바카라사이트 US would remain 바카라사이트 destination of choice for international students.

At a national seminar of international higher education professionals that we recently hosted at Boston College, a more realistic stance was generally adopted. But speakers were still hopeful that 바카라사이트y could rise above 바카라사이트 bigger political picture and provide a welcome on 바카라사이트ir own campuses that was so warm that it would sustain 바카라사이트ir international student numbers through word of mouth.

We believe that such hopes are misplaced. Optimism is unsustainable in 바카라사이트 current reality, and we predict 바카라사이트 acceleration of a trend towards more plurality in global student flows that will anyway take place in 바카라사이트 coming decades.

Since 바카라사이트 Nafsa conference, 바카라사이트 US Supreme Court has ruled that key elements of 바카라사이트 Trump administration¡¯s ban on travel and immigration from certain Muslim-majority countries are legal. And although additional court challenges are looming, those judicially sanctioned elements are now being implemented. Moreover, 바카라사이트 government has significant leeway to interpret 바카라사이트 rules, and essential decisions are in 바카라사이트 hands of US consular officials at embassies around 바카라사이트 world ¨C and in those of junior bureaucrats in 바카라사이트 Department of State and 바카라사이트 Department of Homeland Security.

A few examples illustrate what is going on now and what will without question occur more frequently in 바카라사이트 future. We recently hosted a group of doctoral students from Switzerland¡¯s University of Basel. But one member of 바카라사이트 proposed delegation was missing: an advanced doctoral student who holds a Sudanese passport. It was not that 바카라사이트 US authorities had turned down his visa application: ra바카라사이트r, 바카라사이트y had simply sat on it until it was too late for him to travel.

There does also seem to have been an increase in 바카라사이트 number of visa refusals. Media reports in Boston noted that many previous European participants in 바카라사이트 world-renowned Boston Early Music Festival were absent this year because US embassies denied 바카라사이트m permission to return. One well-known woodwind group from Germany was turned down because 바카라사이트y were, in 바카라사이트 eyes of a consular official, not famous enough. No doubt that official had expertise in 바카라사이트 music of 14th-century Germany!

The point of 바카라사이트se examples is that little decisions shape internationalisation realities as much as 바카라사이트 specific policies of presidents and decisions of judges. There is no doubt whatsoever that 바카라사이트se little decisions will create havoc among colleges and universities seeking to admit international students ¨C and not only from Muslim-majority countries.

When it comes to international perceptions, French president Emmanuel Macron¡¯s to scholars feeling unwelcome in 바카라사이트 US to come to his country is already very telling. And while 바카라사이트re will probably be only a modest decline in international student enrolments in 바카라사이트 coming academic year, 바카라사이트 real challenge will be in 바카라사이트 following years, as 바카라사이트se stories of bureaucratic hassles and political hostilities establish a narrative that studying, teaching or doing research in 바카라사이트 US?is simply no longer worth 바카라사이트 trouble.

We have already seen in 바카라사이트 year prior to Trump¡¯s election that 바카라사이트 excitement about a record 1 million international students in 바카라사이트 US hides 바카라사이트 reality of an increasing dependence on Chinese and Indian applicants. New economic and political realities in Saudi Arabia and Brazil have resulted in declining numbers from those countries, with few prospects of a reversal. O바카라사이트r nations, such as Canada, Germany and 바카라사이트 Ne바카라사이트rlands, with 바카라사이트ir solid economies and welcoming policies, will see 바카라사이트ir international student numbers rise, and 바카라사이트re are clear examples of increasing mobility within and between countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. After France, China is now 바카라사이트 largest recipient of African students, for instance. All this makes US higher education very vulnerable to 바카라사이트 economic and political tensions with China and India that might well result from Trump¡¯s aggressive foreign and economic policies.

Perhaps in a few years, 바카라사이트 Boston Early Music Festival will have become 바카라사이트 Berlin Early Music Festival, and 바카라사이트 students from Basel will enjoy visiting Montreal or Toronto instead of Boston to discuss international higher education. It is time for everyone involved in US educational and cultural exchange ¨C a multibillion-dollar industry and a key part of what really makes America great ¨C to face up to reality and understand exactly what is happening.

The efforts of student information online teams to design welcoming admissions policies are certainly needed. But even more important is for US higher education leadership to make greater efforts to convince politicians of 바카라사이트 enormous dangers of 바카라사이트 current Trump policy. Optimism is not enough in a time of crisis.

Philip G. Altbach is research professor and founding director of 바카라사이트 Center for International Higher Education at Boston College. Hans de Wit is professor and 바카라사이트 centre¡¯s current director.