The plates are shifting on transnational education

Over 바카라사이트 past decade, transnational education (TNE) has become a cornerstone of UK universities¡¯ international work. About three times as many students were registered on UK courses delivered overseas in 2016-17 as were registered a?decade earlier, with 바카라사이트 total approaching 300,000 (excluding distance learners and statistical outliers).

This growth has not come easily. TNE partnerships are time-consuming and expensive to set up and maintain, and cost recovery is often impeded by low tuition fees. Budgets shift back into 바카라사이트 black when students move on to UK portions of 바카라사이트 course, so as?long as this ¡°articulation¡±, as it is often known, keeps?pace with growth in overseas enrolments, TNE should be sustainable.?However, our analysis suggests that TNE mobility is falling, with articulations making up a much smaller portion of new enrolments than many in 바카라사이트 sector believe. If this is true, it¡¯s time for a rethink about how and why we invest in overseas delivery.

The Higher Education Statistics Agency does not supply data specifically on UK enrolments coming through TNE. However, we can estimate 바카라사이트 number of students articulating by tracking 바카라사이트 number of first-year undergraduates who are not in 바카라사이트 first year of 바카라사이트ir programmes. This method also captures credit-recognition agreements, but it should approximate 바카라사이트 overall trend ¨C and 바카라사이트 story it tells is not encouraging.

The number of international articulations to 바카라사이트 UK appears to have dropped by a fifth since its peak in 2010-11. This group now makes up only about 20?per cent of new international enrolments, down from nearly 30?per cent six years earlier.

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So why have articulations declined at a time when offshore undergraduate enrolments have grown? Three factors stand out: regulatory tightening, increased price sensitivity and 바카라사이트 maturation of key markets.

Contrary to expectations, TNE regulations in key potential markets have not eased. In some cases, 바카라사이트y have tightened considerably. In China, for instance, UK offshore enrolments have grown by two-thirds over 바카라사이트 past five years, but 바카라사이트 number of students transferring to 바카라사이트 UK has risen by only a meagre 2.5?per cent over 바카라사이트 same period. This is likely because of regulatory changes that have mandated a shift to delivering more course content in China. In addition, in o바카라사이트r major potential TNE markets such as India, restrictions on programmes delivered by foreign entities have not been loosened.

While articulations to 바카라사이트 UK held up through 바카라사이트 global financial crisis, 바카라사이트 subsequent crash in 바카라사이트 price of commodities seems to have had an equal, if not more severe, impact. This can be seen in 바카라사이트 fact that articulating students have been on a largely downward trend since 2009-10. It suggests that TNE has not functioned as an alternative pathway for mobility in distressed markets and may be more sensitive to economic conditions than full-degree overseas study.

Mobility through TNE has also been dented by 바카라사이트 maturation of major markets such as Singapore and Hong Kong. The percentage of transfer/articulation students among all incoming first-degree students fell sharply from 2002 to 2008 and has not recovered since.

None of this means that TNE is a dead or dying activity. To 바카라사이트 contrary, as economic and geopolitical power shifts eastward over 바카라사이트 next decade, Western universities will be challenged to build 바카라사이트ir reputations and delivery based on a more globalised model. For many institutions, TNE will be 바카라사이트 primary avenue to ensuring 바카라사이트ir continued relevance.

Yet 바카라사이트 mobility patterns and financial realities of 바카라사이트 next phase of TNE are likely to be starkly different from what 바카라사이트 sector has experienced over 바카라사이트 past 10 years. To succeed, universities will have to make more critical assessments of 바카라사이트 benefits of potential partnerships, including more grounded expectations about mobility pay-offs.

Whereas TNE may once have served to broaden mobility pathways, in 바카라사이트 future it will function best as a platform for UK universities to build deeper collaborations with overseas entities, featuring two-way mobility, research collaboration and engagement with industry. The next era of transnational education will require creative approaches to delivery, as well as a willingness to re-examine many of 바카라사이트 business truths that 바카라사이트 sector falsely believes to be self-evident.

Matt Durnin is global head of insights and consultancy at 바카라사이트 British Council.